Estimates causal effects using machine learning for binary treatment and mediator.
problem Estimating direct and indirect quantile treatment effects under selection-on-observables.
method Double/debiased machine learning estimators based on efficient score functions.
result Uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of effect estimators.
Unified framework for estimating indirect effects in observational studies with unmeasured confounding.
problem Challenges in evaluating indirect effects due to unmeasured confounding and unethical exposures.
method Developed a unified identification and estimation framework using proximal causal inference.
result Unified identification and estimation of PIIE and causal effect of an intervening variable in settings with pervasive unmeasured confounding.
New methods resolve conflicting treatment effect estimates in health tech assessments.
problem Conflicting conclusions from different sponsors analyzing the same data.
method Arbitrated indirect treatment comparisons (ArMAIC) targeting a common target population.
result Estimates treatment effects in a common target population, resolving the MAIC paradox.
The relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the main features of globalization. In this paper we investigate the effects of FDI on trade from a network perspective, since FDI takes not only direct but also indirect channels from origin to destination countries because of f…
Study relaxes identification assumptions for natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
problem Identifying causal direct effects under unmeasured confounding.
method Developed relaxed conditions for identifying natural direct effects in non-randomized settings.
result Identified natural direct effect under unmeasured confounding conditions.
This study compares direct and indirect methods for estimating own funds in life insurance, finding indirect methods more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling.
problem Computing own funds for life insurers using direct and indirect methods in a risk-neutral pricing framework.
method Introduced a novel family of mixed estimators including both direct and indirect methods, integrated into a control variate framework for variance reduction.
result The indirect method is more effective under realistic asset-liability coupling, but neither method is universally superior.
Indirect attacks can fool graph classifiers even with poisoned neighbors.
problem How to evaluate and defend graph convolutional neural networks against indirect adversarial attacks.
method Proposed a method to generate adversarial perturbations on a single node far from the target.
result 99% attack success rate within two-hops from the target in two datasets.
Extends causal inference to hidden mediators with proxies.
problem Identifying causal effects with hidden mediators and error-prone proxies.
method Established causal hidden mediation analysis and hidden front-door criterion.
result Identification of population intervention indirect effect possible with hidden mediators.
M-learner estimates treatment effects in mediation models with subgroup identification.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in mediation models.
method Four-step procedure: compute conditional effects, construct distance matrix, apply tSNE and K-means clustering, refine clusters.
result Validates robustness and effectiveness in real-world dataset.
Study stability of trading strategy under market perturbations.
problem Dynamic stability of trading strategy under market changes.
method Established reverse conjugacy characterizations, proved continuity and convergence of indirect utility process.
result Continuity and first-order convergence of indirect utility process under market perturbations.
Develops exact and invariant study-based decompositions for network meta-analysis.
problem Lack of exact contribution decompositions in network meta-analysis.
method Contrast-space projection formulation of NMA, study-based definition of direct and indirect evidence.
result Exact covariance-aware decompositions of NMA estimator into direct and indirect contributions.
In structured prediction problems where we have indirect supervision of the output, maximum marginal likelihood faces two computational obstacles: non-convexity of the objective and intractability of even a single gradient computation. In this paper, we bypass both obstacles for a class of what we call linear indirectl…
The goal of personalized decision making is to map a unit's characteristics to an action tailored to maximize the expected outcome for that unit. Obtaining high-quality mappings of this type is the goal of the dynamic regime literature. In healthcare settings, optimizing policies with respect to a particular causal pat…
We study the ever more integrated and ever more unbalanced trade relationships between European countries. To better capture the complexity of economic networks, we propose two global measures that assess the trade integration and the trade imbalances of the European countries. These measures are the network (or indire…
Study finds environmental liability insurance reduces industrial carbon emissions.
problem Reduction of industrial carbon emissions.
method Two-way fixed effect model using provincial (city) level panel data from 2010 to 2020.
result Environmental liability insurance reduces industrial carbon emissions at both direct and indirect levels, with varying effects.
Paper tackles RUL prediction with scarce data using indirect supervision.
problem Predicting RUL with indirect supervision and scarce time series data.
method Unified framework called parameterized static regression, handling data scarcity without interpolation.
result Competitive performance in prediction accuracy with simulated data scarcity.
