Paper analyzes venture capital exit decisions under inconsistent preferences.
problem Time-inconsistent preferences in venture capital exit timing.
method Modeling four types of venture capitalists with varying levels of inconsistency.
result Time-inconsistent venture capitalists exit earlier than consistent ones.
Paper solves a complex portfolio selection problem with time-inconsistent preferences.
problem Time-inconsistent preferences in portfolio selection.
method Unified framework with minimal assumptions, proving existence and uniqueness of solution.
result Existence and uniqueness of square-integrable solution for the integral equation.
New method detects inconsistencies in AHP matrices using triadic preference reversals.
problem Challenges in assessing consistency in AHP pairwise comparison matrices.
method Triadic preference reversals to detect inconsistencies between pairs of elements.
result 97% accuracy in detecting inconsistencies, significantly surpassing traditional methods.
Researchers improve Gaussian processes to model inconsistent preferences.
problem Model inconsistent preferences and clusters of comparable items.
method Generalized Gaussian processes with spectral decomposition and universal RKHS.
result Competitive with state-of-the-art methods on simulated and real-world data.
The paper analyzes optimal dividend and capital injection strategies under time-inconsistent preferences.
problem Optimal dividend and capital injection strategies under time-inconsistent preferences.
method Diffusion risk model with general discount functions, weak equilibrium definition, HJB equation system.
result Explicit solutions and threshold types of optimal strategies derived under different discount functions.
Investigates time-inconsistent portfolio selection under MMV preferences.
problem Time-inconsistent optimal strategies for MMV preferences.
method Nash equilibrium controls for MMV and MV preferences, solving FBSDE and HJB equations.
result MMV optimal strategies lead to higher investment amounts than MV strategies, narrowing over time.
The paper solves portfolio selection for complex preferences in continuous time.
problem Dynamic portfolio selection for nonlinear preferences with time inconsistency.
method Stochastic maximum principle and verification theorems for equilibrium strategies.
result Equilibrium strategies derived in closed form for CRRA and CARA preferences.
We solve a continuous-time game-theoretic problem for Kihlstrom-Mirman preferences.
problem Dynamic inconsistency in preferences due to multiattribute utility theory.
method Formalized an equilibrium control theory for continuous-time Markov processes.
result Equilibrium strategy and value function as solution to extended HJB system.
Study on investment strategy for agents with periodic preferences and discounting.
problem Investment decisions by agents with periodic S-shaped preferences and present bias.
method Infinite-horizon, continuous-time portfolio selection problem with quasi-hyperbolic discounting.
result Time-consistent planning strategy can be formulated as an equilibrium to a static mean field game.
This paper considers a time-inconsistent stopping problem in which the inconsistency arises from non-constant time preference rates. We show that the smooth pasting principle, the main approach that has been used to construct explicit solutions for conventional time-consistent optimal stopping problems, may fail under …
Enhances robo-advisors with client investment preference inference.
problem Accurately inferring clients' investment preferences from past activities.
method Stochastic control framework with continuous-time model and discounting scheme.
result Proves sufficient conditions for client investment preference identifiability.
Introduces SMMV preferences to avoid inconsistency in portfolio selection.
problem Monotone mean-variance preferences fail to differentiate strictly dominant payoffs.
method Introduces strictly monotone mean-variance preferences and applies them to portfolio selection problems.
result SMMV preferences provide a more rational basis for assessing prospects and coincide with MV preferences under certain conditions.
Paper proves existence and uniqueness of solutions to nonlocal systems, generalizing stochastic game theory.
problem Time inconsistency in stochastic differential games.
method Proves existence and uniqueness of solutions to nonlocal fully-nonlinear parabolic systems.
result Generalizes stochastic game theory to include time-inconsistent preferences.
We demonstrate a limitation of discounted expected utility, a standard approach for representing the preference to risk when future cost is discounted. Specifically, we provide an example of the preference of a decision maker that appears to be rational but cannot be represented with any discounted expected utility. A …
Direct Density Ratio Optimization aligns LLMs with human preferences without assuming specific models.
problem Statistical inconsistency in aligning LLMs with human preferences.
method Direct Density Ratio Optimization (DDRO) estimates density ratio directly.
result DDRO is statistically consistent, converging to true human preferences as data grows.
