Industry datasets used for text classification are rarely created for that purpose. In most cases, the data and target predictions are a by-product of accumulated historical data, typically fraught with noise, present in both the text-based document, as well as in the targeted labels. In this work, we address the quest…
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48 results for “historical performance”
Proposes dynamic borrowing method for historical data in clinical trials.
problem Insufficient statistical power in rare and pediatric disease clinical trials.
method Dynamic borrowing method based on frequentist approach using similarity measures.
result Demonstrates usefulness of dynamic borrowing in reanalyzing clinical trial data.
Contextualizing financial news improves stock price predictions.
problem Predicting stock prices from financial news requires understanding historical context.
method Proposed a method using a large language model for main articles and a small model for historical context.
result Historical context significantly improves model performance across methods and time horizons.
A new GNN model predicts stock trends by learning historical and future correlations.
problem Limited improvement in stock trend prediction models due to ignoring future patterns.
method DishFT-GNN framework that trains a teacher and student model to capture historical and future data correlations.
result State-of-the-art performance on real-world datasets.
Improved Bayesian inference using power priors with historical data.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with historical data.
method Generalized power priors that adapt to the parameter of Amari's -divergence.
result Improved performance through appropriate choices of the parameter.
Combines experimental and historical data for robust policy evaluation.
problem Policy evaluation with mixed data sources, especially experimental vs historical.
method Linear integration of estimators from experimental and historical data, optimized for MSE minimization.
result Proposed estimators outperform traditional methods in ridesharing company data.
Study refines trend-following strategy to improve adaptability.
problem Challenges in practical implementation of historical trend-following strategies.
method Modifications to historical strategy, including T-bills exclusion, alternative allocations, industry exclusions, momentum signals, and Walk-Forward Analysis.
result Persistent challenges in adapting historical strategies to modern markets.
DBNs improve VaR forecasting compared to traditional models, but SVaR forecasts are conservative.
problem Forecasting VaR and SVaR using dynamic Bayesian networks.
method DBN framework applied to S&P 500 index returns, comparing to autoregressive models and historical simulation.
result DBNs achieve comparable VaR forecasting accuracy to historical simulation models, but SVaR forecasts remain conservative.
New algorithm reduces online learning regret by exploiting historical invariances.
problem Stochastic non-stationary linear bandits with changing reward models.
method ISD-linUCB algorithm that learns invariances in reward model.
result Significant regret improvements in fast-changing environments with historical data.
The paper proposes an asset allocation strategy using the Sortino ratio for better performance.
problem Traditional asset allocation methods like the Sharpe ratio do not penalize negative returns adequately.
method The Sortino ratio is used to maximize asset allocation, penalizing only negative return variances.
result The Sortino ratio-based strategy outperforms traditional methods like the Kelly criterion.
Study compares VaR models and finds GARCH-FHS superior.
problem Comparing VaR models for accurate risk assessment.
method Historical Simulation, GARCH-N, GARCH-FHS models evaluated.
result GARCH-FHS provides superior performance in capturing tail risks.
Valuation of Music Catalogsq-fin.PR
The study uses historical revenue data to forecast music catalog cashflows and multipliers.
problem Valuation of music catalogs based on historical revenue data.
method Risk-neutral approach using discounted cashflows formula.
result Ask prices are close to multipliers justified by median song cashflows, while best bids are near multipliers justified by bottom decile cashflows.
Machine Learning for Yield Curve Feature Extraction: Application to Illiquid Corporate Bondsq-fin.ST
This paper studies an application of machine learning in extracting features from the historical market implied corporate bond yields. We consider an example of a hypothetical illiquid fixed income market. After choosing a surrogate liquid market, we apply the Denoising Autoencoder (DAE) algorithm to learn the features…
It is well known that the historical logs are used for evaluating and learning policies in interactive systems, e.g. recommendation, search, and online advertising. Since direct online policy learning usually harms user experiences, it is more crucial to apply off-policy learning in real-world applications instead. Tho…
Unified HS and related methods with explicit modeling assumptions.
problem Lack of clear assumptions in HS methods for Value-at-Risk.
method Explicitly defined parametric model for asset returns and extraction of innovation process.
result HS and related methods require more assumptions than commonly acknowledged.
LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
problem Behavioral biases in LLMs' stock return forecasts.
method Comparison of LLM forecasts with crowd-sourced estimates and historical data.
result LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
RL improves market making with historical data time travel.
problem Limited ability to simulate and fully appraise the impact of actions in competitive systems.
method Introduces 'consistent data time travel' to adjust historical data time index.
result Significant improvement in agent's gain with data time travel.
New method forecasts workforce reintegration success rates.
problem Estimating success of reskilling programs in changing labor markets.
method Uses current workforce demand and supply factors, not historical data.
result Average error of 3.9% compared to 5.4% for best benchmark.
Study on newsvendor problem with censored data, showing how much information is lost.
problem Minimizing costs in a newsvendor problem with limited historical demand data.
method Distributionally robust optimization framework, evaluating policies based on worst-case regret.
result Characterization of information loss due to demand censoring and development of a robust algorithm.
The link between different psychophysiological measures during emotion episodes is not well understood. To analyse the functional relationship between electroencephalography (EEG) and facial electromyography (EMG), we apply historical function-on-function regression models to EEG and EMG data that were simultaneously r…
Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate three information sources. In GARCH-Itô-OI model, we assume that the option-implied…
Survivorship Bias in Emerging Market Small-Cap Indices: Evidence from India's NIFTY Smallcap 250q-fin.ST
Study shows survivorship bias inflates returns in India's small-cap index.
problem Survivorship bias in emerging market small-cap indices.
method Reconstructing historical index composition through market capitalization ranking and comparing equal-weight portfolios of current constituents versus all historical members.
result Survivor-only backtesting overstates returns by 4.94 percentage points and Sharpe ratios by 0.097.
EHNA learns node embeddings from historical network neighborhoods.
problem Capturing temporal information in evolving networks.
method Temporal random walk and deep learning model with attention mechanism.
result EHNA outperforms existing methods in network reconstruction and link prediction tasks.
ArtificialReplay improves data efficiency in bandits using historical data.
problem Data inefficiency in warm-starting bandit algorithms.
method ArtificialReplay, a meta-algorithm for incorporating historical data into any bandit algorithm.
result ArtificialReplay uses only a fraction of historical data compared to a full warm-start approach, achieving identical regret.
This research predicts stock market movements using Vision-Language models.
problem Predicting future stock market direction using historical data.
method Utilizing image and byte-based representations of stock data processed with Vision-Language models.
result The proposed approach significantly outperforms deep learning baselines.
Analogical Deep Research: Retrieving and Integrating Historical Analogies for Foresight Analysiscs.CL
ADR helps LLMs find and use historical analogies for foresight analysis.
problem LLMs struggle to find relevant historical analogies due to surface-level matching.
method Proposes CANA framework with mechanism alignment and cross-analogy confirmation.
result CANA improves historical analogy generation by up to 10%.
Deep Generative Modeling for Financial Time Series with Application in VaR: A Comparative Reviewq-fin.CP
This paper reviews and compares deep generative models for financial time series and VaR.
problem Forecasting risk factor distribution in financial markets.
method Apply multiple deep generative models (CGAN, CWGAN, Diffusion, Signature WGAN) and propose new methods for conditional time series generation.
result Top performing models are Historical Simulation, GARCH, and CWGAN.
Twitter has been proven to be a notable source for predictive modelling on various domains such as the stock market, the dissemination of diseases or sports outcomes. However, such a study has not been conducted in football (soccer) so far. The purpose of this research was to study whether data mined from Twitter can b…
Improves RL from historical data by stitching trajectories.
problem Lack of high-quality data for offline RL.
method Trajectory Stitching (TS) to augment historical data with synthetic actions.
result Improves RL policy performance over baseline.
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …
Optimal data-driven formulations are found for learning and decision-making with historical data.
problem Designing optimal learning and decision-making formulations from historical data.
method Define a yardstick for measuring formulation quality, then construct an optimal formulation that is uniformly closer to the true cost.
result Existence of three distinct out-of-sample performance regimes with corresponding optimal formulations.
This study reviews techniques to estimate volatility and price Variance Swaps.
problem Estimating historical volatility and pricing Variance Swaps.
method Review of existing techniques.
result Discussion of various methods to estimate volatility and price Variance Swaps.
