Histogram binning method proven with guarantees without splitting data.
problem Proving theoretical guarantees for histogram binning without sample splitting.
method Using Markov property of order statistics to prove calibration guarantees for original method.
result Proves histogram binning has strong calibration guarantees without sample splitting.
New method for neural networks to predict histogram data.
problem Lack of principled approach for histogram regression.
method Pinball loss applied to cumulative histogram.
result Accuracy similar to EMD with less computational cost.
We present sparse tree-based and list-based density estimation methods for binary/categorical data. Our density estimation models are higher dimensional analogies to variable bin width histograms. In each leaf of the tree (or list), the density is constant, similar to the flat density within the bin of a histogram. His…
Unified framework for PDF estimation using MDL-based binning and tensor factorization.
problem Challenges in estimating PDFs for non-uniform, multimodal data.
method MDL-based binning with quantile cuts, tensor factorization (CPD).
result Effective PDF estimation on synthetic and real data.
Many datasets are in the form of tables of binned data. Performing regression on these data usually involves either reading off bin heights, ignoring data from neighbouring bins or interpolating between bins thus over or underestimating the true bin integrals. In this paper we propose an elegant method for performing G…
Accurate calibration of probabilistic predictive models learned is critical for many practical prediction and decision-making tasks. There are two main categories of methods for building calibrated classifiers. One approach is to develop methods for learning probabilistic models that are well-calibrated, ab initio. The…
This paper improves multi-class calibration methods using mutual information maximization-based binning.
problem Calibration of deep neural network predictions, especially for small prior classes.
method I-Max concept for binning, shared class-wise calibration strategy.
result Improves multi-class ranking and calibration performance using a small calibration set.
The histogram method is a powerful non-parametric approach for estimating the probability density function of a continuous variable. But the construction of a histogram, compared to the parametric approaches, demands a large number of observations to capture the underlying density function. Thus it is not suitable for …
In the framework of Multifractal Diffusion Entropy Analysis we propose a method for choosing an optimal bin-width in histograms generated from underlying probability distributions of interest. The method presented uses techniques of Rényi's entropy and the mean squared error analysis to discuss the conditions under whi…
In this work, we present a method to compute the Kantorovich-Wasserstein distance of order one between a pair of two-dimensional histograms. Recent works in Computer Vision and Machine Learning have shown the benefits of measuring Wasserstein distances of order one between histograms with n bins, by solving a classic…
The study evaluates different probability models for uncertainty visualization using entropy calculations.
problem Choosing the right probability model affects memory use, run time, and accuracy in uncertainty visualization.
method Entropy calculation on ensemble data to compare various probability models (uniform, Gaussian, histogram, quantile).
result Models matching the ensemble data distribution have the lowest entropy, indicating better accuracy.
This paper presents a novel method to compute the exact Kantorovich-Wasserstein distance between a pair of d-dimensional histograms having n bins each. We prove that this problem is equivalent to an uncapacitated minimum cost flow problem on a (d+1)-partite graph with (d+1)n nodes and dndd+1 arcs,…
Plots show miscalibration directly as slopes of secant lines.
problem Detecting discrepancies between probabilistic predictions and actual outcomes.
method Cumulative differences between observed and expected values displayed as slopes of secant lines.
result Directly shows miscalibration without binning or kernel density estimation.
Applications such as weather forecasting and personalized medicine demand models that output calibrated probability estimates---those representative of the true likelihood of a prediction. Most models are not calibrated out of the box but are recalibrated by post-processing model outputs. We find in this work that popu…
New method unfolds distribution moments directly from data without binning.
problem Deconvolving detector distortions in particle physics.
method Uses machine learning, inspired by GANs, to unfold moments directly.
result More precise than bin-based approaches and comparable to unbinned methods.
Bayesian histograms achieve optimal distribution estimation with minimal memory usage.
problem Efficiently estimating distributions with minimal memory footprint.
method Bayesian histograms for distribution estimation under Wasserstein distance.
result Bayesian histograms require fewer bins to achieve minimax optimality, reducing memory usage by a polynomial factor.
