Econophysics embodies the recent upsurge of interest by physicists into financial economics, driven by the availability of large amount of data, job shortage in physics and the possibility of applying many-body techniques developed in statistical and theoretical physics to the understanding of the self-organizing econo…
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48 results for “historical perspective”
Surveying nonparametric inference with shape constraints, past and future.
problem Statistical inference under shape constraints.
method Historical overview and future directions.
result Outlook on future research directions.
Machine fairness is impossible to achieve fully due to historical biases.
problem Machine learning models inherit biases from historical data, making it impossible to satisfy fairness metrics simultaneously.
method Presented a causal perspective to the impossibility theorem of fairness.
result It is impossible to satisfy fairness metrics like demographic parity, equal opportunity, and equalized odds simultaneously.
Socio-economic inequalities are manifested in different aspects of our social life. We discuss various aspects, beginning with the evolutionary and historical origins, and discussing the major issues from the social and economic point of view. The subject has attracted scholars from across various disciplines, includin…
Knot Theory is currently a very broad field. Even a long survey can only cover a narrow area. Here we concentrate on the path from Goeritz matrices to quasi-alternating links. On the way, we often stray from the main road and tell related stories, especially if they allow as to place the main topic in a historical cont…
Crashes : symptoms, diagnoses and remediescond-mat.stat-mech
A brief historical perspective is first given concerning financial crashes, - from the 17th till the 20th century. In modern times, it seems that log periodic oscillations are found before crashes in several financial indices. The same is found in sand pile avalanches on Sierpinski gaskets. A discussion pertains to the…
Notes on angles and solid angles, in relation with Euler's memoir De mensura angulorum solidorummath.GT
This paper explores historical and philosophical aspects of angles and solid angles, inspired by Euler's work.
problem Understanding the historical context and philosophical implications of angles and solid angles.
method Historical review and analysis of mathematical and philosophical works.
result Questions raised by Euler about angles and solid angles are timeless and relevant to modern mathematics.
NeuTSFlow models continuous functions behind time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting treats time series as discrete sequences, ignoring their continuous nature.
method NeuTSFlow uses Neural Operators to learn the transition between historical and future function families.
result NeuTSFlow outperforms traditional methods in forecasting accuracy and robustness.
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
Residual networks' depth is mathematically equivalent to expanding an implicit ensemble size.
problem Understanding why deep residual networks are effective.
method Formal analysis of residual networks as ensembles of shallow models.
result Increasing network depth is equivalent to expanding the size of an implicit ensemble, revealing a hierarchical structure.
PC4 at Age 40math.GT
Author discusses the Poincaré conjecture from 40 years ago.
problem Discussing the Poincaré conjecture from a historical perspective.
method Personal recollections and anecdotes.
result Memories of the Poincaré conjecture are vivid and detailed.
We explore two techniques which use color to make sense of statistical text models. One method uses in-text annotations to illustrate a model's view of particular tokens in particular documents. Another uses a high-level, "words-as-pixels" graphic to display an entire corpus. Together, these methods offer both zoomed-i…
The literature on optimal reinsurance does not deal with how much the effectiveness of such solutions is degraded by errors in parameters and models. The issue is investigated through both asymptotics and numerical studies. It is shown that the rate of degradation is often as the sample size of historical …
The Widrow-Hoff rule simplifies language data simulation.
problem Simulating language phenomena computationally.
method Implementation and application of the Widrow-Hoff rule.
result The Widrow-Hoff rule offers new perspectives on language simulation.
The goal of this paper is to offer a comprehensive exposition of the current knowledge about Heegaard splittings of exteriors of knots in the 3-sphere. The exposition is done with a historical perspective as to how ideas developed and by whom. Several new notions are introduced and some facts about them are proved. In …
Analyzes multi-day stock returns, showing linear volatility and mean dependence.
problem Linear dependence of volatility and mean in accumulated stock returns.
method Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution analysis.
result Linear dependence of volatility and mean on the number of days of accumulation.
