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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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84168252336 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for individualized decision rules

Paper extends transfer learning for decision rules, improving treatment rule estimation.

problem Estimating optimal individualized treatment rules under changing conditions.
method Bayes decision rules and low-dimensional empirical risk minimization.
result Consistent estimators and risk bounds established under mild conditions.

LI-ITR combines flexible ML with interpretable approximations for personalized treatment rules.

problem Combining flexibility and interpretability in personalized treatment rules.
method Uses variational autoencoders and a mixture of interpretable experts.
result Accurately recovers true local coefficients and optimal treatment strategies.

RISE learns decisions with sensitive variables, improving worst-case outcomes.

problem Uncertainty and bias in decisions due to delayed sensitive variable data.
method Incorporates sensitive variables offline but not at deployment, using quantile or infimum optimization.
result Improves worst-case outcomes for individuals affected by unavailable sensitive variables.

The paper develops deep learning models for personalized treatment rules in survival analysis.

problem Deriving optimal treatment rules for bivariate survival outcomes in randomized trials.
method Adaptive prediction-powered learning using deep neural networks and stochastic policies.
result Maximizes joint survival probability beyond fixed time points (t1,t2)(t_1, t_2).

Paper proposes a new framework for individualized treatment rules that generalize better across different distributions.

problem Existing individualized treatment rules may not generalize well when training and testing distributions differ.
method Distributionally robust individualized treatment rules (DR-ITR) framework that maximizes worst-case value function across close distributions.
result Calibrated DR-ITR outperforms standard ITR in generalizability.

The paper tackles individualized decision-making under unmeasured confounding, providing a novel minimax solution and a paradox.

problem Unmeasured confounding in causal inference leads to biased estimates and affects individualized decision-making.
method The authors establish a formal link between individualized decision-making under partial identification and classical decision theory, providing a minimax solution and a paradox.
result A novel minimax solution for individualized decision-making/policy assignment is provided, and an interesting paradox is drawn.

Fuses ITRs for primary and secondary outcomes to minimize harm.

problem Learn an ITR maximizing primary outcome while minimizing harm to secondary outcomes.
method Introduces fusion penalty to encourage similar recommendations for different outcomes. Two algorithms estimate the ITR using surrogate loss functions.
result Agreement rate between primary and secondary optimal ITRs converges faster than ignoring secondary outcomes.

Consequential decision-making typically incentivizes individuals to behave strategically, tailoring their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. A long line of work has therefore sought to counteract strategic behavior by designing more conservative decision boundaries in an effort to increase robustness to th…

2018-08-25abs ↗pdf ↗

RL algorithms with medical integration improve personalized treatment recommendations.

problem Developing effective personalized treatment strategies for chronic diseases.
method Integrating medical knowledge into RL algorithms for DTR.
result Enhanced treatment recommendations with increased confidence.

Proposes robust ITRs integrating multiple datasets to handle posterior shift.

problem Posterior shift in conditional outcome distributions between source and target populations.
method Distributionally robust approach with closed-form solution and adaptive uncertainty tuning.
result Achieves superior performance compared to existing methods in simulations and real-data applications.

A new method improves efficiency in finding optimal personalized treatment rules.

problem Heteroscedasticity and misspecified treatment-free effect models affect optimal ITR estimation.
method E-Learning framework that accounts for covariate-treatment dependent variance of residuals.
result E-Learning framework improves efficiency of optimal ITR estimation.

New approach tackles decision-making under predictions that shape outcomes.

problem Challenges in learning optimal decision rules when predictions influence outcomes.
method Introduces performative omniprediction, a predictor that encodes optimal decision rules for multiple objectives.
result Efficient performative omnipredictors exist under a natural restriction of outcome performativity.

Novel approach for creating interpretable classifiers using bilevel optimization of split-rules in NLDTs.

problem Creating highly accurate and easily interpretable classifiers for practical applications.
method Representing classifiers as assemblies of simple mathematical rules using NLDTs with evolutionary bilevel optimization.
result The approach ensures interpretability while achieving high accuracy on various classification problems.

A standard belief on emerging collective behavior is that it emerges from simple individual rules. Most of the mathematical research on such collective behavior starts from imperative individual rules, like always go to the center. But how could an (optimal) individual rule emerge during a short period within the group…

2018-02-21abs ↗pdf ↗

GEAR uses auxiliary data to estimate optimal decisions in studies with limited primary outcomes.

problem Estimating optimal decisions when primary outcomes are not available in experimental samples.
method GEAR uses augmented inverse propensity weighting to estimate optimal decisions based on auxiliary data.
result GEAR estimators and value estimators have established asymptotic properties and are validated in simulations and a real application.

