The paper investigates how ambiguous data and cognitive biases affect machine learning in humanitarian decision making.
problem Ambiguous data and cognitive biases impact the interpretability of machine learning models in humanitarian decision making.
method The study will explore the effects of data ambiguity and cognitive biases on machine learning algorithms in humanitarian contexts.
result The research aims to uncover the specific ways in which ambiguous data and cognitive biases influence the interpretability of machine learning models in humanitarian decision making.
We present our first efforts in building an automatic speech recognition system for Somali, an under-resourced language, using 1.57 hrs of annotated speech for acoustic model training. The system is part of an ongoing effort by the United Nations (UN) to implement keyword spotting systems supporting humanitarian relief…
With the rapid expansion of mobile phone networks in developing countries, large-scale graph machine learning has gained sudden relevance in the study of global poverty. Recent applications range from humanitarian response and poverty estimation to urban planning and epidemic containment. Yet the vast majority of compu…
Data on human spatial distribution and movement is essential for understanding and analyzing social systems. However existing sources for this data are lacking in various ways; difficult to access, biased, have poor geographical or temporal resolution, or are significantly delayed. In this paper, we describe how geoloc…
Study forecasts food security trends using real-time data.
problem Food insecurity prediction for sub-national regions.
method Quantitative methodology combining various machine learning models.
result Reservoir Computing model performs best in food security prediction.
Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challen…
We consider multilingual bottleneck features (BNFs) for nearly zero-resource keyword spotting. This forms part of a United Nations effort using keyword spotting to support humanitarian relief programmes in parts of Africa where languages are severely under-resourced. We use 1920 isolated keywords (40 types, 34 minutes)…
Paper proposes evaluation methods for climate change illustrations.
problem Lack of metrics to compare realism in conditional generative models.
method Adapted and assessed several existing metrics, including FID.
result FID with Inception-V3 embeddings correlates best with human realism.
We compare features for dynamic time warping (DTW) when used to bootstrap keyword spotting (KWS) in an almost zero-resource setting. Such quickly-deployable systems aim to support United Nations (UN) humanitarian relief efforts in parts of Africa with severely under-resourced languages. Our objective is to identify aco…
Study optimizes smart contract adoption under high demand variability using Negative Binomial models.
problem Effective supply chain management under high demand variability.
method Combines dynamic Negative Binomial demand modeling with endogenous smart contract adoption optimization.
result The NB model outperforms other benchmarks in forecasting and optimizing smart contract adoption and order quantity.
Study adapts OHLC volatility estimators for monitoring market stress in diverse settings.
problem Limited use of range-based volatility estimators in local commodity markets.
method Adapted OHLC volatility estimators to monitor market distress across various contexts.
result OHLC-based volatility indicators detect market disruptions missed by standard momentum indicators.
There are non-vanishing price responses across different stocks in correlated financial markets. We further study this issue by performing different averages, which identify active and passive cross-responses. The two average cross-responses show different characteristic dependences on the time lag. The passive cross-r…
Automated scoring engines are increasingly being used to score the free-form text responses that students give to questions. Such engines are not designed to appropriately deal with responses that a human reader would find alarming such as those that indicate an intention to self-harm or harm others, responses that all…
Previous studies of the stock price response to individual trades focused on single stocks. We empirically investigate the price response of one stock to the trades of other stocks. How large is the impact of one stock on others and vice versa? -- This impact of trades on the price change across stocks appears to be tr…
Study evaluates different price response definitions for NASDAQ stocks.
problem Understanding the long-lasting effects of trading activity on stock prices.
method Examined two different price response implementations for NASDAQ Trades and Quotes (TAQ) data.
result Results are qualitatively the same for two different time scale definitions, but response can vary by up to a factor of two.