This paper extends the classical consumption and portfolio rules model in continuous time (Merton 1969, 1971) to the framework of decision-makers with time-inconsistent preferences. The model is solved for different utility functions for both, naive and sophisticated agents, and the results are compared. In order to so…
In this paper, we consider equilibrium strategies under Volterra processes and time-inconsistent preferences embracing mean-variance portfolio selection (MVP). Using a functional Itô calculus approach, we overcome the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale difficulty in Volterra processes. The equilibrium strategy is the…
A new approach to MV portfolio optimization with jumps and RL.
problem Continuous-time Mean-Variance portfolio optimization with jumps.
method Jump-diffusion process, Reinforcement Learning, time-inconsistent control (TIC), Actor-Critic RL algorithm.
result The proposed RL model is profitable in real-world market data.
The paper explores how investors make decisions under disappointment aversion, finding that they prefer not to invest.
problem Continuous-time portfolio selection under generalized disappointment aversion.
method Sufficient and necessary condition for equilibrium strategies via fully nonlinear integral equation.
result Equilibrium strategy under disappointment aversion leads to less investment in the stock market compared to classical utility theory.
New method improves consistency in preference learning for neural networks.
problem Inconsistent surrogate losses in preference learning for neural networks.
method Formulated a margin-shifted ranking framework and introduced Structure-Aware H-consistency. result Proved superior consistency guarantees for capacity-bounded models using heavy-tailed surrogates.
The paper solves stochastic control problems with implicit objectives, finding equilibrium strategies.
problem Stochastic control problems with implicitly defined objectives leading to time-inconsistency.
method Closed-loop equilibrium solutions in a controlled diffusion framework, providing sufficient and necessary conditions.
result Explicit characterization of equilibrium portfolio strategies in terms of ordinary differential equations.
Rank aggregation systems collect ordinal preferences from individuals to produce a global ranking that represents the social preference. Rank-breaking is a common practice to reduce the computational complexity of learning the global ranking. The individual preferences are broken into pairwise comparisons and applied t…
Investor optimizes portfolio under dynamic risk preferences.
problem Optimizing investment under uncertain future risk attitudes.
method Developed a general equilibrium framework and solved for subgame-perfect equilibrium policies.
result Equilibrium policies include a novel hedging component to counteract anticipated risk aversion changes.
A new method reduces preference distortion in LLM alignment.
problem Vulnerability of traditional LLM alignment methods to human preference heterogeneity.
method Sign Estimator: A simple, provably consistent, and efficient estimator using binary classification loss.
result Substantially reduces preference distortion over a panel of simulated personas.
RLHF performs well despite violating social choice theory axioms.
problem RLHF's empirical success contradicts social choice theory axioms.
method Showed RLHF satisfies pairwise majority and Condorcet consistency under mild assumptions, and introduced new alignment criteria.
result RLHF satisfies pairwise majority and Condorcet consistency under mild assumptions, explaining its practical success.
Develops a model for gambling decisions under time inconsistency.
problem Time inconsistency in gambling decisions due to probability weighting in CPT.
method Formulates the problem as a mathematical program, derives optimal precommitted rule.
result Gambler may enter the casino even with limited play, behavior varies based on gains/losses.
Develops a statistical framework to measure uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences.
problem Uncertainty in model rankings based on human preferences due to mismatch between human and model preferences.
method Statistical framework using pairwise comparisons by humans and models to provide rank-sets for each model.
result Rank-sets constructed using only pairwise comparisons by strong models often do not cover the true ranking of human preferences.
We propose a topic modeling approach to the prediction of preferences in pairwise comparisons. We develop a new generative model for pairwise comparisons that accounts for multiple shared latent rankings that are prevalent in a population of users. This new model also captures inconsistent user behavior in a natural wa…
Proposes a deep learning approach for optimizing portfolios with stocks and options.
problem Optimizing portfolios with time-inconsistent objectives and trading constraints.
method Neural networks with adaptive activation functions for asset allocation and option strike prices.
result Adding options leads to more stable and consistent stock allocations.
We consider the predictive problem of supervised ranking, where the task is to rank sets of candidate items returned in response to queries. Although there exist statistical procedures that come with guarantees of consistency in this setting, these procedures require that individuals provide a complete ranking of all i…
This paper considers the Merton portfolio management problem. We are concerned with non-exponential discounting of time and this leads to time inconsistencies of the decision maker. Following Ekeland and Pirvu 2006, we introduce the notion of equilibrium policies and we characterize them by an integral equation. The ma…
Study optimal stopping for group with diverse discount rates using an attitude function.
problem Optimal stopping for a group with diverse discount rates under an aggregation preference.
method Develop iterative approach using consistent planning for time-consistent equilibria.
result Characterize all time-consistent mild equilibria as fixed points of an operator.