Given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval, we study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the volatility coefficient of a stochastic differential equation. We postulate a histogram-type prior on the volatility with piecewise constant realisations on bins forming a partition of the time in…
Databases in domains such as healthcare are routinely released to the public in aggregated form. Unfortunately, naive modeling with aggregated data may significantly diminish the accuracy of inferences at the individual level. This paper addresses the scenario where features are provided at the individual level, but th…
Proposes top-label calibration and M2B framework for multiclass to binary calibration.
problem Multiclass calibration and interpretation issues.
method Top-label calibration and M2B reduction framework.
result M2B + HB achieves lower calibration error than other methods.
LiteMORT reduces memory usage for GBDT models by 30% with improved accuracy.
problem Memory inefficiency in GBDT models, especially with adaptive compact distributions.
method Share memory, implicit merging, adaptive histogram resizing.
result Significant reduction in memory usage with improved accuracy.
Package implements ABC-Boost for multi-class classification.
problem Improving accuracy in multi-class classification.
method Combines histogram-based binning and explicit gain formula for efficient tree splitting.
result ABC-Boost significantly improves multi-class classification accuracy.
A new method for unfolding histograms without matrix inversion.
problem Matrix inversion in experimental physics, especially in high-energy particle physics.
method Sampling many distributions, folding them through the response matrix, and choosing the closest one to the data.
result Performs as well as traditional methods in well-defined inverse problems and outperforms them in ill-defined ones.
We propose a novel algorithm for large-scale regression problems named histogram transform ensembles (HTE), composed of random rotations, stretchings, and translations. First of all, we investigate the theoretical properties of HTE when the regression function lies in the Hölder space Ck,α, k∈N0, $…
A new method detects concept drift in streaming data using k-means space partitioning.
problem Detecting distribution changes in streaming data.
method Equal intensity k-means space partitioning (EI-kMeans) and heuristic sensitivity improvement.
result EI-kMeans improves drift detection accuracy and sensitivity.
The paper improves density estimation in high dimensions using tensor decompositions.
problem Density estimation struggles in high-dimensional data due to the curse of dimensionality.
method The paper uses nonnegative tensor decompositions to simplify dependence assumptions and estimate marginal distributions.
result Theoretical results show that restricting estimation to low-rank nonnegative PARAFAC or Tucker decompositions removes the dimensionality exponent on bin width rates.
New method detects concept drift in data streams with missing values.
problem Uncertainty introduced by missing values in concept drift detection.
method Fuzzy distance estimation and histogram bin allocation.
result Fuzzy set theory improves drift detection in data with missing values.
Neural networks are increasingly used for graph classification in a variety of contexts. Social media is a critical application area in this space, however the characteristics of social media graphs differ from those seen in most popular benchmark datasets. Social networks tend to be large and sparse, while benchmarks …
This work optimizes statistical inference with neural networks for high-energy physics data.
problem Optimal dimensionality reduction with minimal loss of information in the presence of systematic uncertainties.
method Neural network optimization based on binned Poisson likelihoods with nuisance parameters.
result Estimates of parameters of interest close to optimal.
Proposes a new method for two-dimensional data discretization.
problem Discretization of multi-dimensional data, especially when dimensions are dependent.
method PALM algorithm, which alternately partitions and merges regions using the MDL principle.
result PALM accurately reveals ground truth partitions and approximates well outside the model class.
New method uses neural networks to estimate parameters without needing detector simulations.
problem Estimating parameters in high-energy physics with detector effects.
method Two-level fitting approach: SRGN (Simulation-level fit based on Reweighting Generator-level events with Neural networks).
result Demonstrated using simulated datasets, SRGN can estimate parameters without detector effects.
Unified framework for generalized Venn and Venn-Abers calibration for reliable prediction.
problem Asymptotic guarantees of popular distribution-free methods in model calibration.
method Unified framework extending Vovk's approach to generic loss functions, transforming predictors into set-valued predictions.
result Finite-sample set predictions shrink to a single conditionally calibrated prediction, capturing epistemic uncertainty.
Fast, fully-automated histograms for large data sets.
problem Efficiently constructing histograms for large-scale data.
method G-Enum histograms using Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle for model selection and a greedy search heuristic.
result Construct histograms in linearithmic time, significantly faster than previous methods.