Interpretable text-response modelling for structured outcomes
problem Predicting structured responses alongside textual data
method Joint non-negative matrix factorisation and binomial regression
result Recovering stable response-relevant textual signals
LaRT models LLMs' response accuracy and CoT length to evaluate reasoning ability and speed.
problem Valid evaluation of Large Language Models (LLMs) via response accuracy and chain-of-thought length.
method Introduces Latency-Response Theory (LaRT) to jointly model response accuracy and CoT length using latent ability and latent speed.
result LaRT yields higher estimation accuracy and shorter confidence intervals for latent traits compared to IRT.
Previous studies of the stock price response to trades focused on the dynamics of single stocks, i.e. they addressed the self-response. We empirically investigate the price response of one stock to the trades of other stocks in a correlated market, i.e. the cross-responses. How large is the impact of one stock on other…
New method handles correlated responses and interaction effects in multi-response regression.
problem Handling correlated responses and interaction effects in multi-response regression.
method MADMMplasso, an ADMM-based approach for multi-response regression with overlapping groups and interaction effects.
result The proposed method outperforms in prediction and variable selection for correlated responses and interaction effects.
Study analyzes price response and spread impact in foreign exchange markets.
problem Understanding deviations from Markovian behavior in foreign exchange markets.
method Detailed large-scale data analysis of price response functions for different years and time scales, using pip bid-ask spread definition.
result Large pip spreads significantly impact price response in foreign exchange markets.
PEER tackles multi-response regression with incomplete outcomes efficiently.
problem Challenges in estimating, predicting, and computing with large-scale multi-response regression and incomplete outcomes.
method PEER converts multi-response regression into parallel univariate-response regressions.
result PEER achieves consistency in estimation, prediction, and variable selection.
New method for explaining dialogue response generation models.
problem Interpreting sequence generation models, especially dialogue response generation.
method Local Explanation of Response Generation (LERG) method.
result LERG improves dialogue response generation explanations compared to existing methods.
An important, yet largely unstudied, problem in student data analysis is to detect misconceptions from students' responses to open-response questions. Misconception detection enables instructors to deliver more targeted feedback on the misconceptions exhibited by many students in their class, thus improving the quality…
Enhances traditional MV model for socially responsible investors.
problem Traditional MV models ignore ESG scores relevant to socially responsible investors.
method Implemented an amended MV model considering ESG scores.
result SR investors can achieve competitive SR portfolios with a trade-off between Sharpe Ratio and ESG scores.
In this study we present a kernel based convolution model to characterize neural responses to natural sounds by decoding their time-varying acoustic features. The model allows to decode natural sounds from high-dimensional neural recordings, such as magnetoencephalography (MEG), that track timing and location of human …
Active learning suffers from biased non-response, which this paper addresses.
problem Active learning's effectiveness is compromised by biased non-response in real-world contexts.
method Proposes a cost-based correction to the sampling strategy, UCB-EU, to mitigate the impact of biased non-response.
result UCB-EU successfully reduces the harm from labelling non-response in many settings.
The paper proposes a new method to evaluate LLM agent responses using ECDF clustering.
problem The standard evaluation of LLM agent responses via majority voting obscures response quality and distribution.
method The paper introduces a novel evaluation framework based on ECDF of cosine similarities and clustering of ECDFs using distances and k-medoids algorithm. result ECDF clustering reveals interpretable group structures in LLM responses, offering insights into agent settings.
Estimation of response functions is an important task in dynamic medical imaging. This task arises for example in dynamic renal scintigraphy, where impulse response or retention functions are estimated, or in functional magnetic resonance imaging where hemodynamic response functions are required. These functions can no…
New framework for managing medical risks using convex responses.
problem Medical risk management and dosing optimization.
method Analyzes convex and concave dose-response functions, defines antifragility.
result Proposes a mathematical framework for integrating nonlinearities in oncology.
Previous work on recommender systems mainly focus on fitting the ratings provided by users. However, the response patterns, i.e., some items are rated while others not, are generally ignored. We argue that failing to observe such response patterns can lead to biased parameter estimation and sub-optimal model performanc…
The paper provides risk bounds for learning many response functions using linear regression.
problem Learning many response functions from a single dataset.
method Ordinary least squares regression in a high-dimensional feature space.
result Convergence guarantees on worst-case excess prediction risk for infinite response functions with finite VC dimension.
