A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
An imprecise SHAP method explains class probabilities with limited data.
This work introduces a new metric for comparing imprecise probability models.
We give an overview of two approaches to probability theory where lower and upper probabilities, rather than probabilities, are used: Walley's behavioural theory of imprecise probabilities, and Shafer and Vovk's game-theoretic account of probability. We show that the two theories are more closely related than would be …
Study generalizes property elicitation to imprecise probabilities.
Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.
Paper introduces novel survival models for handling censored data.
Two strategies extend multi-label chaining for imprecise probability estimates.
New tools connect CP to GF inference for better probabilistic prediction.
The paper analyzes when credal sets stabilize under iterative updates in machine learning.
We introduce imprecise Markov semigroups to handle uncertainty in Markov processes.
Paper introduces imprecise logistic regression for handling uncertain data.
New approach for handling uncertain probabilities.
Study on how imprecise medical data affects predictions in hyperthyroidism.
We develop a new statistical test for comparing variables with varying scales.
New method achieves faster calibration without randomization.
In the presence of a layer of metaprobabilities (from uncertainty concerning the parameters), the asymptotic tail exponent corresponds to the lowest possible tail exponent regardless of its probability. The problem explains "Black Swan" effects, i.e., why measurements tend to chronically underestimate tail contribution…
We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance, which is arguably more suited for a behavioural theory of probability. Focusing on direct…
CBDL uses credal sets to improve uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
New framework improves model reliability under distribution shifts.
Develops possibilistic VI using maxitive Donsker-Varadhan formulation.
Walley's Imprecise Dirichlet Model (IDM) for categorical i.i.d. data extends the classical Dirichlet model to a set of priors. It overcomes several fundamental problems which other approaches to uncertainty suffer from. Yet, to be useful in practice, one needs efficient ways for computing the imprecise=robust sets or i…
Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main computational bottleneck being inference that is intractable. Tractable learning is a powerful new p…
An imprecise region is referred to as a geographical area without a clearly-defined boundary in the literature. Previous clustering-based approaches exploit spatial information to find such regions. However, the prior studies suffer from the following two problems: the subjectivity in selecting clustering parameters an…
The study establishes stability in WMOT, crucial for finance with imprecise data.
We consider the problem of estimating the transition rate matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain from a finite-duration realisation of this process. We approach this problem in an imprecise probabilistic framework, using a set of prior distributions on the unknown transition rate matrix. The resulting estimator is a …
Optimizes trading strategy for cointegrated assets with bounded risk.
In this paper, we consider a new low-quality label learning problem: learning time series detection models from temporally imprecise labels. In this problem, the data consist of a set of input time series, and supervision is provided by a sequence of noisy time stamps corresponding to the occurrence of positive class e…
This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively …
A method for predicting credal sets in classification tasks using conformal prediction.
This note corrects conditions in Proposition 3.4 and Theorem 5.2(ii) and comments on imprecisions in Propositions 4.2 and 4.4 in Fissler and Ziegel (2016).
We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection in data streams. Classical change-point detection procedures, such as CUSUM, Shiryaev-Roberts and Posterior Probability statistics, are optimal only if the change-point model is known, which is an unrealistic assumption in typical applied problems. Instead we p…
Prediction of future observations is an important and challenging problem. The two mainstream approaches for quantifying prediction uncertainty use prediction regions and predictive distributions, respectively, with the latter believed to be more informative because it can perform other prediction-related tasks. The st…
Paper improves conformal prediction for imprecise training data.
Quantum-enhanced metrology aims to estimate an unknown parameter such that the precision scales better than the shot-noise bound. Single-shot adaptive quantum-enhanced metrology (AQEM) is a promising approach that uses feedback to tweak the quantum process according to previous measurement outcomes. Techniques and form…
There is resurging interest, in statistics and machine learning, in solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that return probability measures instead of point estimates. Recently, Conrad et al. introduced a sampling-based class of methods that are 'well-calibrated' in a specific sense. But the computational c…
Learning disentangled representations is considered a cornerstone problem in representation learning. Recently, Locatello et al. (2019) demonstrated that unsupervised disentanglement learning without inductive biases is theoretically impossible and that existing inductive biases and unsupervised methods do not allow to…
Impact of chosen behavioural factors on imprecision of present value is discussed here. The formal model of behavioural present value is offered as a result of this discussion. Behavioural present value is described here by fuzzy set. These considerations were illustrated by means of extensive numerical case study. Fin…
We revisit logistic regression and its nonlinear extensions, including multilayer feedforward neural networks, by showing that these classifiers can be viewed as converting input or higher-level features into Dempster-Shafer mass functions and aggregating them by Dempster's rule of combination. The probabilistic output…
Scales gradual pattern discovery from imprecise data.
New method uses conformalization to create classification regions from ambiguous labels.
Proves hardness of semi-discrete optimal transport and proposes regularization methods.
In remote sensing, it is often challenging to acquire or collect a large dataset that is accurately labeled. This difficulty is usually due to several issues, including but not limited to the study site's spatial area and accessibility, errors in the global positioning system (GPS), and mixed pixels caused by an image'…
The paper proposes a method to find subgroups with significant treatment effects in noisy data.
New method compares classifiers using GSD-front, addressing statistical uncertainty and robustness.
Paper introduces Isotonic Mechanism for better item scoring.
Develops a category-theoretic approach to interpret conformal prediction.
Survey on 4-manifolds with specific curvature properties.
New method calibrates ambiguity sets for robust decision-making under contamination.