A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Investment herding can reduce household consumption, a phenomenon called crowding-out effect.
The paper develops a method for forecasting power consumption at various levels of aggregation.
This paper considers an optimal life insurance for a householder subject to mortality risk. The household receives a wage income continuously, which is terminated by unexpected (premature) loss of earning power or (planned and intended) retirement, whichever happens first. In order to hedge the risk of losing income st…
We determine the optimal amount of life insurance for a household of two wage earners. We consider the simple case of exponential utility, thereby removing wealth as a factor in buying life insurance, while retaining the relationship among life insurance, income, and the probability of dying and thus losing that income…
We investigate a multi-household DSGE model in which past aggregate consumption impacts the confidence, and therefore consumption propensity, of individual households. We find that such a minimal setup is extremely rich, and leads to a variety of realistic output dynamics: high output with no crises; high output with i…
Consumer Demand Response (DR) is an important research and industry problem, which seeks to categorize, predict and modify consumer's energy consumption. Unfortunately, traditional clustering methods have resulted in many hundreds of clusters, with a given consumer often associated with several clusters, making it diff…
The accuracy of the household electricity consumption forecast is vital in taking better cost effective and energy efficient decisions. In order to design accurate, proper and efficient forecasting model, characteristics of the series have to been analyzed. The source of time series data comes from Online Enerjisa Syst…
Homeownership boosts wealth and welfare compared to renting, according to new research.
New method for selecting clusters in residential electricity data.
In order to improve the efficiency and sustainability of electricity systems, most countries worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures, and in particular household smart meters, in the residential sector. This technology is able to record electricity load time series at a very high frequency rates, info…
Model shows how confidence feedback can lead to different crisis outcomes.
New method for disaggregate electricity demand forecasting at household level.
We study the Merton problem of optimal consumption-investment for the case of two investors sharing a final wealth. The typical example would be a husband and wife sharing a portfolio looking to optimize the expected utility of consumption and final wealth. Each agent has different utility function and discount factor.…
This thesis tackles NILM challenges with a new dataset and efficient edge deployment techniques.
Paper uses CVAE to simulate tariff impacts on electricity consumption.
Random forests and LASSO methods improve small area estimation using auxiliary data.
Most electricity systems worldwide are deploying advanced metering infrastructures to collect relevant operational data. In particular, smart meters allow tracking electricity load consumption at a very disaggregated level and at high frequency rates. This data opens the possibility of developing new forecasting models…
Distributed estimation and learning with privacy preserved.
The Australian Government uses the means-test as a way of managing the pension budget. Changes in Age Pension policy impose difficulties in retirement modelling due to policy risk, but any major changes tend to be `grandfathered' meaning that current retirees are exempt from the new changes. In 2015, two important chan…
To assess the performance of load disaggregation algorithms it is common practise to train a candidate algorithm on data from one or multiple households and subsequently apply cross-validation by evaluating the classification and energy estimation performance on unseen portions of the dataset derived from the same hous…
This study analyzes how carbon pricing affects credit risk measures in a portfolio.
Study on Spanish households' investment choices in housing, deposits, and stocks.
Energy consumption for hot water production is a major draw in high efficiency buildings. Optimizing this has typically been approached from a thermodynamics perspective, decoupled from occupant influence. Furthermore, optimization usually presupposes existence of a detailed dynamics model for the hot water system. The…
Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM), also known as energy disaggregation, is a blind source separation problem where a household's aggregate electricity consumption is broken down into electricity usages of individual appliances. In this way, the cost and trouble of installing many measurement devices over numerous ho…
Credit expansion led to stronger household leverage cycles during the U.S. business cycle.
Financial planners helped preserve and increase household net financial assets during the Great Recession.
In this article we present an alternative model for the distribution of household incomes in the United States. We provide arguments from two differing perspectives which both yield the proposed income distribution curve, and then fit this curve to empirical data on household income distribution obtained from the Unite…
We describe a method to identify poor households in data-scarce countries by leveraging information contained in nationally representative household surveys. It employs standard statistical learning techniques---cross-validation and parameter regularization---which together reduce the extent to which the model is over-…
We investigate the dynamics of growth models in terms of dynamical system theory. We analyse some forms of knowledge and its influence on economic growth. We assume that the rate of change of knowledge depends on both the rate of change of physical and human capital. First, we study model with constant savings. The mod…
The 1/3 Financial Rule helps prevent household bankruptcy through balanced spending, savings, and debt repayment.
Model analyzes mortgage relief during financial hardship.
Change detection involves segmenting sequential data such that observations in the same segment share some desired properties. Multivariate change detection continues to be a challenging problem due to the variety of ways change points can be correlated across channels and the potentially poor signal-to-noise ratio on …
Develops a two-layer model to design mortgage assistance products.
We consider an individual or household endowed with an initial capital and an income, modeled as a deterministic process with a continuous drift rate. At first, we model the discounting rate as the price of a zero-coupon bond at zero under the assumption of a short rate evolving as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Then, …
This paper investigates and compares currency substitution between the currencies of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro. In addition, we develop a model with microeconomic foundations, which identifies difference between currency substitution and money demand sensitivity to exchange rate variatio…
We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function o…
FedGAN trains GANs across distributed data sources with reduced communication.
A database of objects discovered in houses in the Roman city of Pompeii provides a unique view of ordinary life in an ancient city. Experts have used this collection to study the structure of Roman households, exploring the distribution and variability of tasks in architectural spaces, but such approaches are necessari…
Study analyzes household capital risk and poverty trapping, deriving a new function for capital deficit distribution.
Enhanced deep learning model forecasts household leverage series accurately.
We found a unified formula for description of the household incomes of all society classes, for instance, of those of the European Union in year 2007. This formula is a stationary solution of the threshold Fokker-Planck equation (derived from the threshold nonlinear Langevin one). The formula is more general than the w…
Non-intrusive load monitoring addresses the challenging task of decomposing the aggregate signal of a household's electricity consumption into appliance-level data without installing dedicated meters. By detecting load malfunction and recommending energy reduction programs, cost-effective non-intrusive load monitoring …
Study on stock portfolio concentration among Finnish households and investors.
Intra-household inequality continues to remain a neglected corner despite renewed focus on income and wealth inequality. Using the LIS micro data, we present evidence that this neglect is equivalent to ignoring up to a third of total inequality. For a wide range of countries and over four decades, we show that at least…
Examines how extending home loan durations affects French households financially.
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
We found a unified formula for description of the household incomes of all society classes, for instance, for the European Union in years 2005-2010. The formula is more general than well known that of Yakovenko et al. because, it satisfactorily describes not only the household incomes of low- and medium-income society …
New measure predicts Dutch housing market downturns.