Parametric insurance offers better risk-sharing in high-risk settings than traditional indemnity insurance.
problem High-risk environments where traditional indemnity insurance is unaffordable or ineffective.
method Comparison of excess-of-loss indemnity insurance and parametric insurance within a mean-variance framework, considering fixed costs and binding budget constraints.
result Parametric insurance yields higher welfare for risk-averse individuals, especially when indemnity insurance is impractical.
Study uses RL to optimize crypto portfolios with two-sided transactions and lending.
problem Managing downside risk and capital optimization in high-risk crypto markets.
method Integrates RL with a new environmental formulation and PnL-based reward function, using SAC agent with CNN-MHA.
result Significantly outperforms benchmarks, especially in high-volatility scenarios.
Adapts safe policies for exploration in high-risk settings.
problem Balancing safety and exploration in high-risk environments.
method Uses conformal calibration on a safe reference policy to determine aggressive action limits.
result Safe exploration improves performance without requiring model class identification or hyperparameter tuning.
Study optimal liquidation under high risk aversion and small price impact.
problem Optimal liquidation of options under high risk aversion and linear price impact.
method Analyzes Bachelier model with linear price impact, computes utility indifference prices, and finds asymptotically optimal portfolios.
result Establishes a scaling limit for vanishing price impact and computes corresponding utility indifference prices.
Study improves summarization reliability in risky scenarios.
problem Reliability of automatic summarization in high-risk contexts.
method Conditional generation with Bayesian inference and entropy regularization.
result Significant improvement in robustness and reliability of summarization.
We introduce an off-policy evaluation procedure for highlighting episodes where applying a reinforcement learned (RL) policy is likely to have produced a substantially different outcome than the observed policy. In particular, we introduce a class of structural causal models (SCMs) for generating counterfactual traject…
ENN method uses expectile regression for genetic data analysis of complex diseases.
problem Discover additional genetic variants contributing to complex diseases.
method Developed an expectile neural network (ENN) method integrating expectile regression and neural networks.
result ENN method outperforms existing expectile regression in discovering genetic variants predisposing to sub-populations.
We develop a neural network model to classify liver cancer patients into high-risk and low-risk groups using genomic data. Our approach provides a novel technique to classify big data sets using neural network models. We preprocess the data before training the neural network models. We first expand the data using wavel…
The study designs inherently interpretable machine learning models for high-risk sectors.
problem The need for transparent and explainable machine learning models in regulated industries.
method Qualitative template based on feature effects and model architecture constraints for assessing inherent interpretability.
result Demonstrates the design and evaluation of an interpretable ReLU DNN model for predicting credit default.
Proposes a new method for uncertainty estimation in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in neural networks for high-risk applications.
method Intuitive framework based on signal-to-noise ratio and variance-gated measure.
result Demonstrates a collapse in diversity of committee machines.
In healthcare, the highest risk individuals for morbidity and mortality are rarely those with the greatest modifiable risk. By contrast, many machine learning formulations implicitly attend to the highest risk individuals. We focus on this problem in point processes, a popular modeling technique for the analysis of the…
Develops a risk score to assist ECMO planning for critically ill patients with viral or unspecified pneumonia.
problem Lack of a risk score to guide ECMO planning for critically ill patients.
method Leverages machine learning to develop the PEER score.
result PEER score predicts mortality and decompensation in patients eligible for ECMO.
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
The paper proposes an iterative approach to batch reinforcement learning for safer and more informative data collection.
problem Learning policies that are too rigid and do not adapt to new data.
method Safe diversified model-based policy search in an iterative batch reinforcement learning framework.
result Improved learned policies through continuous data collection and adaptation.
Develops methods to improve reliability of deep learning for autonomous driving.
problem Safety concerns in deploying autonomous driving systems.
method Introduces a new criterion (true class probability) for estimating model confidence and learns it from data.
result Proposed method provides better failure prediction than current uncertainty measures.
AI-driven framework improves enterprise financial audits and risk identification.
problem Manual auditing is inefficient and limited by data complexity and evolving fraud tactics.
method Machine learning algorithms (SVM, RF, KNN) applied to a dataset of audit project counts, violations, and fraud instances.
result Random Forest achieves best performance with F1-score of 0.9012, identifying fraud and compliance anomalies.
