A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
SPLICE simulates incurred losses and their revisions.
Our article considers the class of recently developed stochastic models that combine claims payments and incurred losses information into a coherent reserving methodology. In particular, we develop a family of Heirarchical Bayesian Paid-Incurred-Claims models, combining the claims reserving models of Hertig et al. (198…
New formula identifies and quantifies costs for automated market makers.
We study the adversarial multi-armed bandit problem where partial observations are available and where, in addition to the loss incurred for each action, a \emph{switching cost} is incurred for shifting to a new action. All previously known results incur a factor proportional to the independence number of the feedback …
Study non-oblivious adversarial bandits with delayed feedback and propose algorithms with improved regret bounds.
Model calculates capital requirements for multi-line insurance companies.
We address the problem of aggregating an ensemble of predictors with known loss bounds in a semi-supervised binary classification setting, to minimize prediction loss incurred on the unlabeled data. We find the minimax optimal predictions for a very general class of loss functions including all convex and many non-conv…
We develop a novel approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework, ABCDP, that produces differentially private (DP) and approximate posterior samples. Our framework takes advantage of the Sparse Vector Technique (SVT), widely studied in the differential privacy literature. SVT incurs the privacy cost only when a cond…
The paper analyzes and proposes methods for privately sharing individual privacy losses using per-instance differential privacy.
We consider on-line density estimation with a parameterized density from the exponential family. The on-line algorithm receives one example at a time and maintains a parameter that is essentially an average of the past examples. After receiving an example the algorithm incurs a loss which is the negative log-likelihood…
Study shows AMM liquidity providers lose more than they earn, with varying profitability across pairs.
Through a short sale, a person borrows a share of stock from a lender, sells the borrowed share to a third person at the current price, and purchases an identical share in the market at a future date and at a future price to replace the borrowed share of stock. This only makes sense if the short seller anticipates a do…
FTPL policy achieves best-of-both-worlds regret in decoupled bandits with reduced computational cost.
New algorithm reduces online learning regret for bounded recall games.
We consider an active learning setting where the algorithm has access to a large pool of unlabeled data and a small pool of labeled data. In each iteration, the algorithm chooses few unlabeled data points and obtains their labels from an oracle. In this paper, we consider a probabilistic querying procedure to choose th…
New risk class penalizes loss deviations from mean on both sides.
Flexible framework for bounding high-loss predictions using quantiles.
We consider a setting where multiple players sequentially choose among a common set of actions (arms). Motivated by a cognitive radio networks application, we assume that players incur a loss upon colliding, and that communication between players is not possible. Existing approaches assume that the system is stationary…
Study uses SVM to predict weather-induced home insurance claims and losses.
We demonstrate that, in the classical non-stochastic regret minimization problem with decisions, gains and losses to be respectively maximized or minimized are fundamentally different. Indeed, by considering the additional sparsity assumption (at each stage, at most decisions incur a nonzero outcome), we derive…
Compared with shallow domain adaptation, recent progress in deep domain adaptation has shown that it can achieve higher predictive performance and stronger capacity to tackle structural data (e.g., image and sequential data). The underlying idea of deep domain adaptation is to bridge the gap between source and target d…
New framework controls statistical dispersion for high-stakes applications.
The study of heavy-tailed distributions in economic and financial systems has been widely addressed since financial time series has become a research subject.After the eighties, several "highly improbable" market drops were observed (e.g. the 1987 stock market drop known as "Black Monday" and on even more recent ones, …
New algorithm reduces prediction errors across various loss functions.
This paper considers a variant of the classical online learning problem with expert predictions. Our model's differences and challenges are due to lacking any direct feedback on the loss each expert incurs at each time step . We propose an approach that uses peer prediction and identify conditions where it succeeds.…
Investors suffer welfare loss despite having better information.
Differential privacy allows quantifying privacy loss resulting from accessing sensitive personal data. Repeated accesses to underlying data incur increasing loss. Releasing data as privacy-preserving synthetic data would avoid this limitation, but would leave open the problem of designing what kind of synthetic data. W…
A new approach to model rejection using density ratios.
New method uses Kernel Flows to improve neural network training without changing structure.
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
This paper addresses a challenging problem - how to reduce energy consumption without incurring performance drop when deploying deep neural networks (DNNs) at the inference stage. In order to alleviate the computation and storage burdens, we propose a novel dataflow-based joint quantization approach with the hypothesis…
Bayesian quadrature improves conformal prediction for better risk assessment.
A new privacy accountant for Gaussian differential privacy measures individual privacy losses.
Two new algorithms improve Q* approximation in batch RL with linear error propagation.
We investigate the efficiency of k-means in terms of both statistical and computational requirements. More precisely, we study a Nyström approach to kernel k-means. We analyze the statistical properties of the proposed method and show that it achieves the same accuracy of exact kernel k-means with only a fraction of co…
We consider the online version of the isotonic regression problem. Given a set of linearly ordered points (e.g., on the real line), the learner must predict labels sequentially at adversarially chosen positions and is evaluated by her total squared loss compared against the best isotonic (non-decreasing) function in hi…
We consider distributed online learning protocols that control the exchange of information between local learners in a round-based learning scenario. The learning performance of such a protocol is intuitively optimal if approximately the same loss is incurred as in a hypothetical serial setting. If a protocol accomplis…
Boosts change-point detection power with optimal sub-sampling.
Thompson Sampling tackles USS, a sequential selection problem without feedback.
G3M impermanent losses are a key issue in decentralized finance, affecting diversification benefits.
Using the framework of factor models, we establish the general expression of the coefficient of tail dependence between the market and a stock (i.e., the probability that the stock incurs a large loss, assuming that the market has also undergone a large loss) as a function of the parameters of the underlying factor mod…
New bounds using samplewise evaluated CMI for deep neural networks.
Study evaluates model selection methods for time series forecasting.
A new method for tighter privacy loss accounting in adaptive analyses.
LQF linearizes deep models for better interpretability.
Latent-state environments with long horizons, such as those faced by recommender systems, pose significant challenges for reinforcement learning (RL). In this work, we identify and analyze several key hurdles for RL in such environments, including belief state error and small action advantage. We develop a general prin…
We introduce autoregressive implicit quantile networks (AIQN), a fundamentally different approach to generative modeling than those commonly used, that implicitly captures the distribution using quantile regression. AIQN is able to achieve superior perceptual quality and improvements in evaluation metrics, without incu…
Foster and Hart proposed an operational measure of riskiness for discrete random variables. We show that their defining equation has no solution for many common continuous distributions including many uniform distributions, e.g. We show how to extend consistently the definition of riskiness to continuous random variabl…