In-sample overfitting is a drawback of any backtest-based investment strategy. It is thus of paramount importance to have an understanding of why and how the in-sample overfitting occurs. In this article we propose a simple framework that allows one to model and quantify in-sample PnL overfitting. This allows us to com…
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48 results for “in-sample overfitting”
The paper predicts and explains the decay of stock anomaly performance over time.
problem Predicting and explaining the drop in risk-adjusted performance of stock anomalies.
method The authors propose ex-ante characteristics based on hypotheses of out-of-sample decay and in-sample overfitting.
result The year of publication explains 30% of the variance in Sharpe decay across factors.
Study the impact of overfitting on linear predictive models' performance.
problem Overfitting reduces the out-of-sample performance of linear predictive trading strategies.
method Computed in- and out-of-sample means and variances of PnLs to derive replication ratios.
result Replication ratio diminishes for complex strategies with many assets.
Modern ML methods show unexpected behaviors that contradict classical statistics.
problem Modern machine learning methods exhibit behaviors at odds with classical statistical intuitions.
method Comparison between fixed and random design settings in ML and statistics.
result Moving from fixed to random designs reveals new insights into bias-variance tradeoffs and overfitting.
To Bag is to Prunestat.ML
Random Forests automatically prune a latent 'true' tree, explaining their overfitting without tuning.
problem Difficulty in building bad Random Forests and overfitting without apparent consequences.
method Bootstrap aggregation and model perturbation in Random Forests.
result Randomized ensembles implicitly perform optimal early stopping out-of-sample, explaining overfitting.
The paper introduces eigen-portfolios using PCA to improve portfolio construction in finance.
problem Overfitting and poor generalization in selecting a single eigen-portfolio.
method Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to derive eigen-portfolios from asset return correlation matrices.
result An ensemble strategy combining multiple top-performing eigen-portfolios significantly improves out-of-sample performance.
Framework mitigates overfitting in quantitative trading strategies.
problem Overfitting during strategy transition from backtest to live trading.
method Three-stage protocol: IS, WFA, OOS; majority pass, purge gaps, cliff veto, etc.
result Demonstrates how to detect overfitting through performance decay and drawdown behavior.
A co-evolutionary approach for Heston model calibration reduces overfitting with diverse datasets.
problem Overfitting and lack of generalization in Heston model calibration.
method Coupling a genetic algorithm with an evolving neural inverse map, using both GA-history sampling and Latin hypercube sampling.
result Diverse datasets improve out-of-sample stability and calibration accuracy.
AI bias arises from human-defined goals, not algorithmic flaws.
problem AI bias due to human-defined goals in LLMs.
method Purpose-conditioned cognition and revealing downstream use of LLM outputs.
result AI bias can be reduced by purpose-aware prompting but not fully by regularization.
Designs a robust data-driven decision-making model to handle multiple overfitting sources.
problem Overfitting in data-driven models due to statistical error, data noise, and data misspecification.
method Holistic distributionally robust optimization formulation combining Kullback-Leibler and Lévy-Prokhorov approaches.
result Guaranteed holistic protection against statistical error, data noise, and data misspecification.
The paper identifies overfitting as the main bottleneck in efficient deep reinforcement learning.
problem Improving sample efficiency in deep reinforcement learning.
method Empirical analysis on DMC tasks to identify overfitting as the main issue and developing a hill-climbing method targeting validation TD error.
result Overfitting is the primary bottleneck in sample-efficient deep RL, and regularization techniques can control this.
EarlyStopping package helps prevent overfitting in iterative learning procedures.
problem Preventing overfitting in iterative learning procedures.
method Early stopping implemented in a Python package.
result Demonstrates how to use the EarlyStopping package to explore implicit regularization.
Model selection is difficult to analyse yet theoretically and empirically important, especially for high-dimensional data analysis. Recently the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) has been applied in the statistical and econometric literature. Consis- tency of Lasso has been established under vario…
Optimal portfolios are formed by combining momentum, size, and volatility characteristics, enhancing utility for all investors.
problem Estimation error in forming optimal portfolios from characteristics.
method Maximizing an in-sample loss function that is more concave than the utility function, linking weights to characteristics.
result Optimal portfolios with significantly higher certainty equivalents than benchmarks for all investors.
A new method solves complex hydroelectricity planning problems.
problem Solving multistage stochastic linear programming for hydrothermal dispatch planning.
method Regularized Linear Decision Rules (AdaLASSO) to reduce overfitting and improve out-of-sample performance.
result Significant reductions in non-zero coefficients and improved spot-price profiles.
