Paper optimizes hypothesis verification in sequential experiments.
problem Maximizing confidence in a verified hypothesis after exploration.
method Formulated as a confidence maximization problem in a POMDP, characterized optimal solutions, and proposed a heuristic.
result Heuristic performs better than existing methods in some scenarios.
For analysis of a high-dimensional dataset, a common approach is to test a null hypothesis of statistical independence on all variable pairs using a non-parametric measure of dependence. However, because this approach attempts to identify any non-trivial relationship no matter how weak, it often identifies too many rel…
Method calculates financial distributions using recursive relationships.
problem Analyzing the distribution of financial functions at discrete points.
method Recursive method to calculate probability distributions.
result High accuracy demonstrated in numerical experiments.
Novel method models dynamic brain graphs from time series data.
problem Generating hypotheses for dynamic brain states.
method Conditionally weighted superposition of static graphs.
result Improves f1-scores by 22-28% on average over baselines.
Recently the interest of researchers has shifted from the analysis of synchronous relationships of financial instruments to the analysis of more meaningful asynchronous relationships. Both of those analyses are concentrated only on Pearson's correlation coefficient and thus intraday lead-lag relationships associated wi…
Study bounds deepfake detection error probability using robust statistics.
problem Limiting error in deepfake detection.
method Formulated as hypothesis testing, uses robust statistics and Euclidean approximation.
result Established relationships between error probability and network thresholds.
Model predicts future term connections in biomedical research.
problem Capturing temporal dynamics and unobserved connections in biomedical term relationships.
method Variational inference model for positive-unlabeled learning on dynamic graphs.
result Model effectively predicts term relationships in real-world datasets.
Proposes a new model for testing causal structural priors and synthesizing data.
problem Testing and synthesizing causal structural priors using nonparametric knowledge and neural networks.
method Causal Structural Hypothesis Testing (C-SHT) and Causal Structural Variational Hypothesis Testing (C-SVHT) using deep neural networks.
result Demonstrates out-of-distribution generalization error as a proxy for causal structural prior hypothesis testing.
New neural network predicts user-item relationships in evolving graphs.
problem Link prediction in dynamic graphs for recommendation services.
method Proposes a new neural network approach to leverage temporal contextual information.
result Our approach produces better predictions in scenarios with changing user-item relationships.
We explore a relationship between topological properties of orbits of 2-cycles in the symplectomorphism group Symp(M) and the existence of rational curves in M. Under the absence of rational curves hypothesis, we show that evaluation map vanishies on the second homotopy group and obtain a Gottlieb-type vanishing theore…
This paper proposes a new AL method that directly uses geometric sampling over clusters.
problem Performance degeneration in uncertainty evaluation for AL with insufficient labeled data.
method Divide-and-conquer approach to AL, transferring it to geometric sampling over clusters.
result The proposed GAL method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.
Imputation method respects manifold structure for missing data.
problem Missing data imputation in high-dimensional data.
method Model-based imputation using mixture variational autoencoders and sampling-importance-resampling (SIR).
result Competitive performance and uncertainty quantification in imputations.
Study lead-lag relationships in foreign exchange markets using three approaches.
problem Lack of research on lead-lag relationships in foreign exchange markets.
method Three approaches: lagged correlations, lagged partial correlations, and Granger causality.
result Statistically significant lead-lag relationships found in some exchange rate pairs.
Kauffman and Lomonaco explored the idea of understanding quantum entanglement (the non-local correlation of certain properties of particles) topologically by viewing unitary entangling operators as braiding operators. In the work of G. Alagic, M. Jarret, and S. Jordan it is shown that entanglement is a necessary condit…
We propose a new notion of `n-category with duals', which we call a Whitney n-category. There are two motivations. The first is that Baez and Dolan's Tangle Hypothesis is (almost) tautological when interpreted as a statement about Whitney categories. The second is that we can functorially construct `fundamental Whitney…
A new contrastive learning method extracts asset embeddings from financial time series.
problem Extracting meaningful latent features from noisy financial data.
method Contrastive learning framework using hypothesis testing for positive and negative samples.
result Effective asset embeddings significantly outperform existing methods on financial tasks.
Three DP variants linked, improving SGD privacy bounds.
problem Relating different DP variants for tighter privacy bounds.
method Developed machinery to relate approximate DP to RDP and hypothesis test DP.
result Improved privacy guarantees for noisy SGD.
