A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
XGBoost outperforms other models in predicting housing prices.
GSNE improves house price predictions by embedding geo-spatial context.
Satellite imagery improves house price prediction models.
In this paper, we use the house price data ranging from January 2004 to October 2016 to predict the average house price of November and December in 2016 for each district in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. We apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to generate the baseline while LSTM networks to…
Spatially weighted conformal prediction improves uncertainty quantification in house price models.
New measure predicts Dutch housing market downturns.
Study shows how algorithmic prediction affects US housing market, reducing racial wealth disparities.
Study finds no consistent return predictability using payout ratios across 16 countries.
Machine learning models predict housing prices using macroeconomic factors.
Modeling house prices in Australia reveals supply limitations as the primary driver of extreme trends.
This paper investigates the risk-return relationship in determination of housing asset pricing. In so doing, the paper evaluates behavioral hypotheses advanced by Case and Shiller (1988, 2002, 2009) in studies of boom and post-boom housing markets. The paper specifies and tests a multi-factor housing asset pricing mode…
This paper explores integration and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. The analysis applies Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price repeat sales indexes from 384 metropolitan areas to estimate a multi-factor model of U.S. housing market integration. It then identifies statistical jumps in metrop…
This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw & Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow…
The real estate market is exposed to many fluctuations in prices because of existing correlations with many variables, some of which cannot be controlled or might even be unknown. Housing prices can increase rapidly (or in some cases, also drop very fast), yet the numerous listings available online where houses are sol…
Singapore's cooling measures did not increase housing wealth overall.
In recent years, real estate industry has captured government and public attention around the world. The factors influencing the prices of real estate are diversified and complex. However, due to the limitations and one-sidedness of their respective views, they did not provide enough theoretical basis for the fluctuati…
Deep Huber QRNs predict Huber quantiles for house prices.
The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global financial tsunami and China's economy has also slowed down by about 2\%-3\% when m…
Housing markets play a crucial role in economies and the collapse of a real-estate bubble usually destabilizes the financial system and causes economic recessions. We investigate the systemic risk and spatiotemporal dynamics of the US housing market (1975-2011) at the state level based on the Random Matrix Theory (RMT)…
The study models mortgage prepayment risk using stochastic housing market activity.
We propose a novel multi-layered nonlinear model that is able to capture and predict the housing-demographic dynamics of the real-state market by simulating the transitions of owners among price-based house layers. This model allows us to determine which parameters are most effective to smoothen the severity of a poten…
I studied the convergence of regional house prices to national prices in USA by analyzing time-series of house price indices of 9 Census Divisions. I found the evidence of the convergence in some parts of the country using asymmetric unit root tests. The fact that the evidence of the convergence is not present in large…
Accurate house prediction is of great significance to various real estate stakeholders such as house owners, buyers, investors, and agents. We propose a location-centered prediction framework that differs from existing work in terms of data profiling and prediction model. Regarding data profiling, we define and capture…
Study shows house buyers in Christchurch value earthquake risk differently based on time since 2011 quake.
The paper introduces mortgage-rate-adjusted home prices to help buyers and adjust housing indices.
Model explains herding and volatility in urban housing prices.
This paper uses alternative data to forecast Japanese real estate performance.
Study shows houses appreciated more during pandemic due to speculation, not just price uncertainty.
Understanding how housing values evolve over time is important to policy makers, consumers and real estate professionals. Existing methods for constructing housing indices are computed at a coarse spatial granularity, such as metropolitan regions, which can mask or distort price dynamics apparent in local markets, such…
In this article, we develop a model for the evolution of real estate prices. A wide range of inputs, including stochastic interest rates and changing demands for the asset, are considered. Maximizing their expected utility, home owners make optimal sale decisions given these changing market conditions. Using these opti…
The paper uses graph learning to detect valid instruments in high-dimensional data for house pricing.
New mortgage contracts reduce underwater default by adjusting loan balances, but must balance prepayment incentives.
The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) from …
Model predicts climate change's impact on real estate prices.
We propose a simple probabilistic model to explain the spatial structure of the rent distribution of housing market in city of Sapporo. Here we modify the mathematical model proposed by Gauvin et. al. Especially, we consider the competition between two distances, namely, the distance between house and center, and the d…
Three years ago we found a statistically reliable link between ConocoPhillips' (NYSE: COP) stock price and the difference between the core and headline CPI in the United States. In this article, the original relationship is revisited with new data available since 2009. The agreement between the observed monthly closing…
Credit expansion led to stronger household leverage cycles during the U.S. business cycle.
This paper analyzes Airbnb listings in the city of San Francisco to better understand how different attributes such as bedrooms, location, house type amongst others can be used to accurately predict the price of a new listing that optimal in terms of the host's profitability yet affordable to their guests. This model i…
Speculative bubbles have been occurring periodically in local or global real estate markets and are considered a potential cause of economic crises. In this context, the detection of explosive behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of critical importance. The recen…
Spatial ABM predicts housing market trends in Sydney.
We develop a pivotal test to assess the statistical significance of the feature variables in a single-layer feedforward neural network regression model. We propose a gradient-based test statistic and study its asymptotics using nonparametric techniques. Under technical conditions, the limiting distribution is given by …
Examines how extending home loan durations affects French households financially.
Unified theory explains housing cycle across metros, showing credit expansion impacts.
Study evaluates and compares traditional and causal machine learning methods for estimating direct price effects of environmental amenities.
The paper refutes standard asset pricing models and introduces new theories.
The paper discusses various practical consequences of treating economics and finance as an inherently dynamic and chaotic system. On the theoretical side this looks at the general applicability of the market-making pricing approach to economics in general. The paper also discuses the consequences of the endogenous crea…
Electricity consumption has increased exponentially during the past few decades. This increase is heavily burdening the electricity distributors. Therefore, predicting the future demand for electricity consumption will provide an upper hand to the electricity distributor. Predicting electricity consumption requires man…
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