In this study, we present a simple stochastic order-book model for investors' swarm behaviors seen in the continuous double auction mechanism, which is employed by major global exchanges. Our study shows a characteristic called "fat tail" is seen in the data obtained from our model that incorporates the investors' swar…
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
169,341 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “historical behaviors”
LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
problem Behavioral biases in LLMs' stock return forecasts.
method Comparison of LLM forecasts with crowd-sourced estimates and historical data.
result LLMs overestimate stock returns and are less accurate at predicting extreme outcomes.
Improved Bayesian inference using power priors with historical data.
problem Improving Bayesian inference with historical data.
method Generalized power priors that adapt to the parameter of Amari's -divergence.
result Improved performance through appropriate choices of the parameter.
Paper identifies bias and strategic behavior in crowdsourced performance assessments.
problem Crowdsourced performance assessment risks personal interest introducing distortions.
method Developed a method to identify bias and strategic behavior using a rich dataset.
result Discovers a pattern of 'discriminatory generosity' in peer evaluation.
Combines historical and market data for better portfolio selection.
problem Improving portfolio selection through diverse information integration.
method Bayesian learning via Gaussian mixture model to harmonize historical and market data.
result The method enhances forecasting accuracy and robustness across various capital markets.
Contextualizing financial news improves stock price predictions.
problem Predicting stock prices from financial news requires understanding historical context.
method Proposed a method using a large language model for main articles and a small model for historical context.
result Historical context significantly improves model performance across methods and time horizons.
Fictitious GAN improves GAN training by using historical models.
problem GAN training issues like convergence problems.
method Fictitious play learning process applied to GANs, updating neural networks using historical models.
result Fictitious GAN resolves convergence issues and ensures generator outputs match data distribution.
Study compares VaR models and finds GARCH-FHS superior.
problem Comparing VaR models for accurate risk assessment.
method Historical Simulation, GARCH-N, GARCH-FHS models evaluated.
result GARCH-FHS provides superior performance in capturing tail risks.
Model predicts OTC dealers' trading behavior using historical data.
problem Predicting the trading decisions of OTC dealers for US corporate bonds.
method Applied machine learning methods, including neural networks and clustering.
result PPRZ Transformer model outperforms other models in predicting dealer behavior.
New distribution resolves excess volatility puzzle in finance.
problem Excess volatility in equity prices not explained by rational finance theory.
method Empirical analysis of historical returns using a new distribution.
result Volatility puzzle disappears when using a more appropriate return distribution.
We study historical dynamics of joint equilibrium distribution of stock returns in the U.S. stock market using the Boltzmann distribution model being parametrized by external fields and pairwise couplings. Within Boltzmann learning framework for statistical inference, we analyze historical behavior of the parameters in…
Proposes a new model to predict click-through rates by learning user interests.
problem Difficulty in capturing diverse user interests from historical behaviors.
method Introduces a local activation unit to adaptively learn user interests from historical behaviors for each ad.
result Improves model's expressive ability by varying representation vectors over different ads.
Prospect theory is widely viewed as the best available descriptive model of how people evaluate risk in experimental settings. According to prospect theory, people are risk-averse with respect to gains and risk-seeking with respect to losses, a phenomenon called "loss aversion". Despite of the fact that prospect theory…
Improves RL from historical data by stitching trajectories.
problem Lack of high-quality data for offline RL.
method Trajectory Stitching (TS) to augment historical data with synthetic actions.
result Improves RL policy performance over baseline.
Paper proposes a new method to simulate realistic markets from data.
problem Lack of accurate market simulators leading to misleading conclusions.
method Proposes a world agent model trained on historical data without agent calibration.
result Models consistently outperform previous methods in realism and responsiveness.
The mechanism of double exponential growth in hyper-inflationcond-mat.stat-mech
Analyzing historical data of price indices we find an extraordinary growth phenomenon in several examples of hyper-inflation in which price changes are approximated nicely by double-exponential functions of time. In order to explain such behavior we introduce the general coarse-graining technique in physics, the Monte …
Regularized Adversarial Sampling and Deep Time-aware Attention for Click-Through Rate Predictioncs.LG
Proposes a time-aware attention model for CTR prediction.
problem Lack of temporal signals in existing CTR prediction models.
method Time-aware attention model with absolute and relative temporal signals, regularized adversarial sampling.
result Significantly improves CTR prediction performance.
