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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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87174260347 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for imperfect observations

Combining LETKF and RC improves chaotic system prediction from noisy, sparse data.

problem Improving chaotic system prediction from imperfect observations and models.
method Combining LETKF and RC to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems from noisy and sparsely distributed observations.
result The proposed method using LETKF and RC outperforms LETKF in predicting chaotic systems from noisy and sparse observations.

We study the effect of imperfect training data labels on the performance of classification methods. In a general setting, where the probability that an observation in the training dataset is mislabelled may depend on both the feature vector and the true label, we bound the excess risk of an arbitrary classifier trained…

2018-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Method maps imperfect simulations to observed stellar spectra using unsupervised domain adaptation.

problem Mapping from large sets of imperfect simulations and observational data.
method Adversarial autoencoders, cycle-consistency constraint, and generative surrogate physics emulator network.
result Reconstructed spectra quality and discovery of new spectral features.

Algorithm learns NE in imperfect information games with imperfect feedback.

problem Learning Nash equilibrium in imperfect information games with bandit feedback.
method IXOMD algorithm for model-free learning with 1/T1/\sqrt{T} convergence rate.
result IXOMD achieves 1/T1/\sqrt{T} convergence rate to NE.

The study examines how verifier imperfections impact test-time scaling techniques.

problem Understanding how verifier imperfections affect test-time scaling methods.
method Proves the instance-level accuracy of Best-of-N and Rejection Sampling methods using the geometry of the verifier's ROC curve.
result RS outperforms BoN for fixed compute, but both converge to the same accuracy in the infinite-compute limit.

Greedy policies perform poorly in imperfectly observed contextual bandits.

problem Performance of Greedy policies in bandits with partially observed contexts.
method Analysis of Greedy reinforcement learning policies under imperfectly observed contextual bandits.
result Worst-case regret grows poly-logarithmically with the time horizon and the failure probability.

Cash collateral is perfect in that it provides simultaneous counterparty credit risk protection and derivatives funding. Securities are imperfect collateral, because of collateral segregation or differences in CSA haircuts and repo haircuts. Moreover, the collateral rate term structure is not observable in the repo mar…

2017-02-14abs ↗pdf ↗

Adaptive OMD reduces variance in learning optimal strategies for imperfect information games.

problem High variance in learning optimal strategies for imperfect information games.
method Fixed sampling approach with locally applied Online Mirror Descent (OMD) algorithm.
result Convergence rate of ildeO(T1/2) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{-1/2}) with high probability.

Most approaches aiming to ensure a model's fairness with respect to a protected attribute (such as gender or race) assume to know the true value of the attribute for every data point. In this paper, we ask to what extent fairness interventions can be effective even when only imperfect information about the protected at…

2019-06-07abs ↗pdf ↗

This thesis tackles data imperfections in ML, proposing methods to prevent discrimination and spurious feature learning.

problem Data imperfections in ML training data, leading to deployment failures.
method Fair representation learning, spurious feature detection, and data augmentation for reinforcement learning.
result Methods to make ML models more robust to data imperfections.

The paper tackles learning from imperfect human feedback, especially in dueling bandit problems.

problem Learning from human feedback that can be irrational or imperfect.
method Developed a Robustified Stochastic Mirror Descent for Imperfect Dueling (RoSMID) algorithm.
result Achieved nearly optimal regret for dueling bandit problems under imperfect human feedback.

Bayesian framework calibrates imperfect models using physics-informed priors and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in imperfect computer models described by differential equations.
method Physics-informed Gaussian process priors, discrepancy function, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, data approximations.
result Framework accurately recovers true parameters and produces accurate predictions.

Investigates a Kyle model with imperfect information and risk aversion.

problem Tackles a Kyle model with imperfect information and risk-averse informed traders.
method Solves an optimal transport problem and a filtering problem under specific measures.
result Constructs an equilibrium for the Gaussian Kyle model with imperfect information and risk aversion.

Imitation learning (IL) aims to learn an optimal policy from demonstrations. However, such demonstrations are often imperfect since collecting optimal ones is costly. To effectively learn from imperfect demonstrations, we propose a novel approach that utilizes confidence scores, which describe the quality of demonstrat…

2019-01-27abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper examines how builders in Ethereum auctions can defect and replicate winning MEV opportunities, affecting searchers' bidding strategies.

problem Commitment problem in Ethereum auctions where builders can defect and replicate winning MEV opportunities.
method Modeling and analysis of searchers' bidding strategies and the resulting equilibrium, using libMEV dataset.
result The equilibrium is piecewise, with the cost of imperfect commitment depending on replicability and competition. There is sharp heterogeneity across MEV types.

Policy gradient method proves convergence in imperfect-information games.

problem Policy gradient methods in imperfect-information games (EFGs).
method Policy gradient approach with best-iterate convergence.
result Policy gradient leads to provable best-iterate convergence in self-play EFGs.

The paper analyzes insurance pricing and capital allocation in imperfect markets.

problem Analyzing insurance pricing and capital allocation in imperfect markets.
method Non-additive distortion pricing functional and principle of equal priority of payments in default.
result Derives the natural allocation of premium and margin with properties that merit the name.

Paper studies distributed kernel regression with imperfect kernels, achieving optimal rates.

problem Optimal rates of distributed regression with imperfect kernels.
method Divide and conquer approach, response weighted base algorithms, leave one out analysis, bias correction.
result Achieves capacity independent optimal rates for distributed kernel regression with imperfect kernels.

