arXiv research

Paper justifies ideal point forecasts as measurable, clarifying conditions for their existence.

Many applications require the ability to judge uncertainty of time-series forecasts. Uncertainty is often specified as point-wise error bars around a mean or median forecast. Due to temporal dependencies, such a method obscures some information. We would ideally have a way to query the posterior probability of the enti…

Predictions are issued on the basis of certain information. If the forecasting mechanisms are correctly specified, a larger amount of available information should lead to better forecasts. For point forecasts, we show how the effect of increasing the information set can be quantified by using strictly consistent scorin…

Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1) using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2) using traffic during the first year of operations as the basis for measu…

We give a simple method to find ideal points of the character variety of a 3-manifold from an ideal triangulation.

TBIP uses texts to quantify lawmakers' political positions.

Study shows how certain knots and tori are detected by ideal points in character varieties.

The study counts ideal points in 2-bridge knot complements using knot diagrams.

The paper synthesizes the mathematics of modeling the future.

Numerical computations suggest that each point on a certain optimized shape called the ideal trefoil is in contact with two other points. We consider sequences of such contact points, such that each point is in contact with its predecessor and call it a billiard. Our numerics suggest that a particular billiard on the i…

The paper proves ideal triangulations and disk unfolding for singular flat surfaces.

Given a 3 manifold M with torus boundary and an ideal triangulation, Yoshida and Tillmann give different methods to construct surfaces embedded in M from ideal points of the deformation variety. Yoshida builds a surface from twisted squares whereas Tillmann produces a spun-normal surface. We investigate the relation be…

Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…

Essential tori in certain 3-manifolds are missed by ideal points in character varieties.

We prove that any Bonahon-Siebenmann family of Conway spheres for a hyperbolic link is associated to an ideal point of the character variety of the link.

Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction

This paper learns user preferences from comparisons using Mahalanobis metrics.

We study incompressible surfaces constructed by Culler-Shalen theory in the context of twisted Alexander polynomials. For a $1$st cohomology class of a $3$-manifold the coefficients of twisted Alexander polynomials induce regular functions on the $SL_2(\mathbb{C})$-character variety. We prove that if an ideal point giv…

The vanishing ideal is a set of polynomials that takes zero value on the given data points. Originally proposed in computer algebra, the vanishing ideal has been recently exploited for extracting the nonlinear structures of data in many applications. To avoid overfitting to noisy data, the polynomials are often designe…

Closed essential surfaces in a three-manifold can be detected by ideal points of the character variety or by algebraic non-integral representations. We give examples of closed essential surfaces not detected in either of these ways. For ideal points, we use Chesebro's module-theoretic interpretation of Culler-Shalen th…

We discuss two different in general natural approaches to the ideal closure and ideal boundary of Busemann nonpositively curved metric space. It is shown that the identity map of the space admits surjective continuation from its coarse ideal closure to the weak one. We consider some situations when these closures coinc…

New dynamical approach defines symmedian as hyperbolic barycenter.

OFTER predicts multivariate time series online, outperforming baselines.

New method predicts wave height exceedance probabilities.

The notion of ideal immersions was introduced by the author in 1990s. Roughly speaking, an ideal immersion of a Riemannian manifold into a real space form is a nice isometric immersion which produces the least possible amount of tension from the ambient space at each point. In this paper, we classify all ideal hypersur…

This paper gives examples of hyperbolic 3-manifolds whose SL(2,C) character varieties have ideal points whose associated roots of unity are not 1 or -1. This answers a question of Cooper, Culler, Gillet, Long, and Shalen as to whether roots of unity other than 1 and -1 occur.

This paper surveys some of the known results on $δ$-ideal CR submanifolds in complex space forms, the nearly Kähler $6$-sphere and odd dimensional unit spheres. In addition, the relationship between $δ$-ideal CR submanifolds and critical points of the $λ$-bienergy is mentioned. Some topics on variational problem for th…

The paper presents a machine learning framework to combine weather forecasts from multiple models.

In this paper we state and prove the analogous of the principal ideal theorem of algebraic number theory for the case of 3-manifolds from the point of view of arithmetic topology.

Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.

The coefficients of twisted Alexander polynomials of a knot induce regular functions of the $SL_2(\mathbb{C})$-character variety. We prove that the function of the highest degree has a finite value at an ideal point which gives a minimal genus Seifert surface by Culler-Shalen theory. It implies a partial affirmative an…

Roughly speaking, an ideal immersion of a Riemannian manifold into a real space form is an isometric immersion which produces the least possible amount of tension from the ambient space at each point of the submanifold. The main purpose of this paper is to completely classify all non-minimal ideal submanifolds of real …

A framework for forecasting high-dimensional time-series data using clustering.

The notion of ideal embeddings was introduced in [B.-Y. Chen, {Strings of Riemannian invariants, inequalities, ideal immersions and their applications.} The Third Pacific Rim Geometry Conference (Seoul, 1996), 7-60, Int. Press, Cambridge, MA, 1998]. Roughly speaking, an ideal embedding (or a best of living) is an isome…

We prove that ideal boundary of a 7-systolic group is strongly hereditarily aspherical. For some class of 7-systolic groups we show their boundaries are connected and without local cut points, thus getting some results concerning splittings of those groups.

Optimizes loan recovery timing by forecasting cash flows.

A submanifold in space forms satisfies the well-known DDVV inequality due to De Smet, Dillen, Verstraelen and Vrancken. The submanifold attaining equality in the DDVV inequality at every point is called Wintgen ideal submanifold. As conformal invariant objects, Wintgen ideal submanifolds are studied in this paper using…

Paper introduces probabilistic forecasting methods for cryptocurrency volatility.

Predicting delayed outcomes is an important problem in recommender systems (e.g., if customers will finish reading an ebook). We formalize the problem as an adversarial, delayed online learning problem and consider how a proxy for the delayed outcome (e.g., if customers read a third of the book in 24 hours) can help mi…

This paper introduces CloudLSTM, a new branch of recurrent neural models tailored to forecasting over data streams generated by geospatial point-cloud sources. We design a Dynamic Point-cloud Convolution (DConv) operator as the core component of CloudLSTMs, which performs convolution directly over point-clouds and extr…

Forecasting COVID-19 cases in Senegal using machine learning.

Deep models forecast epidemics with uncertainty quantification.

EventFlow forecasts event sequences without autoregression, improving accuracy.

This paper improves forecast stability without sacrificing accuracy using dynamic loss weighting.

AutoPQ automates quantile forecasting for smart grids, reducing workload and environmental impact.

Culler and Shalen, and later Yoshida, give ways to construct incompressible surfaces in 3-manifolds from ideal points of the character and deformation varieties, respectively. We work in the case of hyperbolic punctured torus bundles, for which the incompressible surfaces were classified by Floyd and Hatcher. We conver…

The paper studies ideal flows of closed curves, classifying critical points and proving flow behavior.

Minimal biharmonic hypersurfaces in Euclidean spaces are ideal.