Machine learning models trained on indirect data labels can fail on real-world examples.
problem Validity issues in machine learning when target labels are indirectly defined.
method Identification of problematic datasets and models using a general procedure.
result Machine learning models trained on indirect data labels will fail on real-world examples.
Unified framework for learning with indirect supervision signals.
problem Learning from indirect supervision signals when gold labels are missing or costly.
method Developed a unified theoretical framework for multi-class classification with variable supervision.
result Introduced the concept of separation to characterize learnability and generalization bounds.
Direct and indirect RL methods classified and compared.
problem Classifying RL methods for sequential decision making.
method Direct RL solves optimal policy directly, indirect RL solves Bellman equation.
result Direct and indirect RL methods are equivalent and can be unified.
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
problem Systemic physical climate risk in supply chains.
method Agent-based model integrating geospatial hazards and firm adaptation.
result Firms' adaptive strategies reduce disruption by 48%.
New method handles indirect mediators in CMA for complex scenarios.
problem Handling indirect and multi-dimensional mediators in causal mediation analysis.
method Identifiable Variational Autoencoder (iVAE) architecture for multi-dimensional, indirectly observed mediators.
result Accurate estimation of direct and mediated effects in synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments.
Researchers show how to secretly train models with hidden data, detect usage with high confidence.
problem Protecting training data from traceability in large language models.
method Gradient-based optimization to learn secret sequences absent from training data.
result Secret sequences can be learned by models without performance degradation, detectable with high confidence.
PLRM synthesizes labels from mismatched sources for better training sets.
problem Creating labeled training sets is a major challenge in machine learning.
method PLRM uses probabilistic modeling to synthesize labels from indirect supervision sources with different output spaces.
result PLRM outperforms baselines by 2%-9% on various tasks.
We address the problem of gauging the influence exerted by a given country on the global trade market from the viewpoint of complex networks. In particular, we apply the PWP method for computing indirect influences on the world trade network.
Study introduces a new method to estimate causal mediation with multiple mediators.
problem Estimating causal effects with multiple mediators and confounders.
method Simulates potential outcomes using parametric and nonparametric models.
result General approach to estimating various causal mediation quantities.
A fundamental problem in geostatistical modeling is to infer the heterogeneous geological field based on limited measurements and some prior spatial statistics. Semantic inpainting, a technique for image processing using deep generative models, has been recently applied for this purpose, demonstrating its effectiveness…
Study shows cooperation can improve everyone's market efficiency.
problem Understanding when collective cooperation improves market efficiency.
method General semimartingale framework, deriving necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Strict improvement in each agent's indirect utility when cooperation is beneficial.
Proposes a new estimator for causal mediation with continuous treatments.
problem Estimation of direct and indirect effects with continuous treatments.
method Kernel smoothing approach with cross-fitting for non-parametric estimation.
result Multiply robust and asymptotically normal estimator for continuous treatments.
Optimizes treatment allocation in networks considering indirect effects.
problem Finding optimal treatment allocation in network settings with interference.
method OTAPI: Optimizing Treatment Allocation in the Presence of Interference, integrating causal estimators into IM algorithms.
result OTAPI outperforms classic IM and UM approaches on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.
Weakly-supervised learning is a paradigm for alleviating the scarcity of labeled data by leveraging lower-quality but larger-scale supervision signals. While existing work mainly focuses on utilizing a certain type of weak supervision, we present a probabilistic framework, learning from indirect observations, for learn…
New method for learning indirectly through control variables.
problem Learning relationships when direct manipulation of variables is impossible.
method Study of indirect active learning under nonparametric models with fixed budget.
result Minimax rates for estimating relationships between variables.
Study compares estimators for causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators.
problem Estimating causal effects through multiple mediators in observational studies.
method Parametric and non-parametric estimators, including multiply robust and double machine learning approaches.
result Advanced estimators perform well across various settings and real data.
MediEncoder learns nonlinear representations for causal mediation analysis.
problem High-dimensional noisy covariates and mediators in biomedical studies.
method Coupled encoder-decoder architecture with cross-factor network.
result Improves estimation accuracy in high-dimensional causal mediation analysis.