The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.

problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.

There is tremendous interest in precision medicine as a means to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment to individual characteristics. An individualized treatment rule formalizes precision medicine as a map from patient information to a recommended treatment. A treatment rule is defined to be optimal if it max…

2017-11-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new method to explain model predictions for consumer recourse.

problem Current explanation methods fail to provide meaningful recourse to decision subjects.
method Develops feature responsiveness scores to highlight actionable features.
result Standard practices can undermine decision subjects by highlighting unresponsive features.

Proposes sparse local and regional counterfactual rules for robust recourses.

problem Challenges in counterfactual explanations, especially stability, synthesis, and implementation.
method Probabilistic framework using Random Forest to derive sparse local and regional counterfactual rules.
result Effective recourses derived from high-density regions, providing sparse and robust counterfactual rules.

Unified stopping rules ensure accurate policies in contextual learning.

problem Stopping data collection to ensure accurate policies in personalized decision problems.
method Developed unified stopping rules based on GLR statistics for pairwise action comparisons.
result Unified stopping rules achieve target precision with fewer samples than benchmarks.

Algorithms are often used to produce decision-making rules that classify or evaluate individuals. When these individuals have incentives to be classified a certain way, they may behave strategically to influence their outcomes. We develop a model for how strategic agents can invest effort in order to change the outcome…

2018-07-13abs ↗pdf ↗

VisRuler simplifies decision extraction from bagged and boosted trees.

problem Complexity and lack of interpretability in ensemble models.
method Visual analytics tool for selecting robust models, important features, and essential decisions.
result Users successfully extracted and explained decisions from ensemble models.

Developed a new algorithm to improve dynamic treatment regimens.

problem Non-convergence of Q-learning-based Q-shared algorithm in dynamic treatment regimens.
method Penalized Q-shared algorithm to address convergence issues.
result The penalized Q-shared algorithm converges and outperforms the original in various settings.

Consequential decision-making incentivizes individuals to strategically adapt their behavior to the specifics of the decision rule. While a long line of work has viewed strategic adaptation as gaming and attempted to mitigate its effects, recent work has instead sought to design classifiers that incentivize individuals…

2019-10-23abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper develops methods to estimate optimal treatment sequences under policy constraints.

problem Estimating the best sequence of treatments over multiple stages for individuals.
method Empirical welfare maximization approach, solving treatment assignment sequentially or simultaneously.
result Established convergence rates and upper bounds for estimation methods.

New decision-theoretic characterization separates belief and decision posteriors.

problem Understanding the conditions under which loss-based updating coincides with Bayesian updating.
method Decision-theoretic approach to distinguish belief and decision posteriors.
result Generalized Bayes coincides with ordinary Bayesian updating only if the loss is proportional to negative log-likelihood.

Deep nets exhibit 'Neural Collapse' during training's final phase, simplifying decision-making.

problem Understanding and optimizing deep learning training phases.
method Direct measurements on three deepnet architectures across seven datasets.
result Deep nets exhibit 'Neural Collapse' during training's final phase, simplifying decision-making.

From doctors diagnosing patients to judges setting bail, experts often base their decisions on experience and intuition rather than on statistical models. While understandable, relying on intuition over models has often been found to result in inferior outcomes. Here we present a new method, select-regress-and-round, f…

2017-02-15abs ↗pdf ↗

New algorithms optimize decision rules in strategic scenarios, minimizing prediction risk and incentivizing better outcomes.

problem Strategic agents manipulate features to improve outcomes, complicating decision-making models.
method Efficient algorithms for learning decision rules that minimize prediction risk, incentivize better outcomes, and estimate true model coefficients.
result Optimal decision rules can be learned through testing and observing agent responses, circumventing hardness results.

This work proposes optimal decision rules for hierarchical classifiers to better align with evaluation metrics.

problem Heuristic decision rules in hierarchical classification do not align with evaluation metrics.
method Derives optimal decision rules for various prediction settings, focusing on hierarchical hFβhF_β scores.
result Optimal decision rules enhance the performance and reliability of hierarchical classifiers.

Sparse oblique decision tree improves security rules for renewable power systems.

problem Identifying secure operating conditions in power systems with high renewable energy.
method Sparse weighted oblique decision tree to learn and embed linear security rules.
result The method significantly increases secure states and reduces solution time.