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling algorithms are an extremely widely-used technique to estimate expectations of functions f(x), especially in high dimensions. Control variates are a very powerful technique to reduce the error of such estimates, but in their conventional form rely on having an accurate approximation of f, a pri…
We study the profitability of optimal mean reversion trading strategies in the US equity market. Different from regular pair trading practice, we apply maximum likelihood method to construct the optimal static pairs trading portfolio that best fits the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and rigorously estimate the parameters.…
Paper presents a new way to analyze machine learning generalization without probabilistic assumptions.
problem Traditional generalization analysis assumes i.i.d. data, which is often unverifiable.
method Uses sensitivity analysis of optimization problems to derive deterministic generalization bounds.
result Obtains generalization bounds that relate in-sample and out-of-sample evaluations through an error term quantifying data similarity.
New method for nonlinear Granger causality improves predictive relationships.
problem Challenges in applying Granger causality to nonlinear data.
method Permutation of covariate set, artificial neural networks, consistent variance estimation.
result Permutation method outperforms other techniques in predicting nonlinear relationships.
Two-layer CNNs can overfit without harm under certain conditions.
problem Understanding when and how overfitting occurs in neural networks.
method Theoretical analysis of a two-layer CNN trained by gradient descent.
result A sharp phase transition between benign and harmful overfitting based on signal-to-noise ratio.
Attention models can overfit without harming test performance.
problem Understanding benign overfitting in single-head attention models.
method Analyzing conditions for benign overfitting in a single-head softmax attention model.
result A single-head attention model can overfit without harming test performance under certain conditions.
The paper tackles backtest overfitting in cryptocurrency trading using deep reinforcement learning.
problem Backtest overfitting in deep reinforcement learning for cryptocurrency trading.
method Formulated hypothesis test for overfitting detection, trained agents, estimated overfitting probability, and rejected overfitted agents.
result Less overfitted deep reinforcement learning agents outperformed more overfitted agents and market benchmarks.
The NIG model outperforms others in pricing S&P 500 index options.
problem Analyzing and pricing S&P 500 index options with Lévy jumps.
method Parameter estimation using SSE method for various models (BS, SV, SVJ, non-IID, Lévy (GH, NIG, CGMY)).
result NIG model outperforms other models in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods.
ResNet models overfit benignly on Cifar10 but not on ImageNet due to label noise.
problem Understanding why benign overfitting fails in real-world classification tasks with label noise.
method Theoretical analysis of benign overfitting under a mild overparameterization setup.
result Benign overfitting can fail in the presence of label noise, unlike in heavy overparameterization settings.
We prove overfitting in minimal and random NNs, tempering the effect.
problem Overfitting in minimal and random neural networks.
method Analyzing binary weight fitting to noisy data, proving overfitting is tempered.
result The overfitting of minimal and random neural networks is tempered.
Risk Phase Transitions in Spiked Regression: Alignment Driven Benign and Catastrophic Overfittingstat.ML
The paper examines how spike strengths and alignments affect overfitting in linear regression models.
problem The impact of spike strengths and alignments on overfitting in linear regression models.
method Characterization of generalization error through exact expressions and analysis of spike strengths, aspect ratio, and target alignment.
result Increasing spike strength can lead to catastrophic overfitting before benign overfitting, especially in well-specified aligned problems.
New insights into why neural networks can overfit without interpolating data.
problem Understanding why neural networks can overfit without interpolating data in fixed dimensions.
method Analyzing the smoothness of estimators and their derivatives.
result Benign overfitting is possible with estimators that have large enough derivatives, not just in high dimensions but also in fixed dimensions.
Framework for understanding overfitting and underfitting using information theory.
problem Understanding and preventing overfitting and underfitting in machine learning.
method Information-theoretic framework measuring algorithm capacity and dataset information transfer.
result Upper-bounding algorithm capacity and establishing its relationship to machine learning quantities.
Physics analogies explain machine learning overfitting control.
problem Understanding and controlling overfitting in machine learning.
method Analogies from physics and biology applied to algorithmic stability and GAN models.
result Physics formulas provide insights into reducing overfitting in machine learning.
A primary concern of excessive reuse of test datasets in machine learning is that it can lead to overfitting. Multiclass classification was recently shown to be more resistant to overfitting than binary classification. In an open problem of COLT 2019, Feldman, Frostig, and Hardt ask to characterize the dependence of th…
New study finds many neural networks are not benignly overfitting.
problem Understanding the behavior of overfitting in neural networks.
method Exploring kernel ridge regression and deep neural networks to identify overfitting behaviors.
result Many interpolating methods, including neural networks, exhibit tempered overfitting rather than benign or catastrophic.
