Study stability of trading strategy under market perturbations.
problem Dynamic stability of trading strategy under market changes.
method Established reverse conjugacy characterizations, proved continuity and convergence of indirect utility process.
result Continuity and first-order convergence of indirect utility process under market perturbations.
This study measures price risk aversion using indirect utility functions in a lab experiment.
problem Measuring risk aversion with uncertain prices in experimental economics.
method Using indirect utility functions and a multiple price list method in a lab experiment.
result Price risk aversion is statistically greater than payoff risk aversion.
Optimal reinsurance contracts designed for a continuum of risk types.
problem Designing optimal reinsurance contracts with a continuum of risk types.
method Principal-agent model, VaR at risk tolerance level, change of variables, univariate approach.
result Optimal reinsurance contracts are in stop-loss form, classifying agents into high and low risk groups.
Study shows cooperation can improve everyone's market efficiency.
problem Understanding when collective cooperation improves market efficiency.
method General semimartingale framework, deriving necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Strict improvement in each agent's indirect utility when cooperation is beneficial.
We study the sensitivity of the expected utility maximization problem in a continuous semi-martingale market with respect to small changes in the market price of risk. Assuming that the preferences of a rational economic agent are modeled with a general utility function, we obtain a second-order expansion of the value …
The comparative statics of the optimal portfolios across individuals is carried out for a continuous-time complete market model, where the risky assets price process follows a joint geometric Brownian motion with time-dependent and deterministic coefficients. It turns out that the indirect utility functions inherit the…
This article presents a proof of the existence of Bertrand-Nash equilibrium prices with multi-product firms and under the Logit model of demand that does not rely on restrictive assumptions on product characteristics, firm homogeneity or symmetry, product costs, or linearity of the utility function. The proof is based …
Weakly-supervised learning is a paradigm for alleviating the scarcity of labeled data by leveraging lower-quality but larger-scale supervision signals. While existing work mainly focuses on utilizing a certain type of weak supervision, we present a probabilistic framework, learning from indirect observations, for learn…
Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
problem Identifying causal direct effects under unmeasured confounding.
method Developed relaxed conditions for identifying natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
result Identified natural direct effect under unmeasured confounding conditions.
Paper tackles RUL prediction with scarce data using indirect supervision.
problem Predicting RUL with indirect supervision and scarce time series data.
method Unified framework called parameterized static regression, handling data scarcity without interpolation.
result Competitive performance in prediction accuracy with simulated data scarcity.
Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have been successfully applied to a range of challenging sequential decision making and control tasks. In this paper, we classify RL into direct and indirect RL according to how they seek the optimal policy of the Markov decision process problem. The former solves the optimal poli…
This paper studies how to capture dependency graph structures from real data which may not be Gaussian. Starting from marginal loss functions not necessarily derived from probability distributions, we utilize an additive over-parametrization with shrinkage to incorporate variable dependencies into the criterion. An ite…
Proposes a new estimator for causal mediation with continuous treatments.
problem Estimation of direct and indirect effects with continuous treatments.
method Kernel smoothing approach with cross-fitting for non-parametric estimation.
result Multiply robust and asymptotically normal estimator for continuous treatments.
Estimates causal effects using machine learning for binary treatment and mediator.
problem Estimating direct and indirect quantile treatment effects under selection-on-observables.
method Double/debiased machine learning estimators based on efficient score functions.
result Uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of effect estimators.
In a market with stochastic investment opportunities, we study an optimal consumption investment problem for an agent with recursive utility of Epstein-Zin type. Focusing on the empirically relevant specification where both risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution are in excess of one, we characterize…
This paper learns prior models from indirect data efficiently.
problem Learning prior models from indirect data in Bayesian inversion.
method Generative model of prior as pushforward of Gaussian in latent space, learned by minimizing loss function.
result Efficient residual-based neural operator approximation for forward model learning.