Simplifies forecast combination by using diversity of out-of-sample forecasts.
problem Estimating optimal weights for forecast combinations is challenging.
method Use out-of-sample forecasts to extract features and calculate weights for forecast combination.
result Achieves superior forecasting performance in point forecasts and prediction intervals.
This paper is base on talks which I gave in May, 2010 at Workshop in Trieste (ICTP). In the first part we present an introduction to knots and knot theory from an historical perspective, starting from Summerian knots and ending on Fox 3-coloring. We show also a relation between 3-colorings and the Jones polynomial. In …
GARCH-UGH improves VaR estimation for financial risk management.
problem Dynamic estimation of extreme VaR in financial time series.
method AR-GARCH filtering followed by a bias-reduced extreme value estimator.
result GARCH-UGH estimates are more accurate than conventional methods.
Counterfactual learning from human bandit feedback describes a scenario where user feedback on the quality of outputs of a historic system is logged and used to improve a target system. We show how to apply this learning framework to neural semantic parsing. From a machine learning perspective, the key challenge lies i…
Database theory and database practice are typically the domain of computer scientists who adopt what may be termed an algorithmic perspective on their data. This perspective is very different than the more statistical perspective adopted by statisticians, scientific computers, machine learners, and other who work on wh…
fairmodels tool detects and mitigates bias in machine learning models.
problem Bias in machine learning models leading to discrimination.
method Model-agnostic approach to bias detection, visualization, and mitigation.
result Validates fairness and eliminates bias in classification models.
Unified HS and related methods with explicit modeling assumptions.
problem Lack of clear assumptions in HS methods for Value-at-Risk.
method Explicitly defined parametric model for asset returns and extraction of innovation process.
result HS and related methods require more assumptions than commonly acknowledged.
Discriminative clustering uses mutual information to cluster data.
problem Clustering data into cohesive groups.
method Discriminative clustering using mutual information.
result Mutual information has been a cornerstone of discriminative clustering.
We study a series of static and dynamic portfolios of VIX futures and their effectiveness to track the VIX index. We derive each portfolio using optimization methods, and evaluate its tracking performance from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. Among our results, we show that static portfolios of different VI…
We introduce blockchains and distributed ledgers and describe their potential applications to money and banking. The analysis compares public and private ledgers and outlines the suitability of various types of ledgers for different purposes. Furthermore, a few historical prototypes of blockchains and distributed ledge…
Conservation Laws and Stress-energy-momentum Tensors for Systems with Background Fieldsphysics.class-ph
This article attempts to delineate the roles played by non-dynamical background structures and Killing symmetries in the construction of stress-energy-momentum tensors generated from a diffeomorphism invariant action density. An intrinsic coordinate independent approach puts into perspective a number of spurious argume…
The link between different psychophysiological measures during emotion episodes is not well understood. To analyse the functional relationship between electroencephalography (EEG) and facial electromyography (EMG), we apply historical function-on-function regression models to EEG and EMG data that were simultaneously r…
ArtificialReplay improves data efficiency in bandits using historical data.
problem Data inefficiency in warm-starting bandit algorithms.
method ArtificialReplay, a meta-algorithm for incorporating historical data into any bandit algorithm.
result ArtificialReplay uses only a fraction of historical data compared to a full warm-start approach, achieving identical regret.
Serendipity and strategy in rapid innovationphysics.soc-ph
Innovation is to organizations what evolution is to organisms: it is how organisations adapt to changes in the environment and improve. Governments, institutions and firms that innovate are more likely to prosper and stand the test of time; those that fail to do so fall behind their competitors and succumb to market an…
Analogical Deep Research: Retrieving and Integrating Historical Analogies for Foresight Analysiscs.CL
ADR helps LLMs find and use historical analogies for foresight analysis.
problem LLMs struggle to find relevant historical analogies due to surface-level matching.
method Proposes CANA framework with mechanism alignment and cross-analogy confirmation.
result CANA improves historical analogy generation by up to 10%.