JPS improves joint policies for multi-agent collaboration in imperfect information games.

problem Learning good joint policies for multi-agent collaboration with imperfect information.
method Decomposes global changes to localized policy changes, iteratively improving joint policies without re-evaluating the entire game.
result JPS improves solutions provided by unilateral approaches and outperforms algorithms designed for collaborative policy learning.

MEDIDA discovers model errors in chaotic systems using sparse regression and data assimilation.

problem Model errors in chaotic systems lead to significant discrepancies between model predictions and real-world states.
method MEDIDA combines Bayesian sparse regression and data assimilation to estimate and interpret model errors from noisy observations.
result MEDIDA successfully identifies different types of model errors in the chaotic Kuramoto-Sivashinsky system.

Safe autonomous decisions made with machine learning predictions using Conformal Decision Theory.

problem Safe decisions from imperfect machine learning predictions.
method Conformal Decision Theory framework for producing safe decisions.
result Safe decisions with provable statistical guarantees of low risk.

Model financial markets using open quantum systems to understand market imperfections.

problem Understanding market imperfections through imperfect trading mechanisms.
method Using open quantum systems to represent financial markets, characterizing orbits, and analyzing reduced density matrices.
result Non-classical modes of time evolution can incorporate factors like illiquid trades and imperfect trading mechanisms.

New taxonomy reveals different detection limits for various types of fraud.

problem Existing fraud detection treats all fraud as the same, ignoring its diverse forms.
method Introduced an observation-mechanism taxonomy with five fraud classes.
result Separate estimation by fraud class outperforms pooled estimation.

Researchers develop methods for causal inference with imperfect instrumental variables.

problem Quantifying cause and effect relationships with imperfect instrumental variables.
method Established a quantitative relationship between violations of instrumental inequalities and minimal measurement dependence, providing adapted inequalities valid in the presence of relaxed measurement dependence.
result Adapted inequalities for average causal effect in instrumental scenarios with binary outcomes, addressing violations of instrumental inequalities.

Modeling the purposeful behavior of imperfect agents from a small number of observations is a challenging task. When restricted to the single-agent decision-theoretic setting, inverse optimal control techniques assume that observed behavior is an approximately optimal solution to an unknown decision problem. These tech…

2013-08-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper solves learning imperfect-information games with fewer episodes.

problem Learning imperfect-information extensive-form games from bandit feedback.
method Balanced Online Mirror Descent and Balanced Counterfactual Regret Minimization algorithms.
result Achieves near-optimal sample complexity for finding approximate Nash equilibria.

We study pricing and superhedging strategies for game options in an imperfect market with default. We extend the results obtained by Kifer in \cite{Kifer} in the case of a perfect market model to the case of an imperfect market with default, when the imperfections are taken into account via the nonlinearity of the weal…

2015-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian framework mixes imperfect models for improved predictions.

problem Improving predictions of complex computational models in unknown domains.
method Local Bayesian Dirichlet mixing of imperfect models using the Dirichlet distribution.
result Global and local mixtures of models achieve excellent performance in prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Selective planning with imperfect models reduces harmful effects of model inadequacy.

problem Harmful effects of using an imperfect model in reinforcement learning.
method Selective planning with heteroscedastic regression to estimate predictive uncertainty from model inadequacy.
result Effective selective planning requires considering both parameter uncertainty and model inadequacy.

New method uses imperfect LLM annotations for valid statistical inference in social science.

problem Inaccurate large language model annotations in social science research.
method Design-based supervised learning (DSL) combining imperfect LLM surrogates with gold-standard labels.
result DSL provides valid statistical inference with comparable predictive accuracy to existing methods.

DREAM learns optimal strategies in imperfect games without needing a simulator.

problem Learning optimal strategies in imperfect-information games with multiple agents.
method DREAM is a deep reinforcement learning algorithm that converges to Nash Equilibria and coarse correlated equilibria.
result DREAM achieves state-of-the-art performance in benchmark games and is competitive with simulator-based algorithms.

Study on liquidity and market efficiency in auction games with imperfect information.

problem Generating liquidity in illiquid auction markets with imperfect information.
method Characterized Nash equilibria in a two-player game with imperfect information, linking market spreads to signal strength.
result Without incentives, the market is inefficient and does not lead to trades. Quadratic fees indexed on half spread can generate liquidity.

This paper explores how imperfect reward models can improve online RLHF.

problem Sample efficiency in online RLHF from imperfect reward models.
method Identifies policy coverability and proposes TPO algorithm for transfer learning.
result TPO algorithm improves sample efficiency compared to standard online learning.

New algorithm uses imperfect advice to improve online bipartite matching performance.

problem Online bipartite matching with imperfect advice.
method Designing an algorithm that uses external advice to improve performance between advice-free methods and optimal ratio.
result Algorithm achieves competitive ratio interpolating between advice-free methods and optimal ratio of 1.

A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.

problem How to balance reliance on imperfect volatility proxies in one-sided VaR recalibration.
method Proxy-reliance control framework that interpolates between constant-shift and proxy-scaled corrections.
result Lower or intermediate proxy reliance can outperform fully proxy-scaled recalibration in stressed left-tail VaR control.

We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncert…

2001-08-02abs ↗pdf ↗