For a dataset of label-count pairs, an anonymized histogram is the multiset of counts. Anonymized histograms appear in various potentially sensitive contexts such as password-frequency lists, degree distribution in social networks, and estimation of symmetric properties of discrete distributions. Motivated by these app…
Stock price movement reveals complex interdependencies that are simplified through linear correlation.
problem Exploring the spectral dynamics of the Indonesian capital market using structural network representations.
method Combining three dependency estimators (Pearson, MI adaptive binning, and MI-kNN) with two graph filtering schemes (MST and PMFG) and four community decoders.
result MI adaptive binning is shown to be more proportional than kNN for detecting residual information.
The complex wave representation (CWR) converts unsigned 2D distance transforms into their corresponding wave functions. Here, the distance transform S(X) appears as the phase of the wave function φ(X)---specifically, φ(X)=exp(iS(X)/τwhere τis a free parameter. In this work, we prove a novel result using the higher-orde…
An essential aspect of texture analysis is the extraction of features that describe the distribution of values in local, spatial regions. We present a localized histogram layer for artificial neural networks. Instead of computing global histograms as done previously, the proposed histogram layer directly computes the l…
The paper uses geometric methods to classify medical data histograms.
problem Classifying medical data histograms for disease diagnosis.
method Information geometry of beta distributions for comparing and classifying histograms.
result Geometric tools, particularly negatively curved Fisher information, enable unique mean calculation and K-means classification.
Isotonic regression binning affects calibration statistics of machine learning models.
problem Isotonic regression binning introduces aleatoric uncertainty in calibration statistics.
method Calibration error statistics are recalibrated using isotonic regression, which produces stratified uncertainties.
result Stratified uncertainties lead to significant differences in bin-based calibration statistics.
Improved binning technique boosts nUV measure performance.
problem Improving the performance of the nUV measure in real applications.
method Introduced the nUV measure, provided theoretical optimal binning techniques, and proposed algorithms for approximate solutions.
result Approximate binning techniques show 4-13% increase in AUC scores with statistical significance.
Optimal binning method for numeric targets using mathematical programming.
problem Optimizing the discretization of numeric variables for classification.
method Mathematical programming formulation for binary, continuous, and multi-class targets with constraints.
result Convex mixed-integer programming formulations for all target types.
Paper proposes a method to predict deep neural network confidences with guarantees.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in deep neural networks for safety-critical applications.
method Uses Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals and histogram binning for calibrated prediction.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of predicted confidences in improving DNN performance and safety.
Due to the success of the bag-of-word modeling paradigm, clustering histograms has become an important ingredient of modern information processing. Clustering histograms can be performed using the celebrated k-means centroid-based algorithm. From the viewpoint of applications, it is usually required to deal with symm…
Balls-and-Bins sampling improves DP-SGD privacy and utility.
problem Improving privacy and utility in DP-SGD implementations.
method Introducing Balls-and-Bins sampling as an alternative to shuffling in DP-SGD.
result Balls-and-Bins sampling achieves utility comparable to shuffling while offering better privacy amplification.
Bin Packing problems have been widely studied because of their broad applications in different domains. Known as a set of NP-hard problems, they have different vari- ations and many heuristics have been proposed for obtaining approximate solutions. Specifically, for the 1D variable sized bin packing problem, the two ke…
This paper examines the Histogram Loss for regression, revealing its effectiveness without needing complex tuning.
problem Improving regression models by learning the entire distribution.
method Investigates Histogram Loss, a method that minimizes cross-entropy between a target distribution and a histogram prediction.
result The performance gain in regression models using Histogram Loss comes from optimization improvements, not extra modeling.
New methods reduce bias in estimating calibration error.
problem Reducing bias in estimating calibration error.
method Synthesizing model outputs and using equal-mass bins.
result Two reliable calibration-error estimators found: debiased estimator and ECE_sweep.
Improved bounds on neural network regions using activation histograms.
problem Bounding the number of affine regions in ReLU networks.
method Analysis of algebraic topology problem, extension of framework to subnetwork composition.
result Slightly tighter bounds and insights into parameter initialization.
ABHT boosts regression by filtering regions with different smoothness.
problem Improving regression performance through local adaptivity.
method Gradient boosting with adaptive histogram transform.
result ABHT converges faster than PEHT in Hölder continuous spaces.