AGATHA predicts promising research directions from scientific data.
problem Efficiently winnowing thousands of potential targets in drug discovery.
method Deep-learning hypothesis generation system that ranks plausible term-pairs.
result Best-in-class performance on an established benchmark, high recommendation scores across subdomains.
Extends linear representation hypothesis to categorical and hierarchical concepts in LLMs.
problem Representing concepts without natural contrasts in large language models.
method Formalizes linear representation hypothesis for categorical and hierarchical concepts, proving relationships between concept hierarchy and representation geometry.
result Validated theoretical results on large language models, estimating representations for 900+ concepts.
ImageNet models transfer well across datasets but not fine-grained ones.
problem Evaluation of transfer learning between ImageNet and other vision tasks.
method Comparison of 16 classification networks on 12 datasets, focusing on ImageNet and fine-tuned settings.
result Strong correlation between ImageNet accuracy and transfer accuracy, but limited transfer to fine-grained tasks.
Paper confirms winning tickets have sharp minima, useful for generalization.
problem Explaining why over-parameterized models generalize well despite having sharp minima.
method PAC-Bayesian theory applied to analyze winning tickets and their generalization behavior.
result PAC-Bayesian theory confirms winning tickets have relatively sharp minima, a disadvantage for generalization.
Customer momentum is a positive relationship between a firm's returns and past returns of its customers.
problem Understanding the relationship between a firm's returns and its customers' past returns.
method Examined customer momentum using a long-short equally-weighted decile portfolio and Fama-French factor models.
result Customer momentum generates significant monthly returns and is statistically significant.
We detect the backbone of the weighted bipartite network of the Japanese credit market relationships. The backbone is detected by adapting a general method used in the investigation of weighted networks. With this approach we detect a backbone that is statistically validated against a null hypothesis of uniform diversi…
Study finds investor sentiment has a significant positive relationship with stock returns in Moroccan and Tunisian markets.
problem Investor sentiment and stock returns relationship in Moroccan and Tunisian markets.
method Used indirect measures of investor sentiment (SENT and ARMS) and Granger causality tests.
result Sentiment has a significant positive relationship with stock returns, but not the other way around.
Geometric framework explains memorization in generative models.
problem Memorization in generative models raises legal and privacy concerns.
method Manifold memorization hypothesis (MMH) using manifold geometry.
result Formalizes and categorizes memorization into overfitting and distribution-driven types.
Study examines how trading volumes and transactions affect stock volatility.
problem Understanding the impact of trading volumes and transactions on stock volatility.
method Used GARCH models to analyze daily stock data of the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
result GARCH effects are not always removed by adding trading volumes or transactions, suggesting they don't fully represent information arrivals.
The paper develops a new method to interpret deep neural networks using Cohen's f2.
problem Interpreting variable effects in deep neural networks is challenging due to their complexity and lack of statistical inferences.
method The paper adapts Fisher's variable permutation algorithm and applies statistical tests to Apley's accumulated local effect plots.
result The method provides a way to quantify and statistically assess the influence of variables in deep neural networks.
Study proposes new methods to convert betting odds into accurate probabilities for sports forecasting.
problem Convert betting odds to accurate outcome probabilities for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis.
method Proposes two methods: Odds-Only-Equal-Profitability-Confidence (OO-EPC) and Favourite-Longshot-Bias-Adjusted Generalised Linear Model (FL-GLM).
result Proposed methods outperform existing methods in empirical tests and real-world applications.
Bayesian method optimizes interventions for causal discovery.
problem Active interventions are needed for causal discovery when observational data is insufficient.
method Bayesian optimization-based approach using observational data and pre-experimental evaluation of interventions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through various experiments.
In this paper we study the relationship of hyperbolicity and (Cheeger) isoperimetric inequality in the context of Riemannian manifolds and graphs. We characterize the hyperbolic manifolds and graphs (with bounded local geometry) verifying this isoperimetric inequality, in terms of their Gromov boundary. Furthermore, we…
It is believed by the majority today that the efficient market hypothesis is imperfect because of market irrationality. Using the physical concepts and mathematical structures of quantum mechanics, we construct an econophysics framework for the stock market, based on which we analogously map massive numbers of single s…
According to the leading models in modern finance, the presence of intraday lead-lag relationships between financial assets is negligible in efficient markets. With the advance of technology, however, markets have become more sophisticated. To determine whether this has resulted in an improved market efficiency, we inv…
We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the dire…
The paper characterizes hyperbolic manifolds and graphs verifying a specific isoperimetric inequality.
problem Understanding the relationship between hyperbolicity and isoperimetric inequalities in manifolds and graphs.
method Characterization of hyperbolic manifolds and graphs with isoperimetric inequality, using Gromov boundary.
result Having a pole is a necessary condition for verifying the isoperimetric inequality, which can be removed.
