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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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18355370 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for high-likelihood regions

Nested sampling is a powerful technique for exploring high-likelihood regions, but its theoretical derivation is complex and involves approximations.

problem Sampling from likelihood-constrained priors in nested sampling
method Providing a comprehensive and detailed exposition of nested sampling derivation and practical challenges
result Deepening understanding of nested sampling and fostering future enhancements

Geometrically, high-likelihood regions in DGMs are unlikely to generate OOD data.

problem The paradox of high-likelihood OOD detection in deep generative models.
method Local intrinsic dimension estimation to identify high-likelihood regions that do not generate OOD data.
result A method pairing likelihoods and LID estimates for reliable OOD detection.

Novel method for high-dimensional BO using CMA to define local regions.

problem Challenges in applying BO to high-dimensional optimization problems.
method CMA strategy to learn search distribution and define local regions.
result Our method outperforms existing techniques on various benchmarks.

Graph Energy Matching improves generation quality for molecular graphs.

problem Discrete energy-based models struggle with efficient and high-quality sampling for graph generation.
method Inspired by transport-map optimization, Graph Energy Matching learns a permutation-invariant potential energy to guide sampling.
result GEM matches or surpasses discrete diffusion baselines on molecular graph benchmarks.

Unified framework for inference in complex nonlinear processes.

problem Challenges in inferring nonlinear continuous stochastic processes with sparse observations and complex topologies.
method Neural Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (NBFFG) framework that constructs a variational posterior using a proxy linear-Gaussian process.
result Empirical results show NBFFG outperforms baselines on synthetic benchmarks and high-dimensional phylogenetic analysis tasks.

This work improves safety validation of autonomous vehicles by finding interpretable failures.

problem Finding interpretable failures of autonomous systems in simulation.
method Signal temporal logic expressions optimized for high likelihood and human interpretability.
result Our methodology finds more interpretable failures with higher likelihood compared to baseline approaches.

MT-SGD samples from multiple target distributions using gradient descent.

problem Sampling from multiple unnormalized target distributions.
method Proposes MT-SGD, a flow of intermediate distributions to sample from multiple target distributions.
result Asymptotic analysis shows MT-SGD reduces to multiple-gradient descent for multi-objective optimization.

Gibbs sampling, as a model learning method, is known to produce the most accurate results available in a variety of domains, and is a de facto standard in these domains. Yet, it is also well known that Gibbs random walks usually have bottlenecks, sometimes termed "local maxima", and thus samplers often return suboptima…

2018-04-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new reinforcement learning method to improve agent performance in control tasks.

problem Shortcomings of maximum likelihood estimation in model-based reinforcement learning.
method Directly optimizes expected returns using implicit differentiation of a Bellman optimality function.
result Empirical evidence shows improved performance in model misspecification regime.

This paper introduces a novel approach for dengue fever classification based on online learning paradigms. The proposed approach is suitable for practical implementation as it enables learning using only a few training samples. With time, the proposed approach is capable of learning incrementally from the data collecte…

2019-04-17abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper introduces methods to handle discrete data by dequantization.

problem Handling discrete data in deep learning models.
method Dequantization framework, including importance-weighted and Rényi dequantization objectives, and autoregressive dequantization.
result Improved performance on uniform dequantization distributions and state-of-the-art negative log-likelihood on CIFAR10.

Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs) provide an elegant and versatile way to sample sets of items that balance the point-wise quality with the set-wise diversity of selected items. For this reason, they have gained prominence in many machine learning applications that rely on subset selection. However, sampling from a …

2019-01-07abs ↗pdf ↗

Knowledge base (KB) completion adds new facts to a KB by making inferences from existing facts, for example by inferring with high likelihood nationality(X,Y) from bornIn(X,Y). Most previous methods infer simple one-hop relational synonyms like this, or use as evidence a multi-hop relational path treated as an atomic f…

2015-04-24abs ↗pdf ↗

The study analyzes how bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement affect insurance companies' financial stability.

problem Analyzing the impact of bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement on insurance companies' financial stability.
method Examined a discrete-time risk model with time-varying premiums, evaluating two types of claims and settlement delays.
result Delayed settlement of by-claims leads to lower ruin probabilities under specific assumptions.

Most successful machine intelligence systems rely on gradient-based learning, which is made possible by backpropagation. Some systems are designed to aid us in interpreting data when explicit goals cannot be provided. These unsupervised systems are commonly trained by backpropagating through a likelihood function. We i…

2018-06-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Study EM and GD for clustering with penalties for misspecification and high dimensions.

problem Clustering with misspecification and high-dimensional data.
method Model-based Gaussian Mixture Models, EM algorithm, GD optimization with AD, penalized likelihood.
result GD outperforms EM on high-dimensional data but both have poor cluster interpretation.