H-ReIL learns to drive safely in near-accident scenarios.
problem Driving safely in high-risk near-accident situations.
method Hierarchical RL and IL approach.
result High-level policy switches between low-level policies for safe driving.
The paper provides a uniform convergence bound for smooth calibration error and its relationship with functional gradient.
problem Limited theoretical understanding of learning algorithms achieving high accuracy and good calibration.
method Focuses on smooth calibration error, providing a uniform convergence bound and proving the relationship with functional gradient.
result Derives conditions for simultaneous classification and calibration guarantees in gradient boosting trees, kernel boosting, and neural networks.
Study develops a dynamic risk model for COVID-19 mortality using UK Biobank data.
problem Developing tools to monitor high-risk patients during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Data-driven random forest classification model using baseline characteristics and symptoms.
result Model predicts COVID-19 mortality with excellent performance (AUC: 0.91), identifying novel predictors.
VTrackIt creates a synthetic dataset with infrastructure and vehicle info for AVs.
problem Lack of infrastructure and pooled vehicle info in existing AV datasets.
method Developed VTrackIt, a synthetic dataset with intelligent infrastructure and pooled vehicle info, and introduced InfraGAN for trajectory predictions.
result VTrackIt reduces high-risk edge cases in AV trajectory predictions.
The paper tackles distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-source data.
problem Challenges in achieving valid inferences due to distribution shifts and privacy concerns.
method Derives efficient influence functions, incorporates machine learning, and proposes data-adaptive strategies.
result Achieves parametric rates of convergence to nominal coverage probabilities for prediction intervals.
ICP provides interval predictions with high confidence coverage.
problem High-risk settings where true output must be highly probable.
method ICP is a distribution-free, model-agnostic algorithm.
result ICP outputs prediction intervals with high coverage probability.
High-risk domains require reliable confidence estimates from predictive models. Deep latent variable models provide these, but suffer from the rigid variational distributions used for tractable inference, which err on the side of overconfidence. We propose Stochastic Quantized Activation Distributions (SQUAD), which im…
Investors in Target Date Funds are automatically switched from high risk to low risk assets as their retirements approach. Such funds have become very popular, but our analysis brings into question the rationale for them. Based on both a model with parameters fitted to historical returns and on bootstrap resampling, we…
Developing state-of-the-art approaches for specific tasks is a major driving force in our research community. Depending on the prestige of the task, publishing it can come along with a lot of visibility. The question arises how reliable are our evaluation methodologies to compare approaches? One common methodology to i…
Study utility indifference pricing in a Bachelier model with small linear price impact.
problem Utility indifference pricing in a model with linear price impact.
method Analyzes the Bachelier model with exponential utility indifference prices for vanilla European options.
result Computes the scaling limit of utility indifference prices for a vanishing price impact inversely proportional to risk aversion.
Characterizing a patient's progression through stages of sepsis is critical for enabling risk stratification and adaptive, personalized treatment. However, commonly used sepsis diagnostic criteria fail to account for significant underlying heterogeneity, both between patients as well as over time in a single patient. W…
A Convolutional Neural Network was used to predict kidney function in patients with chronic kidney disease from high-resolution digital pathology scans of their kidney biopsies. Kidney biopsies were taken from participants of the NEPTUNE study, a longitudinal cohort study whose goal is to set up infrastructure for obse…
TUV Austria proposes certification for ML applications to ensure reliability.
problem Ensuring trust in AI applications to meet societal reliance requirements.
method Holistic approach analyzing security, functionality, data quality, ethics, and criticality levels.
result Certification process for low-risk ML applications in supervised learning.
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification for black-box models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for high-risk machine learning applications.
method Conformal prediction creates valid uncertainty sets without distributional assumptions.
result Sets contain the ground truth with a specified probability, e.g., 90%.
Method predicts biomarker trajectories with uncertainty bands for Alzheimer's disease.
problem Uncertainty in biomarker predictions poses risks in clinical deployment.
method Conformal prediction for randomly-timed biomarker trajectories.
result Conformal bands achieve desired coverage and are tighter than baseline.