The paper introduces a new method for interpreting model predictions by considering both direct and indirect effects.
problem Interpreting model predictions to understand the causes of decisions.
method Proposes a new approach to quantify feature relevance by combining different types of interpretations and measures.
result Integrates various types of interpretations and measures to provide meaningful insights into model predictions.
We present Vision-based Navigation with Language-based Assistance (VNLA), a grounded vision-language task where an agent with visual perception is guided via language to find objects in photorealistic indoor environments. The task emulates a real-world scenario in that (a) the requester may not know how to navigate to …
Identification of causal direction between a causal-effect pair from observed data has recently attracted much attention. Various methods based on functional causal models have been proposed to solve this problem, by assuming the causal process satisfies some (structural) constraints and showing that the reverse direct…
Financial markets are exposed to systemic risk, the risk that a substantial fraction of the system ceases to function and collapses. Systemic risk can propagate through different mechanisms and channels of contagion. One important form of financial contagion arises from indirect interconnections between financial insti…
This paper learns prior models from indirect data efficiently.
problem Learning prior models from indirect data in Bayesian inversion.
method Generative model of prior as pushforward of Gaussian in latent space, learned by minimizing loss function.
result Efficient residual-based neural operator approximation for forward model learning.
MinShap improves feature selection accuracy and stability in complex models.
problem Challenging feature selection in unknown non-linear relationships.
method Combines Shapley values with a modified approach to feature selection.
result MinShap outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in accuracy and stability.
Given a choice of metric on the Riemann surface, the regularized determinant of Laplacian (analytic torsion) is defined via the complex power of elliptic operators: det(Δ)=exp(−ζ′(0)) In this paper we gave an asymptotic effective estimate of analytic torsion under Arakelov metric. In particular, after taking th…
AI detects 38% NFT trades likely manipulated, improving on indirect methods.
problem Detecting crypto wash trading using indirect methods and leaked data.
method Public NFT data analysis, direct estimation, AI-based estimator.
result AI reduces estimation errors in NFT markets, improving on indirect methods.
The study tackles indirect discrimination in insurance pricing models.
problem Indirect discrimination in insurance pricing models.
method Presented a statistical model free of proxy discrimination.
result The canonical price in the model does not satisfy group fairness axioms.
A method to assess sensitivity to unmeasured confounding with sharp bounds.
problem Assessing the impact of unmeasured confounding on causal effects.
method Sets two intuitive parameters to estimate sensitivity intervals.
result Bounds on true causal effects can be tighter than existing methods.
New methods estimate interventional effects with multiple mediators using machine learning.
problem Estimating interventional effects with multiple mediators.
method Flexible machine learning techniques for estimation, with weak convergence results for confidence intervals.
result Closed-form confidence intervals and hypothesis tests for interventional mediation effects.
Study short-term wind power and speed predictions using machine learning.
problem Accurate short-term wind power and speed predictions for energy systems.
method Combining numerical weather prediction models with local observations, using machine learning for variable selection and forecasting.
result Improved wind power and speed predictions for 4-hour ahead using machine learning.
Driven by the goal to enable sleep apnea monitoring and machine learning-based detection at home with small mobile devices, we investigate whether interpretation-based indirect knowledge transfer can be used to create classifiers with acceptable performance. Interpretation-based indirect knowledge transfer means that a…
This paper tackles structure learning in indirect observations of Gaussian and non-Gaussian random vectors.
problem Learning the graphical structure of random vectors indirectly observed through a sensing matrix and corrupted noise.
method Parametric and non-parametric approaches for Gaussian and non-Gaussian distributions, respectively.
result Correct graphical structure can be recovered under indefinite sensing systems with insufficient samples.
The paper develops a new model to evaluate policies in complex temporal/spatial experiments.
problem Evaluating the impact of policies in experiments with temporal and spatial dependencies.
method Temporal/spatio-temporal Varying Coefficient Decision Process (VCDP) model, decomposing ATE into DE and IE.
result Effective estimation and inference of DE and IE with rigorous statistical analysis.