arXiv research

The paper optimizes RV estimation by efficient sampling in time-changed diffusion models.

Paper analyzes Hit-and-Run's convergence rates and applies similar methods to randomized Kaczmarz.

Minimal hitting time on origami equals diophantine type for certain slopes.

Large unweighted directed graphs are commonly used to capture relations between entities. A fundamental problem in the analysis of such networks is to properly define the similarity or dissimilarity between any two vertices. Despite the significance of this problem, statistical characterization of the proposed metrics …

Price limit trading rules are adopted in some stock markets (especially emerging markets) trying to cool off traders' short-term trading mania on individual stocks and increase market efficiency. Under such a microstructure, stocks may hit their up-limits and down-limits from time to time. However, the behaviors of pri…

Stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) is a fundamental algorithm in stochastic optimization. Recent work by Zhang et al. [2017] presents an analysis for the hitting time of SGLD for the first and second order stationary points. The proof in Zhang et al. [2017] is a two-stage procedure through bounding the Cheege…

A model for hit song prediction can be used in the pop music industry to identify emerging trends and potential artists or songs before they are marketed to the public. While most previous work formulates hit song prediction as a regression or classification problem, we present in this paper a convolutional neural netw…

Determinantal point processes (DPPs) are distributions over sets of items that model diversity using kernels. Their applications in machine learning include summary extraction and recommendation systems. Yet, the cost of sampling from a DPP is prohibitive in large-scale applications, which has triggered an effort towar…

Gibbs sampler mixes quickly for certain smooth distributions.

When estimating high-frequency covariance (quadratic covariation) of two arbitrary assets observed asynchronously, simple assumptions, such as independence, are usually imposed on the relationship between the prices process and the observation times. In this paper, we introduce a general endogenous two-dimensional nonp…

Model financial default cascades on sparse graphs via hitting times.

Let $(X_t)_{t\ge0}$ be a continuous-time, time-homogeneous strong Markov process with possible jumps and let $τ$ be its first hitting time of a Borel subset of the state space. Suppose $X$ is sampled at random times and suppose also that $X$ has not hit the Borel set by time $t$. What is the intensity process of $τ$ ba…

The paper analyzes McKean-Vlasov equations with hitting times, proving global solvability.

SurvSurf predicts first hitting times for intermittent events without monotonic violations.

In this paper we consider finite volume hyperbolic manifolds X with non-empty totally geodesic boundary. We consider the distribution of the times for the geodesic flow to hit the boundary and derive a formula for the moments of the associated random variable in terms of the orthospectrum. We show that the the first tw…

The paper simulates Lévy processes and their extremum and hitting time.

Holomorphic map connects Hitchin components to character varieties.

Paper introduces efficient methods for probabilistic querying of event sequences.

Faster algorithm for sampling logconcave densities in high dimensions.

This study compares two neural models for financial forecasting, showing their superiority.

In this paper, we investigate the cooling-off effect (opposite to the magnet effect) from two aspects. Firstly, from the viewpoint of dynamics, we study the existence of the cooling-off effect by following the dynamical evolution of some financial variables over a period of time before the stock price hits its limit. S…

Adaptive denoising models adjust the number of steps based on noise level.

In this work, we attempt to solve the Hit Song Science problem, which aims to predict which songs will become chart-topping hits. We constructed a dataset with approximately 1.8 million hit and non-hit songs and extracted their audio features using the Spotify Web API. We test four models on our dataset. Our best model…

We analyze the hitting time distributions of stock price returns in different time windows, characterized by different levels of noise present in the market. The study has been performed on two sets of data from US markets. The first one is composed by daily price of 1071 stocks trade for the 12-year period 1987-1998, …

We empirically investigated the relationships between the degree of efficiency and the predictability in financial time-series data. The Hurst exponent was used as the measurement of the degree of efficiency, and the hit rate calculated from the nearest-neighbor prediction method was used for the prediction of the dire…

Record companies invest billions of dollars in new talent around the globe each year. Gaining insight into what actually makes a hit song would provide tremendous benefits for the music industry. In this research we tackle this question by focussing on the dance hit song classification problem. A database of dance hit …

In this paper, we study the classical problem of the first passage hitting density of an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process. We give two complementary (forward and backward) formulations of this problem and provide semi-analytical solutions for both. The corresponding problems are comparable in complexity. By using the method…

We study the problem of identity testing of markov chains. In this setting, we are given access to a single trajectory from a markov chain with unknown transition matrix $Q$ and the goal is to determine whether $Q = P$ for some known matrix $P$ or $\text{Dist}(P, Q) \geq ε$ where $\text{Dist}$ is suitably defined. In r…

We introduce a simple stochastic volatility model, whose novelty consists in taking into account hitting times of the asset price, and study the optimal stopping problem corresponding to a put option whose time horizon (after the asset price hits a certain level) is exponentially distributed. We obtain explicit optimal…

Paper reconciles different Ricci flow approaches and proves weak solutions.

This paper improves bond market making by adjusting hit-ratios for client flow quality.

In this paper we study the asymptotic decay of finite time ruin probabilities for an insurance company that faces heavy-tailed claims, uses predictable investment strategies and makes investments in risky assets whose prices evolve according to quite general semimartingales. We show that the ruin problem corresponds to…

Generative Adversarial Networks generate PXD background noise efficiently.

A new metric based on hitting probabilities for directed graphs and Markov chains.

Study shows hard sample complexity for learning optimal policies in stochastic shortest path problems.

We consider the exact path sampling of the squared Bessel process and some other continuous-time Markov processes, such as the CIR model, constant elasticity of variance diffusion model, and hypergeometric diffusions, which can all be obtained from a squared Bessel process by using a change of variable, time and scale …

We study the Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) algorithm for non-convex optimization. The algorithm performs stochastic gradient descent, where in each step it injects appropriately scaled Gaussian noise to the update. We analyze the algorithm's hitting time to an arbitrary subset of the parameter space. Two…

Study bond market making with hit-ratio target using optimal control and HJB equations.

Paper proposes methods to localize sources in WSNs without knowing sensor parameters.

New model captures fast price excursions in finance.

The hitting measure is singular and has dimension less than 1 for cocompact Fuchsian groups.

Improved Thompson Sampling outperforms existing Bayesian optimization methods.

Researchers prove hitting measure singularity for most Fuchsian and Kleinian groups.

Research in psychology and neuroscience has successfully modeled decision making as a process of noisy evidence accumulation to a decision bound. While there are several variants and implementations of this idea, the majority of these models make use of a noisy accumulation between two absorbing boundaries. A common as…

The paper improves competitive and dynamic regret bounds for smoothed online learning.

Neural networks designed for the task of classification have become a commodity in recent years. Many works target the development of more effective networks, which results in a complexification of their architectures with more layers, multiple sub-networks, or even the combination of multiple classifiers, but this oft…

New algorithm for average reward learning with bounded hitting time assumption.

Paper investigates separating times for general diffusions, providing new insights.