In this paper, we propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with uncertain income streams. In an incomplete market, there exist two traded risky assets (e.g. stock/commodity and weather derivative) and a non-traded underlying (e.g. temperature). The risk preferences are of expo…
This paper solves optimal consumption-investment problems with time-varying preferences.
problem Optimal consumption-investment problems under time-varying incomplete preferences.
method Develops a martingale-type solution in a topological vector space, using stochastic processes and scalarization methods.
result Optimal investment policies are set-valued, with selectors decomposed into four components.
Investment strategies for rank-dependent utility agents are derived in a continuous-time market.
problem Time inconsistency in rank-dependent utility models.
method Study of consistent planners seeking intra-personal equilibrium strategies.
result Explicit final wealth profile replicating equilibrium strategies, with scaling function derived.
This paper considers the optimal portfolio selection problem in a dynamic multi-period stochastic framework with regime switching. The risk preferences are of exponential (CARA) type with an absolute coefficient of risk aversion which changes with the regime. The market model is incomplete and there are two risky asset…
This paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market within a continuous time stochastic economy. The investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a stock and a riskless account. The market coefficients and discount factor switch according to a finite…
We propose a novel parameterized family of Mixed Membership Mallows Models (M4) to account for variability in pairwise comparisons generated by a heterogeneous population of noisy and inconsistent users. M4 models individual preferences as a user-specific probabilistic mixture of shared latent Mallows components. Our k…
Paper tackles stochastic control with mean and higher-order moments, finding Nash equilibria.
problem Time-inconsistent stochastic control problems with mean and higher-order moments.
method Developed closed-loop and open-loop Nash equilibrium controls using PDEs and maximum principles.
result Identical closed-loop and open-loop Nash equilibria controls, independent of state value and random path.
Paper solves time-inconsistent control problems with BSDEs.
problem Time-inconsistent stochastic control in continuous time.
method Probabilistic representation via BSDEs.
result Equilibrium value function resolved for inconsistent cases.
Dynamic pricing model considers ambiguity in endowment growth rate.
problem Dynamic asset pricing under ambiguous endowment growth rate.
method α-maxmin expected utility model for ambiguity, intra-personal equilibrium strategies, market equilibrium.
result Asset prices reflect ambiguity in endowment growth rate.
Bayesian models overestimate clusters, but practical summaries can correct this.
problem Bayesian mixture models overestimate the number of clusters.
method Simulations and gene expression data analysis using MCMC summarisation.
result Overestimation is limited in finite samples and can be corrected, but misspecification leads to significant overestimation.
New theory extends LQ control to non-exponential discount scenarios.
problem Time-inconsistent deterministic LQ control problems.
method Extended equivalent relationship to non-exponential discount functions, studied Riccati equation solvability.
result Existence and uniqueness of linear equilibrium for time-inconsistent LQ problem.
DAGnosis uses DAGs to identify and localize data inconsistencies.
problem Handling data inconsistencies in machine learning models at deployment time.
method Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to encode feature probability distribution and independencies.
result Localization of inconsistencies and insights into their causes.
We address the problem of learning a ranking by using adaptively chosen pairwise comparisons. Our goal is to recover the ranking accurately but to sample the comparisons sparingly. If all comparison outcomes are consistent with the ranking, the optimal solution is to use an efficient sorting algorithm, such as Quicksor…
We study consistency properties of machine learning methods based on minimizing convex surrogates. We extend the recent framework of Osokin et al. (2017) for the quantitative analysis of consistency properties to the case of inconsistent surrogates. Our key technical contribution consists in a new lower bound on the ca…
Paper tackles inconsistent CATE estimation across group assignments.
problem Inconsistent learning behavior for the same instance across different group assignments.
method CLAGA method to eliminate inconsistency.
result Significant performance improvements with CLAGA method.
Study solves HJB equations for time-inconsistent control problems.
problem Time-inconsistent deterministic linear quadratic control problems.
method Characterized solutions using Riccati equations with integral terms, proving uniqueness.
result Uniqueness of solutions to equilibrium HJB equations proved.