Proposes a multi-modal attention network for better stock price prediction.
problem Predicting future stock movements using historical records and social media.
method Extracts semantic information from social media, estimates credibility, and integrates with numeric features.
result Significantly improved prediction accuracy and trading profits compared to previous methods.
New algorithm combines new and historical data with different input dimensions for linear regression.
problem Combining new and historical data with different input dimensions for improved accuracy.
method Proposes a transfer learning algorithm with rigorous theoretical robustness analysis.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on 9 real-life datasets.
This study evaluates the performances of CNN and LSTM for recognizing common charts patterns in a stock historical data. It presents two common patterns, the method used to build the training set, the neural networks architectures and the accuracies obtained.
Novel method reconstructs liquidity data for CLMMs, optimizing dynamic liquidity strategies.
problem Challenges in evaluating and optimizing CLMMs due to lack of historical liquidity data.
method Reconstructs historical liquidity states from swap transaction data using machine learning.
result Identifies outperformance of dynamic liquidity strategies over uniform allocation benchmarks.
The Local Volatility model is a well-known extension of the Black-Scholes constant volatility model whereby the volatility is dependent on both time and the underlying asset. This model can be calibrated to provide a perfect fit to a wide range of implied volatility surfaces. The model is easy to calibrate and still ve…
FiLM improves deep learning for long-term time series forecasting.
problem Preserving historical information without overfitting noise.
method Applies Legendre Polynomials and Fourier projections, adds low-rank approximation.
result Significantly improves multivariate and univariate forecasting accuracy.
Bayesian meta-learning predicts Alzheimer's disease progression.
problem Predicting individual Alzheimer's disease progression from limited data.
method Bayesian meta-learning approach that dynamically predicts disease score distributions.
result Bayesian meta-learner outperforms single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, especially for long-term predictions.
Bayesian framework improves variance component estimation in MET data.
problem Inaccurate estimation of variance components in MET data.
method Proposes a Bayesian updating framework using historical data.
result Stabilizes variance component estimation and quantifies uncertainty.
Nostradamus: Weathering Worthq-fin.ST
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
problem Understanding the impact of climate on stock prices.
method Analyzing historical data, climate indicators, and natural disasters.
result Significant correlation between climate and stock price fluctuations.
Effectiveness of Artificial Intelligence in Stock Market Prediction based on Machine Learningq-fin.ST
AI models predict stock trends using historical data and public sentiment.
problem Improving stock market prediction accuracy using AI.
method Employed regression and classification ML algorithms for technical and fundamental analysis respectively.
result Median performance suggests AI is not yet superior to stock markets.
New trading strategy uses deep neural networks for future stock price predictions.
problem Traditional backtesting of trading strategies is unreliable for future trades.
method Developed a deep neural network to predict stock prices and select optimal trading strategies.
result Neural network predictions improve trading performance metrics.
This paper studies the application of machine learning in extracting the market implied features from historical risk neutral corporate bond yields. We consider the example of a hypothetical illiquid fixed income market. After choosing a surrogate liquid market, we apply the Denoising Autoencoder algorithm from the fie…
Enhancing Stock Market Prediction with Extended Coupled Hidden Markov Model over Multi-Sourced Dataq-fin.ST
Traditional stock market prediction methods commonly only utilize the historical trading data, ignoring the fact that stock market fluctuations can be impacted by various other information sources such as stock related events. Although some recent works propose event-driven prediction approaches by considering the even…
With the industry trend of shifting from a traditional hierarchical approach to flatter management structure, crowdsourced performance assessment gained mainstream popularity. One fundamental challenge of crowdsourced performance assessment is the risks that personal interest can introduce distortions of facts, especia…
In this paper we look at the efficacy of different risk measures on energy markets and across several different stock market indices. We use both the Value at Risk and the Tail Conditional Expectation on each of these data sets. We also consider several different durations and levels for historical risk measures. Throu…
Machine learning (ML) can automate decision-making by learning to predict decisions from historical data. However, these predictors may inherit discriminatory policies from past decisions and reproduce unfair decisions. In this paper, we propose two algorithms that adjust fitted ML predictors to make them fair. We focu…