Study optimizes classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
problem Optimizing classifiers for credit card mail campaigns and default prediction.
method Three distinct models: response, risk, and response-risk. Optimized various performance metrics.
result Random Forest classifier achieves highest accuracy (83.2%) in multi-class response-risk model.
We propose and analyze sequential design methods for the problem of ranking several response surfaces. Namely, given L≥2 response surfaces over a continuous input space X, the aim is to efficiently find the index of the minimal response across the entire X. The response surfaces are not known and ha…
ESRLCM clusters similar responses, more broadly than traditional models.
problem Clustering multivariate categorical data with common response patterns.
method Bayesian Equivalence Set Restricted Latent Class Model (ESRLCM).
result ESRLCM identifies clusters with similar item response probabilities.
A key goal of computational personalized medicine is to systematically utilize genomic and other molecular features of samples to predict drug responses for a previously unseen sample. Such predictions are valuable for developing hypotheses for selecting therapies tailored for individual patients. This is especially va…
DFNNs predict non-Euclidean responses from Euclidean predictors.
problem Regression with non-Euclidean responses.
method Deep Fréchet neural networks (DFNNs) approximating conditional Fréchet means.
result DFNNs consistently outperform existing methods in empirical studies.
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
New method predicts nonfactuality in LLM responses using semantic isotropy.
problem Assessing trustworthiness of long-form LLM responses efficiently.
method Semantic isotropy of text embeddings on the unit sphere.
result Higher semantic isotropy correlates with lower factual consistency.
In this paper, we study the price responsiveness of electricity consumption from empirical commercial and industrial load data obtained from Texas. Employing a dynamical system perspective, we show that price responsive demand can be modeled as a hybrid of a Hammerstein model with delay following a price surge, and a l…
We study the problem of estimating the continuous response over time to interventions using observational time series---a retrospective dataset where the policy by which the data are generated is unknown to the learner. We are motivated by applications where response varies by individuals and therefore, estimating resp…
Study analyzes non-Markovian effects in financial markets over multiple years.
problem Understanding non-Markovian dynamics and trader interactions in financial markets.
method Empirical analysis of self-response functions and trade sign correlators for different stocks over multiple years.
result Significant variations in traders' interactions over time, indicating changes in market mechanisms.
A new model estimates mixed memberships for categorical data with weighted responses.
problem Limited applicability of existing GoM model to weighted categorical data.
method Proposes Weighted Grade of Membership (WGoM) model, relaxing distribution constraints.
result WGoM can describe any response matrix with finite distinct elements.
How to generate human like response is one of the most challenging tasks for artificial intelligence. In a real application, after reading the same post different people might write responses with positive or negative sentiment according to their own experiences and attitudes. To simulate this procedure, we propose a s…
A new model for latent class analysis with weighted responses.
problem Limitation of latent class model for real-world data with continuous or negative responses.
method Proposed a novel generative model, the weighted latent class model (WLCM).
result The proposed WLCM is more realistic and general than the latent class model.
Enhances preference learning by incorporating response times into binary choices.
problem Limited information from binary choices about preference strength.
method Combines choices and response times using the EZ diffusion model.
result Response times improve utility estimation for strong preferences.
Proposes active learning for meta-learning in graph node response prediction.
problem Difficulty in improving performance with meta-learning due to unbalanced observations.
method Combines graph convolutional neural networks and reinforcement learning for both prediction and node selection.
result Can predict responses and select nodes even for unseen response variables.
Estimating what would be an individual's potential response to varying levels of exposure to a treatment is of high practical relevance for several important fields, such as healthcare, economics and public policy. However, existing methods for learning to estimate counterfactual outcomes from observational data are ei…
The paper enhances preference learning by incorporating response time data.
problem Lack of temporal information in user decision-making for reward model learning.
method Integrates response time alongside binary choice data using the EZ model and Neyman-orthogonal loss functions.
result Response time-augmented approach reduces error rates from exponential to polynomial scaling, improving sample efficiency.