This paper studies communication efficiency in federated learning by optimizing the sum-rate-distortion function for indirect multiterminal source coding.
problem Indirect multiterminal source coding in federated learning where edge devices send noisy gradients to the server.
method Analyzes the rate region for the quadratic vector Gaussian CEO problem under unbiased estimator and derives an explicit formula for the sum-rate-distortion function.
result Derives an explicit formula for the sum-rate-distortion function in the special case of identical gradients over edge devices.
MediEncoder learns nonlinear representations for causal mediation analysis.
problem High-dimensional noisy covariates and mediators in biomedical studies.
method Coupled encoder-decoder architecture with cross-factor network.
result Improves estimation accuracy in high-dimensional causal mediation analysis.
Investigates stability of Epstein-Zin problem under market distortions.
problem Stability of Epstein-Zin problem in incomplete markets.
method Analyzes perturbations in returns and volatility, and interest rate; proves convergence of optimal solutions.
result Proves convergence of optimal consumption streams and value functions in the limit of model perturbations.
Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of financial contagion arises from indirect interconnections between financial insti…
Investors optimize equity and CDS trading to mitigate default risk.
problem Optimizing investment in equity and CDS markets to manage default risk.
method Semi-linear PDE for certainty equivalent, proving existence and optimality of policies.
result Optimal CDS policies cover both equity and future trading losses, increasing investor utility.
Paper proposes an algorithm to learn DAGs with indirect dependencies.
problem Learning DAGs misses indirect dependencies in local variables.
method Two-phase algorithm using high-order HSIC for local optimization.
result OT algorithm outperforms existing methods in structure estimation.
New benchmark PVR tests neural network reasoning about indirection.
problem Understanding neural network generalization limits.
method Introducing Pointer Value Retrieval (PVR) benchmark.
result Large variations in performance across different conditions.
Machine learning models trained on indirect data labels can fail on real-world examples.
problem Validity issues in machine learning when target labels are indirectly defined.
method Identification of problematic datasets and models using a general procedure.
result Machine learning models trained on indirect data labels will fail on real-world examples.
Unified framework for learning with indirect supervision signals.
problem Learning from indirect supervision signals when gold labels are missing or costly.
method Developed a unified theoretical framework for multi-class classification with variable supervision.
result Introduced the concept of separation to characterize learnability and generalization bounds.
PLRM synthesizes labels from mismatched sources for better training sets.
problem Creating labeled training sets is a major challenge in machine learning.
method PLRM uses probabilistic modeling to synthesize labels from indirect supervision sources with different output spaces.
result PLRM outperforms baselines by 2%-9% on various tasks.
We address the problem of gauging the influence exerted by a given country on the global trade market from the viewpoint of complex networks. In particular, we apply the PWP method for computing indirect influences on the world trade network.
Informed traders strategically reveal noisier signals, making prices less responsive to public information.
problem How informed traders strategically reveal signals impacts market prices and utility.
method Modeling a market with an informed trader, an uninformed trader, and liquidity providers, proving equilibrium existence.
result In equilibrium, the insider strategically reveals a noisier signal, making prices less responsive to public information.
Unified framework for estimating indirect effects in observational studies with unmeasured confounding.
problem Challenges in evaluating indirect effects due to unmeasured confounding and unethical exposures.
method Developed a unified identification and estimation framework using proximal causal inference.
result Unified identification and estimation of PIIE and causal effect of an intervening variable in settings with pervasive unmeasured confounding.
New methods resolve conflicting treatment effect estimates in health tech assessments.
problem Conflicting conclusions from different sponsors analyzing the same data.
method Arbitrated indirect treatment comparisons (ArMAIC) targeting a common target population.
result Estimates treatment effects in a common target population, resolving the MAIC paradox.
This study compares direct and indirect methods for estimating own funds in life insurance, finding indirect methods more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling.
problem Computing own funds for life insurers using direct and indirect methods in a risk-neutral pricing framework.
method Introduced a novel family of mixed estimators including both direct and indirect methods, integrated into a control variate framework for variance reduction.
result The indirect method is more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling, but neither method is universally superior.
The relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the main features of globalization. In this paper we investigate the effects of FDI on trade from a network perspective, since FDI takes not only direct but also indirect channels from origin to destination countries because of f…
This paper studies the problem of {\em learning} the probability distribution PX of a discrete random variable X using indirect and sequential samples. At each time step, we choose one of the possible K functions, g1,…,gK and observe the corresponding sample gi(X). The goal is to estimate the proba…
New method for learning indirectly through control variables.
problem Learning relationships when direct manipulation of variables is impossible.
method Study of indirect active learning under nonparametric models with fixed budget.
result Minimax rates for estimating relationships between variables.
New method handles indirect mediators in CMA for complex scenarios.
problem Handling indirect and multi-dimensional mediators in causal mediation analysis.
method Identifiable Variational Autoencoder (iVAE) architecture for multi-dimensional, indirectly observed mediators.
result Accurate estimation of direct and mediated effects in synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments.
Decomposes bias in linear models under demographic parity constraints.
problem Understanding and quantifying bias in linear models under fairness constraints.
method Post-processing framework to decompose bias into direct and indirect components.
result Analytical characterization of how demographic parity reshapes model coefficients.
Develops exact and invariant study-based decompositions for network meta-analysis.
problem Lack of exact contribution decompositions in network meta-analysis.
method Contrast-space projection formulation of NMA, study-based definition of direct and indirect evidence.
result Exact covariance-aware decompositions of NMA estimator into direct and indirect contributions.
AI detects 38% NFT trades likely manipulated, improving on indirect methods.
problem Detecting crypto wash trading using indirect methods and leaked data.
method Public NFT data analysis, direct estimation, AI-based estimator.
result AI reduces estimation errors in NFT markets, improving on indirect methods.
The study tackles indirect discrimination in insurance pricing models.
problem Indirect discrimination in insurance pricing models.
method Presented a statistical model free of proxy discrimination.
result The canonical price in the model does not satisfy group fairness axioms.
FairDTD improves fairness in GNNs by distilling dual teacher knowledge, balancing utility and bias.
problem Bias in GNN predictions due to sensitive attributes.
method Dual-Teacher Distillation with a causal graph model, feature and structure teachers, and graph-level distillation.
result Achieves optimal fairness while preserving high model utility.
Paper introduces IAD for detecting anomalous VMMs in cloud without VMM access.
problem Anomalous VMMs in cloud-based environments without direct access.
method IAD: Indirect Anomalous VMMs Detection algorithm using VM resource utilization data.
result IAD algorithm outperforms other methods with an average F1-score of 83.7%.
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…
Driven by the goal to enable sleep apnea monitoring and machine learning-based detection at home with small mobile devices, we investigate whether interpretation-based indirect knowledge transfer can be used to create classifiers with acceptable performance. Interpretation-based indirect knowledge transfer means that a…
This paper tackles structure learning in indirect observations of Gaussian and non-Gaussian random vectors.
problem Learning the graphical structure of random vectors indirectly observed through a sensing matrix and corrupted noise.
method Parametric and non-parametric approaches for Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributions, respectively.
result Correct graphical structure can be recovered under indefinite sensing systems with insufficient samples.
Global implicit function theorem for Fréchet spaces, solving derivative loss problems.
problem Solving initial value problems with derivative loss in Fréchet spaces.
method Global implicit function theorems for Keller's Cc1-mappings in Fréchet spaces, applied through submersions and transversality. result Global existence and uniqueness of solutions to initial value problems with derivative loss.
In this paper, we will discuss an approximation of the characteristic function of the first passage time for a Levy process using the martingale approach. The characteristic function of the first passage time of the tempered stable process is provided explicitly or by an indirect numerical method. This will be applied …
Extends causal inference to hidden mediators with proxies.
problem Identifying causal effects with hidden mediators and error-prone proxies.
method Established causal hidden mediation analysis and hidden front-door criterion.
result Identification of population intervention indirect effect possible with hidden mediators.
New method simplifies checking consistency of differentiable loss functions.
problem Verifying consistency of differentiable loss functions is difficult.
method Developed a new approach called strong indirect elicitation (strong IE) to simplify checking consistency.
result Strong IE is equivalent to calibration for strongly convex, differentiable surrogates.