A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method finds balanced clusters in graphs using auxiliary information.
Consistent spectral clustering with fairness constraints on representation graphs.
The discovery of clinical biomarkers requires large patient cohorts and is aided by a pooled data approach across institutions. In many countries, data protection constraints, especially in the clinical environment, forbid the exchange of individual-level data between different research institutes, impeding the conduct…
A neural framework corrects bias in estimating individual treatment effects.
Synthetic population generation is the process of combining multiple socioeconomic and demographic datasets from different sources and/or granularity levels, and downscaling them to an individual level. Although it is a fundamental step for many data science tasks, an efficient and standard framework is absent. In this…
Unified theory for semiparametric data fusion with individual-level data.
Study off-policy evaluation and learning in dynamic pricing with context.
Proposes a deep learning method for modeling dynamic individual-level latent trajectories with changing parameters.
New diagnostics detect variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare.
In many contexts, we have access to aggregate data, but individual level data is unavailable. For example, medical studies sometimes report only aggregate statistics about disease prevalence because of privacy concerns. Even so, many a time it is desirable, and in fact could be necessary to infer individual level chara…
Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
We present a new modeling technique for solving the problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level associations are inferred from labeled data available only at the aggregate level. We model aggregate count data as arising from the Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identic…
Learning nonlinear dynamics from diffusion data is a challenging problem since the individuals observed may be different at different time points, generally following an aggregate behaviour. Existing work cannot handle the tasks well since they model such dynamics either directly on observations or enforce the availabi…
Databases in domains such as healthcare are routinely released to the public in aggregated form. Unfortunately, naive modeling with aggregated data may significantly diminish the accuracy of inferences at the individual level. This paper addresses the scenario where features are provided at the individual level, but th…
In critical decision-making scenarios, optimizing accuracy can lead to a biased classifier, hence past work recommends enforcing group-based fairness metrics in addition to maximizing accuracy. However, doing so exposes the classifier to another kind of bias called infra-marginality. This refers to individual-level bia…
We consider the problem of Bayesian learning on sensitive datasets and present two simple but somewhat surprising results that connect Bayesian learning to "differential privacy:, a cryptographic approach to protect individual-level privacy while permiting database-level utility. Specifically, we show that that under s…
SYNC generates synthetic data from aggregated sources using Gaussian copulas.
The causal effect of a treatment can vary from person to person based on their individual characteristics and predispositions. Mining for patterns of individual-level effect differences, a problem known as heterogeneous treatment effect estimation, has many important applications, from precision medicine to recommender…
New framework for forecasting psychological processes from ILD.
A new method for deep learning imbalance or noise, ABSGD, improves efficiency and effectiveness.
ClusterSC improves synthetic control by selecting relevant donor groups.
We propose a new family of fairness definitions for classification problems that combine some of the best properties of both statistical and individual notions of fairness. We posit not only a distribution over individuals, but also a distribution over (or collection of) classification tasks. We then ask that standard …
New fairness criteria for algorithmic recourse actions that consider causal relationships.
Proposes a method to use external machine-learning predictions in multinomial logistic regression.
Bridges uplift modeling and sequential decision-making with online budget allocation.
Predictive models are being increasingly used to support consequential decision making at the individual level in contexts such as pretrial bail and loan approval. As a result, there is increasing social and legal pressure to provide explanations that help the affected individuals not only to understand why a predictio…
Machine learning assesses group collaboration in classrooms.
CRISP predicts individual-level COVID-19 risk based on contact data.
Disease progression models are instrumental in predicting individual-level health trajectories and understanding disease dynamics. Existing models are capable of providing either accurate predictions of patients prognoses or clinically interpretable representations of disease pathophysiology, but not both. In this pape…
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the availability of large-scale data from social networks and sensor networks offers an…
New method handles uncertainty in causal effect estimation for better decision-making.
New framework identifies worst-case shifts for predictive resource allocation models.
Study examines cryptocurrency volatility factors using high-frequency data.
Symbolic data analysis (SDA) is an emerging area of statistics concerned with understanding and modelling data that takes distributional form (i.e. symbols), such as random lists, intervals and histograms. It was developed under the premise that the statistical unit of interest is the symbol, and that inference is requ…
New method refines prediction intervals for individual treatment effects using cross-world correlation.
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a target population. We propose a new evaluation metr…
We study how language on social media is linked to diseases such as atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD), diabetes and various types of cancer. Our proposed model leverages state-of-the-art sentence embeddings, followed by a regression model and clustering, without the need of additional labelled data. It allows to pred…
Time series models such as dynamical systems are frequently fitted to a cohort of data, ignoring variation between individual entities such as patients. In this paper we show how these models can be personalised to an individual level while retaining statistical power, via use of multi-task learning (MTL). To our knowl…
In many practical tasks it is needed to estimate an effect of treatment on individual level. For example, in medicine it is essential to determine the patients that would benefit from a certain medicament. In marketing, knowing the persons that are likely to buy a new product would reduce the amount of spam. In this ch…
To predict the employee attrition beforehand and to enable management to take individualized preventive action. Using Ensemble classification modeling techniques and Linear Regression. Model could predict over 91% accurate employee prediction, lead-time in separation and individual reasons causing attrition. Prior inti…
Enhances disease progression modeling using LLMs for complex brain connectivity.
Deep learning models have been criticized for their lack of easy interpretation, which undermines confidence in their use for important applications. Nevertheless, they are consistently utilized in many applications, consequential to humans' lives, mostly because of their better performance. Therefore, there is a great…
Develops a method to estimate personalized treatment regimes from summary statistics.
Are cryptocurrency traders driven by a desire to invest in a new asset class to diversify their portfolio or are they merely seeking to increase their levels of risk? To answer this question, we use individual-level brokerage data and study their behavior in stock trading around the time they engage in their first cryp…
Paper proposes a method to estimate multiple dynamic quantiles jointly.
Study improves motor insurance claim prediction using geographic data.
Stable cooperation emerges in fluctuating environments.
Summary statistics of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) teach causal relationship between millions of genetic markers and tens and thousands of phenotypes. However, underlying biological mechanisms are yet to be elucidated. We can achieve necessary interpretation of GWAS in a causal mediation framework, looking to…