This paper tackles few-shot AF learning for BO, improving performance across various functions.
problem Designing a single AF that performs well across different types of black-box functions.
method Integrates Q-functions and DQN, using Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning and Kullback-Leibler regularization.
result FSAF achieves comparable or better performance than state-of-the-art benchmarks.
Two-layer ReLU networks can overfit without harm, study finds.
problem Understanding when and how two-layer ReLU networks can overfit without harming generalization.
method Established algorithm-dependent risk bounds for two-layer ReLU convolutional neural networks with label-flipping noise.
result Gradient descent-trained ReLU networks can achieve near-zero training loss and Bayes optimal test risk.
New findings on how neural networks generalize with varying dimensions.
problem Understanding how neural networks generalize with different dimensions and noise levels.
method Study of 2-layer ReLU NNs in a classification setting, proving transitions in overfitting types.
result The type of overfitting transitions from tempered to benign as input dimension increases.
Study on benign overfitting in leaky ReLUs with moderate input dimensions.
problem Understanding when overfitting is beneficial in neural networks.
method Two-layer leaky ReLU networks trained with hinge loss, considering signal-to-noise ratio.
result Characterization of conditions for benign overfitting based on signal-to-noise ratio.
We compare and contrast two approaches to validating a trained classifier while using all in-sample data for training. One is simultaneous validation over an organized set of hypotheses (SVOOSH), the well-known method that began with VC theory. The other is withhold and gap (WAG). WAG withholds a validation set, trains…
The repeated community-wide reuse of test sets in popular benchmark problems raises doubts about the credibility of reported test-error rates. Verifying whether a learned model is overfitted to a test set is challenging as independent test sets drawn from the same data distribution are usually unavailable, while other …
New method targets sparsity to prevent overfitting in deep nets.
problem Overfitting in deep neural networks with small datasets.
method Targeted sparsity regularization to visualize and counteract overfitting.
result Significant increase in image classification performance without overfitting.
Adversarial training can lead to overfitting without compromising robustness.
problem Explaining benign overfitting in adversarially robust linear classification.
method Theoretical analysis and numerical experiments on adversarial training.
result Adversarially trained linear classifiers can achieve near-optimal risks despite overfitting noisy data.
Paper finds conditions for benign overfitting in neural networks.
problem Benign overfitting in leaky ReLU two-layer neural networks.
method Established directional convergence and classification error bounds.
result Benign overfitting occurs with high probability on mixture data.
Empirical study shows GANs overfit and drop modes when training is deterministic.
problem Understanding overfitting and mode drop in GAN training.
method Empirical analysis of GAN training with and without stochasticity.
result GANs overfit and drop modes when training is deterministic.
New insights into when benign overfitting occurs in linear and classification tasks.
problem Understanding when benign overfitting happens in linear and classification models.
method Analysis of a generic data model and comparison of predictors (minimum-norm interpolating and max-margin).
result The minimum-norm interpolating predictor is biased towards an inconsistent solution, preventing benign overfitting in linear regression.
Balance, Imbalance, and Rebalance: Understanding Robust Overfitting from a Minimax Game Perspectivecs.LG
Paper explains adversarial training's robust overfitting through a minimax game perspective.
problem Adversarial training suffers from robust overfitting after learning rate decay.
method Viewing adversarial training as a dynamic minimax game, analyzing how LR decay breaks balance and leads to overfitting.
result ReBalanced Adversarial Training (ReBAT) alleviates robust overfitting without sacrificing robustness.
Testing for Overfittingstat.ML
Tests for overfitting in machine learning models.
problem Overfitting in high complexity models.
method Hypothesis test using concentration bounds.
result Valid test for identifying overfitting.
Study the cost of overfitting in noisy KRR models.
problem Cost of overfitting in noisy kernel ridge regression.
method An agnostic view of overfitting cost as a function of sample size for any target function, using Gaussian universality ansatz and task eigenstructure.
result Characterization of benign, tempered, and catastrophic overfitting.
We propose a semantic segmentation model that exploits rotation and reflection symmetries. We demonstrate significant gains in sample efficiency due to increased weight sharing, as well as improvements in robustness to symmetry transformations. The group equivariant CNN framework is extended for segmentation by introdu…
New bounds for KRR condition number reveal overfitting phenomena.
problem Characterizing overfitting in KRR with varying kernel spectral decay.
method Derived new bounds for kernel matrices, enhanced test error bounds, and identified feature independence role.
result Identified tempered and catastrophic overfitting phenomena.
A new exploration method for bandit and reinforcement learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in exploration.
method Residual Overfit Method of Exploration (ROME).
result ROME drives exploration towards actions with overfitting.