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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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130260389519 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for human decision making

Conformal prediction sets improve human decision making by quantifying model uncertainty.

problem Humans signal uncertainty and offer alternatives when unsure, but machine learning models often lack this feature.
method Conducted a randomized controlled trial with human subjects given conformal prediction sets.
result Human accuracy improves when given conformal prediction sets compared to fixed-size prediction sets.

IDT learns human preferences from uncertain decisions, even when humans are suboptimal.

problem Learning human preferences from uncertain and suboptimal decisions.
method Inverse decision theory (IDT) framework, statistical analysis of IDT, characterizing sample complexity.
result Learning preferences is easier when decisions are more uncertain, even if humans are suboptimal.

When machine predictors can achieve higher performance than the human decision-makers they support, improving the performance of human decision-makers is often conflated with improving machine accuracy. Here we propose a framework to directly support human decision-making, in which the role of machines is to reframe pr…

2019-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

This work advances collaborative decision making by combining human and AI strengths in uncertainty quantification.

problem Current AI lacks robust decision-making capabilities under uncertainty, especially in high-stakes contexts.
method Introduces Human AI Collaborative Uncertainty Quantification (HACUQ) framework, formalizing AI-human collaboration and developing calibration algorithms.
result Optimal collaborative prediction sets follow a two-threshold structure, and online adaptation algorithms can adapt to evolving human behavior.

Explainable AI improves human decision accuracy but does not enhance it significantly.

problem Improving human decision-making through explainable AI.
method Comparing human decision accuracy with and without AI predictions, including or excluding explanations.
result Providing AI predictions improves human decision accuracy, but explanations do not significantly enhance it.

A model for human-machine decision-making with private info and opacity.

problem Optimizing decisions in a human-machine system with private info and opacity.
method Formulated as a two-player learning problem, proved lower and upper bounds on optimality.
result Simple coordination strategy is nearly minimax optimal, efficient learning possible under certain assumptions.

Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, theoretical models of this kind have develop…

2019-05-22abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper tackles AI advice giving by considering adherence levels and defer options.

problem Inadequate consideration of human adherence to AI recommendations.
method Sequential decision-making model that considers adherence levels and incorporates a defer option.
result Specialized learning algorithms provide better convergence and empirical performance.

Optimal allocation of human effort to correct AI assessments in decision-making.

problem How to allocate costly human effort to correct noisy or biased AI-generated assessments.
method Decision-theoretic framework treating AI assessments as signals and human judgments as costly information. Developed estimation procedures under nonparametric and linear models.
result Our approach substantially outperforms LLM-only predictions and achieves performance comparable to full human review while using only 20-30% of the human information.

FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.

problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.

New research shows machine-assisted decisions can still be unfair even when the algorithm is fair.

problem Ensuring fairness in decisions made with machine-assisted human input.
method Formal model and lab experiment to analyze how machine predictions affect human decisions.
result Excluding information about protected groups from machine predictions can increase disparities.

Unified framework for human-like decision making in various sequential tasks.

problem Real-life decision-making involves diverse strategies leading to similar outcomes.
method Two-stream reward processing mechanism for flexible and unified models.
result Framework unified MAB, CB, and RL with comparable performance.

Large-scale public datasets have been shown to benefit research in multiple areas of modern artificial intelligence. For decision-making research that requires human data, high-quality datasets serve as important benchmarks to facilitate the development of new methods by providing a common reproducible standard. Many h…

2019-03-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Study finds users mostly use recent market and decision information to guess market direction.

problem Limited ability to model and predict human decision-making in stock markets.
method Used networks inference with stochastic block models (SBM) to find most predictive model of unobserved decisions.
result Users mostly use recent information to guess market direction, and their decision-making strategies are analogous to behaviors in other contexts.

Quantum mechanics models human perception and decision-making, offering a new approach to understanding social dynamics.

problem Understanding the complex interactions between individuals and groups in social networks.
method Developed a simple computational code based on quantum mechanics principles to model human perception and decision-making.
result Quantum-inspired models can help explain differences in individual and group behavior.

Proposes a new machine learning problem for automated temporal decision-making.

problem Automating human involvement in temporal decision-making processes.
method Develops a deep Bayesian neural network, ForeClassNet, with Boltzmann convolutions.
result Achieves superior performance in real-world Foreclassing datasets.

Framework uses human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.

problem Clarifying human-AI collaboration in prediction and decision tasks.
method Integrates human judgment to distinguish algorithmically indistinguishable cases.
result Improves performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor.

Framework enhances AI explainability by aligning with human cognitive models.

problem Lack of explainability in AI models hinders trust and accountability.
method Integrates explainability techniques with Malle's five category model of behavior explanation.
result Demonstrates practical relevance in credit risk assessment and regulatory analysis.

In this paper the theory of semi-bounded rationality is proposed as an extension of the theory of bounded rationality. In particular, it is proposed that a decision making process involves two components and these are the correlation machine, which estimates missing values, and the causal machine, which relates the cau…

2013-05-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Human decision-making deviates from the optimal solution, that maximizes cumulative rewards, in many situations. Here we approach this discrepancy from the perspective of bounded rationality and our goal is to provide a justification for such seemingly sub-optimal strategies. More specifically we investigate the hypoth…

2019-02-20abs ↗pdf ↗

Framework for responsible LLM deployment with human involvement and decentralized technologies.

problem Challenges in deploying LLMs for high-stakes decisions, including data security and accountability.
method Interactive human involvement through multiple iterations, decentralized technologies, and automated auditing.
result Enhanced security and accountability in LLM deployment for financial decisions.

Paper proposes a new RLHF framework for human preference learning.

problem Handling dependent online human preference outcomes with dynamic contexts.
method Two-stage algorithm with εε-greedy followed by exploitation; anti-concentration inequalities and matrix martingale concentration techniques.
result Our method achieves optimal regret bound and asymptotic normality of estimators.

The paper proposes a method to learn and leverage contextual preference distributions for better decision-making.

problem Heterogeneous and context-dependent human preferences in decision-making problems.
method A sequential learning-and-optimization pipeline using a bounded-variance score function gradient estimator to train a predictive model mapping contextual features to preference distributions.
result The approach reduces average post-decision surprise by up to 25 times compared to risk-averse baselines in a ridesharing environment.

Paper proposes an ensemble approach to improve fairness in classifier decisions.

problem Improving fairness in classifier decisions to prevent bias.
method Inspired by dropout techniques, feature drop-out is used to reduce classifier dependence on sensitive features while maintaining accuracy.
result An ensemble of classifiers with reduced sensitivity to sensitive features and improved accuracy.

Societies often rely on human experts to take a wide variety of decisions affecting their members, from jail-or-release decisions taken by judges and stop-and-frisk decisions taken by police officers to accept-or-reject decisions taken by academics. In this context, each decision is taken by an expert who is typically …

2018-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Subjective expected utility theory assumes that decision-makers possess unlimited computational resources to reason about their choices; however, virtually all decisions in everyday life are made under resource constraints - i.e. decision-makers are bounded in their rationality. Here we experimentally tested the predic…

2016-10-06abs ↗pdf ↗

TRIBE model uses LLMs to simulate human trading behavior in bond markets.

problem Complexities in decentralized bond market transactions.
method Agent-based model augmented with LLMs to simulate human-like decision-making.
result Slight trade aversion in LLMs can lead to complete market collapse.