A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Stochastic methods improve data assimilation with high-frequency sensor data.
Using recent advances in the econometrics literature, we disentangle from high frequency observations on the transaction prices of a large sample of NYSE stocks a fundamental component and a microstructure noise component. We then relate these statistical measurements of market microstructure noise to observable charac…
A new model captures irregularly spaced high-frequency prices and their volatility.
The study tackles modeling high-frequency financial data using continuous distributions, finding them inadequate.
Estimates graph process with high-frequency data, proving asymptotic properties.
When estimating high-frequency covariance (quadratic covariation) of two arbitrary assets observed asynchronously, simple assumptions, such as independence, are usually imposed on the relationship between the prices process and the observation times. In this paper, we introduce a general endogenous two-dimensional nonp…
Paper tackles rough volatility estimation from high-frequency data.
The paper tackles the problem of deriving a topological structure among stock prices from high frequency historical values. Similar studies using low frequency data have already provided valuable insights. However, in those cases data need to be collected for a longer period and then they have to be detrended. An effec…
DeepVol uses high-frequency data to forecast volatility, outperforming traditional methods.
Estimates volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency options data.
When stock prices are observed at high frequencies, more information can be utilized in estimation of parameters of the price process. However, high-frequency data are contaminated by the market microstructure noise which causes significant bias in parameter estimation when not taken into account. We propose an estimat…
FOCuS detects changes in mean from high-frequency data efficiently.
The paper introduces a new volatility model for state heterogeneous financial markets using high-frequency data.
A flexible nonparametric online changepoint detection algorithm for high-frequency data.
Estimates drift functions in SDEs using denoising diffusion models.
The paper develops a neural network method for estimating drift functions of diffusion processes from discrete observations.
The R-function theory of Thomas is used to model neutron inelastic scattering and the fine, intermediate, and gross structure observed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on a typical trading day.
We present a novel high frequency residual learning framework, which leads to a highly efficient multi-scale network (MSNet) architecture for mobile and embedded vision problems. The architecture utilizes two networks: a low resolution network to efficiently approximate low frequency components and a high resolution ne…
The analysis of observed conditional distributions of both lagged and simultaneous intraday price increments of a basket of stocks reveals phenomena of dependence - induced volatility smile and kurtosis reduction. A model based on multivariate t-Student distribution shows that the observed effects are caused by colelct…
High-frequency trading models fail due to overfitting and survivor bias.
Robustly detects jumps in high-frequency CIR and CKLS models.
We propose a novel estimation procedure for scale-by-scale lead-lag relationships of financial assets observed at high-frequency in a non-synchronous manner. The proposed estimation procedure does not require any interpolation processing of original datasets and is applicable to those with highest time resolution avail…
We develop a general class of noise-robust estimators based on the existing estimators in the non-noisy high-frequency data literature. The microstructure noise is a parametric function of the limit order book. The noise-robust estimators are constructed as plug-in versions of their counterparts, where we replace the e…
AI traders learn to exploit meta-orders from slower traders, increasing their profits.
Neural HMM with AGA captures multi-scale dynamics in financial markets.
New measures detect HFT activity, revealing its impact on stock prices.
A streaming algorithm estimates quadratic covariation from financial data efficiently.
Study financial markets using synchronization measures and clustering algorithms.
We propose a new Directed Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with memory. As CTRW trajectory consists of spatial jumps preceded by waiting times, in Directed CTRW, we consider the case with only positive spatial jumps. Moreover, we consider the memory in the model as each spatial jump depends on the previous one.…
We introduce a bootstrap procedure for high-frequency statistics of Brownian semistationary processes. More specifically, we focus on a hypothesis test on the roughness of sample paths of Brownian semistationary processes, which uses an estimator based on a ratio of realized power variations. Our new resampling method,…
New method for estimating lead-lag times between non-synchronously observed point processes.
This paper uses Hawkes processes to forecast high-frequency order flow imbalance.
JaxMARL-HFT accelerates MARL for HFT with 240x speedup.
Accurate volatility modelling is paramount for optimal risk management practices. One stylized feature of financial volatility that impacts the modelling process is long memory explored in this paper for alternative risk measures, observed absolute and squared returns for high frequency intraday UK futures. Volatility …
MDS selects assets by combining daily returns and intraday risk curves, improving portfolio performance.
Advancements in deep generative models such as generative adversarial networks and variational autoencoders have resulted in the ability to generate realistic images that are visually indistinguishable from real images, which raises concerns about their potential malicious usage. In this paper, we present an analysis o…
Study uses multi-kernel Hawkes models to analyze high-frequency price dynamics.
In this paper we perform a statistical analysis of the high-frequency returns of the IBEX35 Madrid stock exchange index. We find that its probability distribution seems to be stable over different time scales, a stylized fact observed in many different financial time series. However, an in-depth analysis of the data us…
Support Vector Data Description (SVDD) is a machine learning technique used for single class classification and outlier detection. SVDD based K-chart was first introduced by Sun and Tsung for monitoring multivariate processes when underlying distribution of process parameters or quality characteristics depart from Norm…
A microscopic model is established for financial Brownian motion from the direct observation of the dynamics of high-frequency traders (HFTs) in a foreign exchange market. Furthermore, a theoretical framework parallel to molecular kinetic theory is developed for the systematic description of the financial market from m…
Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate three information sources. In GARCH-Itô-OI model, we assume that the option-implied…
We analyzed multifractal properties of 5-minute stock returns from a period of over two years for 100 highly capitalized American companies. The two sources: fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, vitally contribute to the observed multifractal dynamics of the returns. For majority of…
We study the long-term memory in diverse stock market indices and foreign exchange rates using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis(DFA). For all daily and high-frequency market data studied, no significant long-term memory property is detected in the return series, while a strong long-term memory property is found in th…
The paper models financial order books using geometric shears and directional liquidity.
Paper develops a new estimator for rough volatility parameters.
We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronol…
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …
In high-frequency financial data not only returns, but also waiting times between consecutive trades are random variables. Therefore, it is possible to apply continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) as phenomenological models of the high-frequency price dynamics. An empirical analysis performed on the 30 DJIA stocks shows …