A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper shows federated learning can train models on private data.
Study improves mortality prediction in hospital patients using comprehensive feature engineering.
Bayesian optimization improves classifier selection for acute infection and mortality.
In healthcare, patient risk stratification models are often learned using time-series data extracted from electronic health records. When extracting data for a clinical prediction task, several formulations exist, depending on how one chooses the time of prediction and the prediction horizon. In this paper, we show how…
This study shows unstructured clinical notes can improve mortality prediction.
A new model predicts in-hospital mortality from EHR data, handling missing values with uncertainty.
Study develops a dynamic risk model for COVID-19 mortality using UK Biobank data.
We present a generative approach to classify scarcely observed longitudinal patient trajectories. The available time series are represented as tensors and factorized using generative deep recurrent neural networks. The learned factors represent the patient data in a compact way and can then be used in a downstream clas…
Traditional methods for assessing illness severity and predicting in-hospital mortality among critically ill patients require time-consuming, error-prone calculations using static variable thresholds. These methods do not capitalize on the emerging availability of streaming electronic health record data or capture time…
Paper proposes robust method to detect risk heterogeneity across ethnic groups.
Deep neural networks have shown promising results for various clinical prediction tasks such as diagnosis, mortality prediction, predicting duration of stay in hospital, etc. However, training deep networks -- such as those based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) -- requires large labeled data, high computational res…
Febrile neutropenia (FN) has been associated with high mortality, especially among adults with cancer. Understanding the patient and provider level heterogeneity in FN hospital admissions has potential to inform personalized interventions focused on increasing survival of individuals with FN. We leverage machine learni…
Study evaluates approaches to improve worst-case model performance across patient subpopulations.
AdaptHetero uses MLI to tailor EHR models for subgroup-specific predictions.
Extracting actionable insight from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) poses several challenges for traditional machine learning approaches. Patients are often missing data relative to each other; the data comes in a variety of modalities, such as multivariate time series, free text, and categorical demographic informatio…
Machine learning approaches have been effective in predicting adverse outcomes in different clinical settings. These models are often developed and evaluated on datasets with heterogeneous patient populations. However, good predictive performance on the aggregate population does not imply good performance for specific …
Monitoring patients in ICU is a challenging and high-cost task. Hence, predicting the condition of patients during their ICU stay can help provide better acute care and plan the hospital's resources. There has been continuous progress in machine learning research for ICU management, and most of this work has focused on…
Though black-box predictors are state-of-the-art for many complex tasks, they often fail to properly quantify predictive uncertainty and may provide inappropriate predictions for unfamiliar data. Instead, we can learn more reliable models by letting them either output a prediction set or abstain when the uncertainty is…
Many in-hospital mortality risk prediction scores dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. However, hard thresholding in these additive stepwise scores of the form "add x points if variable v is above/below threshold t" may lead to critical failures. In this paper, we seek to develop risk pre…
Study compares federated and centralized learning for patient data privacy.
Recently, researchers have started applying convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with one-dimensional convolutions to clinical tasks involving time-series data. This is due, in part, to their computational efficiency, relative to recurrent neural networks and their ability to efficiently exploit certain temporal invari…
Efficiently estimates variable importance in prediction tasks using Shapley values.
Unified framework for imputation and prediction in healthcare time series.
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is t…
Cointegration helps insurers understand long-range mortality patterns.
New model incorporates long-range dependence in mortality rates for better valuation and risk management.
Paper assesses how pandemic data impacts mortality models.
New approach models individual vitality for better mortality predictions.
In recent years, a market for mortality derivatives began developing as a way to handle systematic mortality risk, which is inherent in life insurance and annuity contracts. Systematic mortality risk is due to the uncertain development of future mortality intensities, or {\it hazard rates}. In this paper, we develop a …
Various stochastic models have been proposed to estimate mortality rates. In this paper we illustrate how machine learning techniques allow us to analyze the quality of such mortality models. In addition, we present how these techniques can be used for differentiating the different causes of death in mortality modeling…
Study historical cholera epidemics and simulate long-term mortality impacts.
Machine Learning (ML) applications on healthcare can have a great impact on people's lives helping deliver better and timely treatment to those in need. At the same time, medical data is usually big and sparse requiring important computational resources. Although it might not be a problem for wide-adoption of ML tools …
Satellite images predict U.S. county mortality rates.
Study identifies clusters of EU countries with similar young mortality patterns.
Develops a bi-variate stochastic framework to model mortality and interest rates with long-range dependence.
Study on excess mortality in Germany during 2020-21.
Study finds actuarial unfairness in China's pension system, proposing income-dependent annuitization rules.
The article presents a new non-parametric approach for forecasting mortality and fertility using Gaussian process regression.
Investigates RI strategies for life insurers with LRD mortality rates.
A risk of small defined-benefit pension schemes is that there are too few members to eliminate idiosyncratic mortality risk, that is there are too few members to effectively pool mortality risk. This means that when there are few members in the scheme, there is an increased risk of the liability value deviating signifi…
Proposes a new model for mortality forecasting considering age groups and cohort effects.
This paper explores and develops alternative statistical representations and estimation approaches for dynamic mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a general state-space modelling methodology, which allows modelling, estimation and…
Study proposes a new model for joint survival annuity valuation.
In this paper, we discuss the impact of some mortality data anomalies on an internal model capturing longevity risk in the Solvency 2 framework. In particular, we are concerned with abnormal cohort effects such as those for generations 1919 and 1920, for which the period tables provided by the Human Mortality Database …
Develops a GP framework for age and year-specific mortality surfaces.
This article applies a long short-term memory recurrent neural network to mortality rate forecasting. The model can be trained jointly on the mortality rate history of different countries, ages, and sexes. The RNN-based method seems to outperform the popular Lee-Carter model.
Study uses zero-shot models to forecast mortality rates globally.
Optimal annuitization strategy depends on age, labor income, and mortality risk.