Study finds short-term instability in financial ARCH models.
problem Short-term stability of financial ARCH models.
method Analyzes quadratic ARCH processes using historical data and empirical innovations.
result Empirical innovations have variance significantly above 1, indicating short-term instability.
We compare observed corporate cumulative default probabilities to those calculated using a stochastic model based on an extension of the work of Black and Cox and find that corporations default as if via diffusive dynamics. The model, based on a contingent-claims analysis of corporate capital structure, is easily calib…
Proposes DTS framework to predict CTR by tracking user interest evolution over time.
problem Predicting CTR by ignoring dynamic user interest changes over time.
method Integrates time information using ODEs in a neural network to model interest evolution.
result Achieves superior CTR prediction performance compared to existing methods.
Study examines retailer responses to stockouts in wholesale environments.
problem Effect of stockouts on future demand in wholesale settings.
method Statistical analysis of historical customer order and delivery data over 4 years.
result Stockouts negatively impact future demand frequency but not value, with effects being short-term.
The paper proposes a method to identify high-quality financial patterns using entropy.
problem Extracting reliable short-term patterns from noisy financial data.
method Entropy-assisted framework for clustering and pruning patterns.
result High-quality patterns with low local entropy and historical profitability.
KFAtt improves CTR prediction by modeling user behavior with Kalman filtering attention.
problem Improving CTR prediction in personalized e-commerce search engines.
method KFAtt combines Kalman filtering with attention mechanisms to model user behavior.
result KFAtt outperforms existing methods in CTR prediction, achieving better performance in both offline and online settings.
Machine learning identifies types of alterations in historical manuscripts.
problem Understanding and categorizing alterations in historical manuscripts.
method Alteration Latent Dirichlet Allocation (alterLDA) model.
result High performance in recognizing alterations on labelled data, and interesting insights on unlabelled data.
Paper tackles rough volatility estimation from high-frequency data.
problem Estimating historical volatility from high-frequency asset price data.
method Uses fractional Brownian motion representation and particle methods for filtering and parameter estimation.
result Demonstrates efficient estimation of rough volatility using standard techniques.
Paper models market dynamics using bull and bear forces.
problem Complex market dynamics influenced by biases and narratives.
method Bias to Behavior from Bull-Bear Dynamics (B4) model.
result Model predicts market trends with superior performance and interpretable insights.
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it to estimate the joint degree of market efficiency in the sense of Fama (1970, 1…
Study efficient sequential evaluation of large language models using historical data.
problem Sequentially evaluate a new large language model (LLM) on a fixed question set.
method Construct a confidence sequence (CS) and design active querying rules to shrink CS width.
result Simple uniform sampling can sometimes outperform adaptive querying rules.
Agent-based models now use data-driven parameters to explain financial market dynamics.
problem Understanding the complex behavior of financial markets through agent interactions.
method Data-driven approach to model parameters, combining big data with agent-based modeling.
result Agent-based models can now simulate financial market dynamics using real data.
This paper suggests claim history will be deprecated in future auto insurance rates.
problem The role of historical claim records in auto insurance rates.
method Proposes a new risk variable elimination method and real-time road risk model design.
result Claim history will be considered a 'noise' factor and deprecated in Pay-How-You-Drive models.
Pretrained LLM Adapted with LoRA as a Decision Transformer for Offline RL in Quantitative Tradingq-fin.CP
Pre-trained LLM adapted with LoRA improves offline RL for quantitative trading.
problem Challenges in offline RL for quantitative trading due to complex temporal dependencies and overfitting.
method Integrates pre-trained GPT-2 weights and LoRA for efficient fine-tuning of a Decision Transformer.
result Outperforms existing offline RL methods in certain trading scenarios.
The paper predicts human-like driving behavior of other vehicles for safer AVs.
problem Safe and efficient interaction of AVs with other vehicles.
method Hierarchical inverse reinforcement learning considering both discrete and continuous decisions.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts both discrete and continuous driving behaviors.
