A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener process and a compensated Poisson random measure. A major innovation of the paper is t…
We study two time-scale linear stochastic approximation algorithms, which can be used to model well-known reinforcement learning algorithms such as GTD, GTD2, and TDC. We present finite-time performance bounds for the case where the learning rate is fixed. The key idea in obtaining these bounds is to use a Lyapunov fun…
The paper uses machine learning and Lie groups to improve rating transitions and XVA calculations.
problem Improving rating transitions and XVA calculations using machine learning and Lie groups.
method Modeling rating transitions as SDEs on Lie groups, calibrating to historical and market data, applying Girsanov theorem, and using Deep Learning.
result Improves rating transitions and XVA calculations, making the model more robust.
An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time V…
Efficient global optimization is the problem of minimizing an unknown function f, using as few evaluations f(x) as possible. It can be considered as a continuum-armed bandit problem, with noiseless data and simple regret. Expected improvement is perhaps the most popular method for solving this problem; the algorithm pe…
Conditional expectiles are becoming an increasingly important tool in finance as well as in other areas of applications. We analyse a support vector machine type approach for estimating conditional expectiles and establish learning rates that are minimax optimal modulo a logarithmic factor if Gaussian RBF kernels are u…
We propose the stochastic average gradient (SAG) method for optimizing the sum of a finite number of smooth convex functions. Like stochastic gradient (SG) methods, the SAG method's iteration cost is independent of the number of terms in the sum. However, by incorporating a memory of previous gradient values the SAG me…
In this paper we improve the spectral convergence rates for graph-based approximations of Laplace-Beltrami operators constructed from random data. We utilize regularity of the continuum eigenfunctions and strong pointwise consistency results to prove that spectral convergence rates are the same as the pointwise consist…
We present an improved analysis of the Euler-Maruyama discretization of the Langevin diffusion. Our analysis does not require global contractivity, and yields polynomial dependence on the time horizon. Compared to existing approaches, we make an additional smoothness assumption, and improve the existing rate from $O(η)…
The paper analyzes and improves the learning rates of distributed kernel ridge regression.
problem Generalization performance and learning rates of distributed kernel ridge regression.
method The paper derives optimal learning rates for DKRR in expectation and probability, proposes a communication strategy to improve learning performance, and evaluates these through theory and experiments.
result The communication strategy significantly improves the learning performance of DKRR, as demonstrated by both theoretical assessments and numerical experiments.
In semi-supervised classification, one is given access both to labeled and unlabeled data. As unlabeled data is typically cheaper to acquire than labeled data, this setup becomes advantageous as soon as one can exploit the unlabeled data in order to produce a better classifier than with labeled data alone. However, the…
This paper studies first order methods for solving smooth minimax optimization problems minxmaxyg(x,y) where g(⋅,⋅) is smooth and g(x,⋅) is concave for each x. In terms of g(⋅,y), we consider two settings -- strongly convex and nonconvex -- and improve upon the best known rates in both. …
Cross-domain recommendation has been proposed to transfer user behavior pattern by pooling together the rating data from multiple domains to alleviate the sparsity problem appearing in single rating domains. However, previous models only assume that multiple domains share a latent common rating pattern based on the use…