The study sets lower bounds on MMSE for inferring sensitive features from noisy data.
problem Estimating sensitive features from noisy observations of correlated features.
method Adversarial evaluation framework based on MMSE estimation with theoretical lower bounds.
result Derives closed-form bounds for linear models, showing optimality in noise variance.
The postulate of independence of cause and mechanism (ICM) has recently led to several new causal discovery algorithms. The interpretation of independence and the way it is utilized, however, varies across these methods. Our aim in this paper is to propose a group theoretic framework for ICM to unify and generalize the…
A bootstrap test detects prominent Granger-causalities across frequencies.
problem Detecting significant Granger-causal relationships between time series.
method Bootstrap test on Granger-causality spectra and their differences.
result Significant Granger-causal relationships detected at all frequencies for M1 and GDP, but only at high frequencies for GDP and M1.
We present a new approach to understanding credit relationships between commercial banks and quoted firms, and with this approach, examine the temporal change in the structure of the Japanese credit network from 1980 to 2005. At each year, the credit network is regarded as a weighted bipartite graph where edges corresp…
A new framework for brain mapping using statistical agnostic methods.
problem Estimating brain connectivity with limited data and controlling false positives.
method Statistical Agnostic Mapping (SAM) based on concentration inequalities.
result Relieves instability and provides less conservative p-value correction.
Conditional independence tests (CI tests) have received special attention lately in Machine Learning and Computational Intelligence related literature as an important indicator of the relationship among the variables used by their models. In the field of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM)--which includes Bayesian Net…
Generative models can approximate high-dimensional data from lower dimensions without needing a latent dimension equal to or greater than the data's intrinsic dimension.
problem Theoretical limitations on the latent dimension required for generative models to approximate high-dimensional data distributions.
method Inspired by space-filling curves, the work demonstrates that generative networks can approximate distributions on d-dimensional manifolds from inputs of any arbitrary dimension, even lower than d. result Generative models can approximate high-dimensional data distributions from lower-dimensional inputs without needing a latent dimension equal to or greater than the data's intrinsic dimension.
Kernel embeddings help estimate causal effects from observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects from observational data with confounding variables.
method Kernel embeddings in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS).
result Robust nonparametric framework for causal inference.
We introduce a simple agent-based model which allows us to analyze three stylized facts: a fat-tailed size distribution of companies, a `tent-shaped' growth rate distribution, the scaling relation of the growth rate variance with firm size, and the causality between them. This is achieved under the simple hypothesis th…
Study shows it's impossible to count communities without finding them.
problem Determining the number and sizes of communities in random graph models.
method Hypothesis testing between models with different community structures, using low-degree polynomial framework.
result Testing between two different planted distributions is as hard as finding the communities.
New method identifies causal relationships using proxy variables in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships due to unmeasured confounding.
method Develops a general nonparametric approach using a single negative control outcome (NCO) and negative control exposure (NCE).
result Establishes a new identification result and proposes a kernel-based testing procedure.
Study of loss functions for learning to defer, proving consistency.
problem Learning to defer in machine learning.
method Introduced a family of surrogate losses parameterized by Ψ and proved their consistency. result Proved realizable H-consistency and Bayes-consistency of specific surrogate losses. Enhances neural models with simple functions to improve language modeling.
problem Neural models struggle with certain spatial, temporal, or quantitative relationships.
method Integrates simple functions into neural architecture to form a hierarchical NSLM.
result NSLMs significantly reduce perplexity in small-corpus language modeling.
AI simplifies trading strategies, potentially making markets more efficient.
problem Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) relies on traders optimising trading strategies based on information.
method Generalised notion of market efficiency, distinguishing model complexity through investor beliefs and trading strategies.
result Increased availability of low-cost AI systems may push towards more advanced trading strategies, potentially harder for inefficient traders.