Genealogy research is the study of family history using available resources such as historical records. Ancestry provides its customers with one of the world's largest online genealogical index with billions of records from a wide range of sources, including vital records such as birth and death certificates, census re…
Proposes dynamic borrowing method for historical data in clinical trials.
problem Insufficient statistical power in rare and pediatric disease clinical trials.
method Dynamic borrowing method based on frequentist approach using similarity measures.
result Demonstrates usefulness of dynamic borrowing in reanalyzing clinical trial data.
We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling with time of the probability density of their aggregates. In its simplest versi…
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …
This study reviews techniques to estimate volatility and price Variance Swaps.
problem Estimating historical volatility and pricing Variance Swaps.
method Review of existing techniques.
result Discussion of various methods to estimate volatility and price Variance Swaps.
Study shows effectiveness of offline RL in online RL tasks.
problem Improving online RL efficiency using offline RL data.
method Formalized framework for incorporating offline RL as online RL subroutines, introducing techniques to enhance effectiveness.
result Effectiveness of the framework depends on task nature, techniques greatly enhance effectiveness, and existing methods are ineffective.
Mechanisms of information communication and market price movements. The case of SP 500 marketq-fin.ST
The paper analyzes how market prices respond to information processing and non-linear dynamics.
problem Understanding how market prices change in response to information.
method Logistic Continuous Wavelet Transformation method applied to SP 500 market data.
result Identifies patterns in market dynamics and describes them using a new theory of reflexive communication.
New PDEs of mixed type emerge in fluid mechanics and geometry.
problem Analysis of nonlinear PDEs of mixed type.
method Through historical problems and recent trends.
result Many PDEs are of mixed type, requiring new analysis.
Study compares deep learning stock trading strategies in adverse market conditions.
problem Comparing deep learning models for stock trading performance in extreme market downturns.
method Reconstructed three deep learning models and compared their strategies through trading simulations.
result Deep learning models, especially LSTM, can mitigate losses in severe market downturns.
Improved Bayesian inference using power priors with historical data.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with historical data.
method Generalized power priors that adapt to the parameter of Amari's -divergence.
result Improved performance through appropriate choices of the parameter.
Markov models lie at the interface between statistical independence in a probability distribution and graph separation properties. We review model selection and estimation in directed and undirected Markov models with Gaussian parametrization, emphasizing the main similarities and differences. These two model classes a…
The application of deep learning to search ranking was one of the most impactful product improvements at Airbnb. But what comes next after you launch a deep learning model? In this paper we describe the journey beyond, discussing what we refer to as the ABCs of improving search: A for architecture, B for bias and C for…
Ultrafast Extreme Events: Empirical Analysis of Mechanisms and Recovery in a Historical Perspectiveq-fin.TR
Empirical study on UEEs reveals liquidity's role and universal recovery patterns.
problem Understanding and stabilizing financial markets affected by UEEs.
method Comparative analysis of UEEs over different years in US stock market.
result Liquidity is dominant in UEEs emergence and recovery patterns are universal.
Methodology to analyze traffic accidents using microscopic models.
problem Understanding and predicting traffic accidents and their impact.
method Developed a statistical approach using microscopic traffic models and SUMO.
result Approximate distribution of total losses as a mean-variance mixture.
Agent-based Models of Financial Marketsphysics.soc-ph
This review deals with several microscopic (``agent-based'') models of financial markets which have been studied by economists and physicists over the last decade: Kim-Markowitz, Levy-Levy-Solomon, Cont-Bouchaud, Solomon-Weisbuch, Lux-Marchesi, Donangelo-Sneppen and Solomon-Levy-Huang. After an overview of simulation a…
Combines experimental and historical data for robust policy evaluation.
problem Policy evaluation with mixed data sources, especially experimental vs historical.
method Linear integration of estimators from experimental and historical data, optimized for MSE minimization.
result Proposed estimators outperform traditional methods in ridesharing company data.
In this paper we look at the efficacy of different risk measures on energy markets and across several different stock market indices. We use both the Value at Risk and the Tail Conditional Expectation on each of these data sets. We also consider several different durations and levels for historical risk measures. Throu…