A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New framework values football players based on in-game interactions.
Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation opti…
In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become important tools to enhance fan experience, to evaluate in-game decision-making,…
Action guidance helps agents learn true objectives in games with sparse rewards.
New learning dynamics achieve fast convergence in games without needing to know utility scales.
We consider the game-theoretic scenario of testing the performance of Forecaster by Sceptic who gambles against the forecasts. Sceptic's current capital is interpreted as the amount of evidence he has found against Forecaster. Reporting the maximum of Sceptic's capital so far exaggerates the evidence. We characterize t…
The game-theoretic risk management framework put forth in the precursor work "Towards a Theory of Games with Payoffs that are Probability-Distributions" (arXiv:1506.07368 [q-fin.EC]) is herein extended by algorithmic details on how to compute equilibria in games where the payoffs are probability distributions. Our appr…
Transforms game optimization dynamics into frequency domain for precise hyperparameter analysis.
Study uses time series analysis to predict player churn and conversion in games.
New algorithm improves game learning with randomised optimism.
A new method assesses algorithmic fairness using game theory.
In this paper we study the nonzero-sum Dynkin game in continuous time which is a two player non-cooperative game on stopping times. We show that it has a Nash equilibrium point for general stochastic processes. As an application, we consider the problem of pricing American game contingent claims by the utility maximiza…
Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated a great potential for automatically solving decision-making problems in complex uncertain environments. RL proposes a computational approach that allows learning through interaction in an environment with stochastic behavior, where agents take actions to maximize some cumula…
New sampling method estimates Shapley values more accurately.
Reinforcement learning has exceeded human-level performance in game playing AI with deep learning methods according to the experiments from DeepMind on Go and Atari games. Deep learning solves high dimension input problems which stop the development of reinforcement for many years. This study uses both two techniques t…
CausalGame benchmarks LLM agents' causal thinking in games.
Paper analyzes convergence rates for multi-agent learning in games.
Algorithms for equilibrium computation generally make no attempt to ensure that the computed strategies are understandable by humans. For instance the strategies for the strongest poker agents are represented as massive binary files. In many situations, we would like to compute strategies that can actually be implement…
The negative externalities from an individual bank failure to the whole system can be huge. One of the key purposes of bank regulation is to internalize the social costs of potential bank failures via capital charges. This study proposes a method to evaluate and allocate the systemic risk to different countries/regions…
The Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) formalism can be adapted to encompass stochastic processes with memory. In this article we will show how the random combination of two different unbiased CTRWs can give raise to a process with clear drift, if one of them is a CTRW with memory. If one identifies the other one as no…
Data-driven approaches which aim to identify and predict player engagement are becoming increasingly popular in games industry contexts. This is due to the growing practice of tracking and storing large volumes of in-game telemetries coupled with a desire to tailor the gaming experience to the end-user's needs. These a…
Stochastic stability is a popular solution concept for stochastic learning dynamics in games. However, a critical limitation of this solution concept is its inability to distinguish between different learning rules that lead to the same steady-state behavior. We address this limitation for the first time and develop a …
We study the relationship between the notions of differentially private learning and online learning in games. Several recent works have shown that differentially private learning implies online learning, but an open problem of Neel, Roth, and Wu \cite{NeelAaronRoth2018} asks whether this implication is {\it efficient}…
Mixability of a loss is known to characterise when constant regret bounds are achievable in games of prediction with expert advice through the use of Vovk's aggregating algorithm. We provide a new interpretation of mixability via convex analysis that highlights the role of the Kullback-Leibler divergence in its definit…
AI agent plays CSGO deathmatch with human-like style.
New learning dynamics adapt to corrupted games, improving performance in real-world scenarios.
Deep learning improves portfolio management by optimizing asset weights.
It is now well known that decentralised optimisation can be formulated as a potential game, and game-theoretical learning algorithms can be used to find an optimum. One of the most common learning techniques in game theory is fictitious play. However fictitious play is founded on an implicit assumption that opponents' …
We consider Blackwell approachability, a very powerful and geometric tool in game theory, used for example to design strategies of the uninformed player in repeated games with incomplete information. We extend this theory to "generalized quitting games" , a class of repeated stochastic games in which each player may ha…
Framework uses probabilistic programming for physics simulation in games.
In this paper, we implement three state-of-art continuous reinforcement learning algorithms, Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Policy Gradient (PG)in portfolio management. All of them are widely-used in game playing and robot control. What's more, PPO has appealing theore…
We explore value-based solutions for multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) tasks in the centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) regime popularized recently. However, VDN and QMIX are representative examples that use the idea of factorization of the joint action-value function into individual ones f…
We investigate how reinforcement learning can be used to train level-designing agents. This represents a new approach to procedural content generation in games, where level design is framed as a game, and the content generator itself is learned. By seeing the design problem as a sequential task, we can use reinforcemen…
New findings show strategic interactions can undermine model expressiveness in machine learning.
Algorithm learns from changing zero-sum games with no regret.
This paper improves self-play learning in games by manipulating experience distributions.
R2-B2 optimizes game interactions with recursive reasoning.
CollaQ improves multi-agent performance in StarCraft by 40% with fewer samples.
Study explores optimal strategies in games with multiple players and mean-field interactions.
As video games attract more and more players, the major challenge for game studios is to retain them. We present a deep behavioral analysis of churn (game abandonment) and what we called "purchase churn" (the transition from paying to non-paying user). A series of churning behavior profiles are identified, which allows…
Most existing deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks consider either discrete action space or continuous action space solely. Motivated by applications in computer games, we consider the scenario with discrete-continuous hybrid action space. To handle hybrid action space, previous works either approximate the hyb…
Nowadays, video game developers record every virtual action performed by their players. As each player can remain in the game for years, this results in an exceptionally rich dataset that can be used to understand and predict player behavior. In particular, this information may serve to identify the most valuable playe…
Deep reinforcement learning has shown its success in game playing. However, 2.5D fighting games would be a challenging task to handle due to ambiguity in visual appearances like height or depth of the characters. Moreover, actions in such games typically involve particular sequential action orders, which also makes the…
The notion of \emph{policy regret} in online learning is a well defined? performance measure for the common scenario of adaptive adversaries, which more traditional quantities such as external regret do not take into account. We revisit the notion of policy regret and first show that there are online learning settings …
The in-game economies of massively multi-player online games (MMOGs) are complex systems that have to be carefully designed and managed. This paper presents the results of an analysis of auction house data from the MMOG Glitch, across a 14 month time period, the entire lifetime of the game. The data comprise almost 3 m…
Researchers create a framework to value player actions in CSGO.
Motivated by the scarcity of accurate payoff feedback in practical applications of game theory, we examine a class of learning dynamics where players adjust their choices based on past payoff observations that are subject to noise and random disturbances. First, in the single-player case (corresponding to an agent tryi…
Random forests classify Pokemon names based on evolutionary status.