FinHEAR: Human Expertise and Adaptive Risk-Aware Temporal Reasoning for Financial Decision-Makingcs.LG
FinHEAR combines LLMs with human expertise for better financial decision-making.
problem Challenges in financial decision-making for language models.
method Multi-agent framework with specialized LLMs for historical analysis, event interpretation, and expert retrieval.
result FinHEAR outperforms baselines in financial tasks with higher accuracy and risk-adjusted returns.
DMGE learns cross-domain user behavior embeddings using multi-graphs and GNNs.
problem Data sparsity in learning large-scale item embedding from individual domain data.
method Construct multi-graphs from users' behaviors across domains, use multi-graph neural networks to learn cross-domain representation.
result DMGE outperforms state-of-the-art embedding methods in various tasks.
Unified HS and related methods with explicit modeling assumptions.
problem Lack of clear assumptions in HS methods for Value-at-Risk.
method Explicitly defined parametric model for asset returns and extraction of innovation process.
result HS and related methods require more assumptions than commonly acknowledged.
We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock pr…
Study improves off-policy evaluation from non-i.i.d. bandit samples.
problem Improving off-policy evaluation from non-independent bandit samples.
method Constructing an estimator from a standardized martingale difference sequence.
result Proposed estimator performs better than existing methods.
AI2V learns user representations by focusing on recent interests.
problem User interests and behavior change over time, affecting recommendation quality.
method Introduces AI2V, a neural attentive model that learns user representations by focusing on recent interests.
result AI2V outperforms other models on various datasets.
A new data-driven model forecasts electricity prices efficiently.
problem Forecasting electricity prices using traditional methods.
method Integrates data-driven and fundamental models, learns from historical data.
result Significantly improves forecasting accuracy compared to existing models.
Study of historic stock returns distributions, highlighting asymmetry and outliers.
problem Understanding the asymmetry in accumulated gains and losses in stock returns over time.
method Analyzing decades-long historic distributions of S&P500 returns, comparing gains and losses, using statistical U-tests and fitting log-log scale linearly.
result The mean of de-trended distributions increases linearly with the number of days of accumulation, and the overall skew is negative, indicating heavier tails of losses.
ArtificialReplay improves data efficiency in bandits using historical data.
problem Data inefficiency in warm-starting bandit algorithms.
method ArtificialReplay, a meta-algorithm for incorporating historical data into any bandit algorithm.
result ArtificialReplay uses only a fraction of historical data compared to a full warm-start approach, achieving identical regret.
Analogical Deep Research: Retrieving and Integrating Historical Analogies for Foresight Analysiscs.CL
ADR helps LLMs find and use historical analogies for foresight analysis.
problem LLMs struggle to find relevant historical analogies due to surface-level matching.
method Proposes CANA framework with mechanism alignment and cross-analogy confirmation.
result CANA improves historical analogy generation by up to 10%.
Boosts models to detect synchronisation between EEG and EMG data.
problem Understanding the functional relationship between EEG and EMG during emotion episodes.
method Applied historical function-on-function regression models with gradient boosting algorithm.
result Improved models for detecting synchronisation in bioelectrical signals.
Proposes dynamic borrowing method for historical data in clinical trials.
problem Insufficient statistical power in rare and pediatric disease clinical trials.
method Dynamic borrowing method based on frequentist approach using similarity measures.
result Demonstrates usefulness of dynamic borrowing in reanalyzing clinical trial data.
Proposes a new model to predict irrational customer behavior.
problem Irrational customer behavior in decision-making.
method Nonparametric choice model using decision trees and probability distributions.
result Decision forest model accurately predicts non-rational customer behavior.
Data describing historical economic growth are analysed. Included in the analysis is the world and regional economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that historical economic growth had a natural tendency to follow hyperbolic distributions. Parameters describing hyperbolic distributions have been determined. A search …
Active learning reduces font classification data needs for historical documents.
problem Identifying fonts in historical documents for OCR accuracy.
method Active learning strategy using image features and bag-of-word representation.
result Combination of uncertainty and diversity sampling achieves 89% accuracy with 17% labeled data.
This study reviews techniques to estimate volatility and price Variance Swaps.
problem Estimating historical volatility and pricing Variance Swaps.
method Review of existing techniques.
result Discussion of various methods to estimate volatility and price Variance Swaps.