Copula-based fusion improves breast cancer risk stratification.
problem Combining clinical and genomic risk scores using simple rules fails to capture their joint relationship.
method Used copulas to model the joint relationship between clinical and genomic risk scores.
result Copula-based fusion improves risk stratification, identifying subgroups with the worst prognosis.
This paper argues, first, that a major problem in the planning of large infrastructure projects is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in deciding whether to build, and the high risks such misinformation generates. Second, it explores the causes of misinformation and risk…
We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain approximate forms of these probabilities which prove, among other interesting propertie…
Study proposes managing COVID-19 without economy shutdowns.
problem Avoiding lockdowns while maintaining healthcare system capacity.
method Detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, calibrated to data.
result Countries can avoid lockdowns if ICU beds per million > 100.
Is the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) more or less than one? This question can be answered by confronting theoretical results of asset pricing models with investor behaviour during episodes of stock market panic. If we consider these episodes as periods of high risk aversion, then lower asset prices are…
New method for interpreting financial model risks.
problem Fairly allocating risk in financial models.
method Extending Shapley value framework for axiomatic risk attribution.
result Risk can be well allocated in financial models.
We consider thin incomplete financial markets, where traders with heterogeneous preferences and risk exposures have motive to behave strategically regarding the demand schedules they submit, thereby impacting prices and allocations. We argue that traders relatively more exposed to market risk tend to submit more elasti…
Method predicts ODX scores for breast cancer patients based on clinical data.
problem Predicting ODX scores for breast cancer patients to aid decision-making.
method Distributional random forest approach using 9 clinico-pathological characteristics.
result Correctly predicted 92% of low risk and 40.2% of high risk patients.
We have conducted an agent-based simulation of chain bankruptcy. The propagation of credit risk on a network, i.e., chain bankruptcy, is the key to nderstanding largesized bankruptcies. In our model, decrease of revenue by the loss of accounts payable is modeled by an interaction term, and bankruptcy is defined as a ca…
Study predicts risk of true-lumen narrowing after ATAAD surgery using CT data.
problem Early post-surgery risk assessment for aortic dissection patients.
method Retrospective study with CT data, derived cross-sectional shapes, form factor (FF) for morphology assessment, linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for risk classification, LOPO-CV for prediction.
result Machine-learning model accurately predicts risk for all high-risk patients and low-risk patients, potentially reducing hospital visits.
For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion and a long horizon, who trades in a market with constant investment opportunities and small proportional transaction costs, we obtain explicitly the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volume. We identify these quantities as…
The paper evaluates criteria for selecting cryptocurrencies based on historical data.
problem High risk of cryptocurrencies due to volatility.
method Characterized returns and risks using historical data in short time windows (7 and 15 days). Analyzed the importance of criteria using various methods.
result Importance of criteria for selecting cryptocurrencies is analyzed and evaluated.
Currency volatility shocks predict lower excess returns, and buying weak transmitters outperforms selling strong ones.
problem Predicting currency returns using volatility shocks.
method Constructed a dynamic, directed network of volatility connections using option-implied volatilities.
result Currencies that transmit more volatility shocks earn lower excess returns.
Good predictors of ICU Mortality have the potential to identify high-risk patients earlier, improve ICU resource allocation, or create more accurate population-level risk models. Machine learning practitioners typically make choices about how to represent features in a particular model, but these choices are seldom eva…
The role of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning has become crucial with growing use of predictive models in high-risk applications. Though a large class of methods exists for measuring deep uncertainties, in practice, the resulting estimates are found to be poorly calibrated, thus making it challenging to …
A key impediment to reinforcement learning (RL) in real applications with limited, batch data is defining a reward function that reflects what we implicitly know about reasonable behaviour for a task and allows for robust off-policy evaluation. In this work, we develop a method to identify an admissible set of reward f…
In this work, we utilize Machine Learning for early recognition of patients at high risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which is critical for successful prevention strategies for this devastating syndrome. The difficulty in early ARDS recognition stems from its complex and heterogenous nature. In this s…