Isoperimetric regions in scaled product manifolds are products of regions in each factor.

problem Characterizing isoperimetric regions in anisotropically scaled product manifolds.
method Analyzing regions with smooth boundaries in scaled product manifolds.
result Isoperimetric regions in scaled product manifolds are products of regions in each factor.

There are few papers about the consumption pattern of the Portuguese wine, using econometrics techniques. This work, pretend to analyze the consumers behavior of the wine produced in Portugal, determining the demand equation with panel data methods. There were used statistical data available in the Alentejo Regional Wi…

2012-12-28abs ↗pdf ↗

A region crossing change at a region of a spatial-graph diagram is a transformation changing every crossing on the boundary of the region. In this paper, it is shown that every spatial graph consisting of theta-curves can be unknotted by region crossing changes.

2019-10-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Isoperimetric regions minimize the size of their boundaries among all regions with the same volume. In Euclidean and Hyperbolic space, isoperimetric regions are round balls. We show that isoperimetric regions in two and three-dimensional nonpositively curved manifolds are not necessarily balls, and need not even be con…

2016-04-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes a new method to approximate Bayesian predictive uncertainty.

problem Bayesian uncertainty quantification in model predictions.
method Self-supervised learning approach to approximate posterior predictive distribution.
result SSLA and ASSLA outperform classical Laplace approximations in predictive calibration.

Contrast uses normalizing flows to create precise prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.

problem Generating reliable prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs in supervised and unsupervised learning.
method Contrast uses normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances in latent space, creating sharp prediction regions.
result Contrast maintains guaranteed coverage probability and outperforms existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions.

We consider a generic configuration of regions, consisting of a collection of distinct compact regions {Ωi}\{Ω_i\} in Rn+1\mathbb{R}^{n+1} which may be either smooth regions disjoint from the others or regions which meet on their piecewise smooth boundaries Bi\mathcal{B}_i in a generic way. We introduce a skeletal linking …

2014-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we formulate a new local move on virtual knot diagram, called arc shift move. Further, we extend it to another local move called region arc shift defined on a region of a virtual knot diagram. We establish that these arc shift and region arc shift moves are unknotting operations by showing that any virtu…

2018-08-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Region crossing change is a local operation on link diagrams. The behavior of region crossing change on S2S^2 is well understood. In this paper, we study the behavior of (modified) region crossing change on higher genus surfaces.

2019-08-19abs ↗pdf ↗

Problems on region choices for knot and link diagrams solved using Alexander numbering.

problem Existence of solutions for region choice problems on knot and link diagrams.
method Alexander numbering for regions, alternative proofs, necessary and sufficient conditions.
result Existence of solutions for region choice problems on link diagrams.

Spatial graphs of non-Eulerian or proper Eulerian planar graphs are unknottable by region crossing changes.

problem Unknottability of spatial graphs by region crossing changes.
method Region crossing changes to switch over/under relations within regions of spatial graph diagrams.
result Spatial graphs of non-Eulerian or proper Eulerian planar graphs are unknottable by region crossing changes.

Region-specific linear models are widely used in practical applications because of their non-linear but highly interpretable model representations. One of the key challenges in their use is non-convexity in simultaneous optimization of regions and region-specific models. This paper proposes novel convex region-specific…

2014-10-31abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian optimization tackles constrained high-dimensional problems with penalties and trust regions.

problem Constrained optimization in high-dimensional black-box settings with expensive evaluations and complex feasibility regions.
method Penalty formulation, surrogate model, trust region strategy, Expected Improvement acquisition function.
result The proposed Trust Region method identifies high-quality feasible solutions with fewer evaluations and maintains stable performance.

Generic smooth boundaries for isoperimetric regions in 8D manifolds.

problem Understanding boundaries of isoperimetric regions in high-dimensional spaces.
method Generic regularity results for isoperimetric regions in closed Riemannian manifolds of dimension eight.
result Smooth nondegenerate boundaries for isoperimetric regions for generic metrics and volumes.

Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.

problem Matching conformal prediction regions with highest density regions.
method Using consonance and the Imprecise Probability theory of clouds.
result Imprecise Highest Density Regions are equivalent to Conformal Prediction Regions under consonance.

In this paper we propose {\it a region choice problem} for a knot projection. This problem is an integral extension of Shimizu's 'region crossing change unknotting operation.' We show that there exists a solution of the region choice problem for all knot projections.

2012-01-22abs ↗pdf ↗