A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method for estimating and testing impulse responses in high-dimensional VAR systems.
Estimates impulse response functions using machine learning in time series data.
Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR), assume linearity and are thus unable to capture the …
New method decomposes local projections to reveal historical drivers of estimates.
New mathematical foundations for stable RKHSs improve system identification.
Bayesian regularization tackles collinearity in large-scale systems with correlated inputs.
We consider the problem of impulse response estimation of stable linear single-input single-output systems. It is a well-studied problem where flexible non-parametric models recently offered a leap in performance compared to the classical finite-dimensional model structures. Inspired by this development and the success…
Recent developments in linear system identification have proposed the use of non-parameteric methods, relying on regularization strategies, to handle the so-called bias/variance trade-off. This paper introduces an impulse response estimator which relies on an -type regularization including a rank-penalty derive…
Regularized least-squares approaches have been successfully applied to linear system identification. Recent approaches use quadratic penalty terms on the unknown impulse response defined by stable spline kernels, which control model space complexity by leveraging regularity and bounded-input bounded-output stability. T…
The classical approach to linear system identification is given by parametric Prediction Error Methods (PEM). In this context, model complexity is often unknown so that a model order selection step is needed to suitably trade-off bias and variance. Recently, a different approach to linear system identification has been…
Convolutional neural networks (CNN) are generally designed with a heuristic initialization of network architecture and trained for a certain task. This often leads to overparametrization after learning and induces redundancy in the information flow paths within the network. This robustness and reliability is at the inc…
Bayesian approach tackles collinearity in large-scale linear system identification.
Paper presents efficient algorithms for convolutional neural networks using Winograd minimal filtering.
In this paper we propose a new identification scheme for Hammerstein systems, which are dynamic systems consisting of a static nonlinearity and a linear time-invariant dynamic system in cascade. We assume that the nonlinear function can be described as a linear combination of basis functions. We reconstruct the …
This paper compares classical parametric methods with recently developed Bayesian methods for system identification. A Full Bayes solution is considered together with one of the standard approximations based on the Empirical Bayes paradigm. Results regarding point estimators for the impulse response as well as for conf…
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
This paper proposes an Adaptive Stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy for stable linear time-invariant systems in the presence of bounded disturbances. We consider multi-input, multi-output systems that can be expressed by a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model. The parameters of the FIR model corresponding…
A new nonparametric approach for system identification has been recently proposed where the impulse response is seen as the realization of a zero--mean Gaussian process whose covariance, the so--called stable spline kernel, guarantees that the impulse response is almost surely stable. Maximum entropy properties of the …
This paper simplifies complex game dynamics by using a recursive representation.
Unified Bayesian framework for LTV system identification using neural networks and Gaussian Processes.
A new approach for blind channel equalization and decoding, variational inference, and variational autoencoders (VAEs) in particular, is introduced. We first consider the reconstruction of uncoded data symbols transmitted over a noisy linear intersymbol interference (ISI) channel, with an unknown impulse response, with…
Estimation of response functions is an important task in dynamic medical imaging. This task arises for example in dynamic renal scintigraphy, where impulse response or retention functions are estimated, or in functional magnetic resonance imaging where hemodynamic response functions are required. These functions can no…
Deep learning classifies animal behavior from wearable accelerometers.
Additive asynchronous and cyclostationary impulsive noise limits communication performance in OFDM powerline communication (PLC) systems. Conventional OFDM receivers assume additive white Gaussian noise and hence experience degradation in communication performance in impulsive noise. Alternate designs assume a parametr…
Study proves interaction of three impulsive gravitational waves, showing local solution and Lipschitz continuity.
A new Bayesian approach to linear system identification has been proposed in a series of recent papers. The main idea is to frame linear system identification as predictor estimation in an infinite dimensional space, with the aid of regularization/Bayesian techniques. This approach guarantees the identification of stab…
Long-range climate forecasts use integrated assessment models to link the global economy to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper evaluates an alternative economic framework outlined in part 1 of this study (Garrett, 2014) that approaches the global economy using purely physical principles rather than explicitly resolve…
Proposes a deep learning framework for estimating counterfactual outcomes.
The superior temporal gyrus (STG) region of cortex critically contributes to speech recognition. In this work, we show that a proposed WaveNet, with limited available data, is able to reconstruct speech stimuli from STG intracranial recordings. We further investigate the impulse response of the fitted model for each re…
The paper tackles system identification via Hankel nuclear norm regularization, improving estimation rates and singular value gaps.
A nonlinear channel estimator using complex Least Square Support Vector Machines (LS-SVM) is proposed for pilot-aided OFDM system and applied to Long Term Evolution (LTE) downlink under high mobility conditions. The estimation algorithm makes use of the reference signals to estimate the total frequency response of the …
Develops a numerical algorithm for stochastic impulse control using regression surrogates.
Impulsive waves contradict a 1962 conjecture about pp-waves.
In this paper we consider long-run risk sensitive average cost impulse control applied to a continuous-time Feller-Markov process. Using the probabilistic approach, we show how to get a solution to a suitable continuous-time Bellman equation and link it with the impulse control problem. The optimal strategy for the und…
Study strategic competition in commodity markets using impulse-switching controls.
We propose a novel receiver for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) transmissions in impulsive noise environments. Impulsive noise arises in many modern wireless and wireline communication systems, such as Wi-Fi and powerline communications, due to uncoordinated interference that is much stronger than the…
Optimal trading strategy between CEXs and DEXs with priority fees and stochastic delays.
This paper solves a Bayes sequential impulse control problem for a diffusion, whose drift has an unobservable parameter with a change point. The partially-observed problem is reformulated into one with full observations, via a change of probability measure which removes the drift. The optimal impulse controls can be ex…
In this paper we introduce a novel method for linear system identification with quantized output data. We model the impulse response as a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential stability. This s…
The dichotomous coordinate descent (DCD) algorithm has been successfully used for significant reduction in the complexity of recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms. In this work, we generalize the application of the DCD algorithm to RLS adaptive filtering in impulsive noise scenarios and derive a unified update formu…
The Poincaré map is widely used to study the qualitative behavior of dynamical systems. For instance, it can be used to describe the existence of periodic solutions. The Poincaré map for dynamical systems with impulse effects was introduced in the last decade and mainly employed to study the existence of limit cycles (…
Bayesian framework quantifies uncertainty in portfolio temperature alignment.
Abstract: A new approach to technical indicators without lag.
This paper investigates the problem of sparse signal recovery in the presence of additive impulsive noise. The heavytailed impulsive noise is well modelled with stable distributions. Since there is no explicit formulation for the probability density function of distribution, alternative approximations like Genera…
Study examines how BRICS nations' economies respond to COVID-19.
In this paper, we propose an outlier-robust regularized kernel-based method for linear system identification. The unknown impulse response is modeled as a zero-mean Gaussian process whose covariance (kernel) is given by the recently proposed stable spline kernel, which encodes information on regularity and exponential …
Gaussian processes are used in machine learning to learn input-output mappings from observed data. Gaussian process regression is based on imposing a Gaussian process prior on the unknown regressor function and statistically conditioning it on the observed data. In system identification, Gaussian processes are used to …
Study optimal market making in Hawkes LOB market using impulse control and RL.