Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with high probability under χ2-divergence. method Sharp upper and lower bounds for the classical Laplace estimator, and characterization of minimax high-probability risk for any estimator.
result Sharp bounds for high-probability estimation of discrete distributions can be achieved through a simple smoothing strategy.
New bounds for LDP with heterogeneous privacy levels guaranteeing high probability of accuracy.
problem Statistical estimation under LDP with users having varying privacy levels.
method Developed finite sample upper bounds in ℓ_2-norm with high probability, complemented by lower bounds.
result Optimal guarantees for heterogeneous LDP in terms of probability and constants.
New method estimates and samples high-dimensional probability distributions avoiding optimization and approximation curse.
problem Estimating high-dimensional probability distributions from data samples.
method Hierarchic probability flow from coarse to fine scales, defined by conditional probabilities across scales.
result Sampling hierarchic models avoids critical slowing down at phase transitions and generates turbulence and dark matter images.
The study optimizes distribution estimation from samples with relative entropy error, adapting to sparse distributions.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with high-probability accuracy in relative entropy.
method Analysis of Laplace estimator and confidence-dependent smoothing techniques, including data-dependent smoothing.
result Optimal high-probability risk bounds for various estimators, including a new data-dependent smoothing method.
Paper proposes new density estimators for high-dimensional data.
problem Prohibitive computational cost and slow convergence rate in high-dimensional density estimation.
method Adaptive hyperbolic cross density estimators in mixed smooth Sobolev spaces.
result Proposed estimators do not suffer curse of dimensionality under Integral Probability Metrics.
Unified high-probability regret bounds for online convex optimisation with randomised gradient estimators.
problem Online convex optimisation with randomised gradient estimators for ℓq-Lipschitz losses. method FTRL with randomised two-point finite-difference gradient estimators based on cone-measure sampling from ℓr-spheres. result Unified high-probability regret bounds for all p,q,r∈[1,∞]. We present a novel procedure for scaling relatively high frequency tail probability and quantile estimates for the conditional distribution of returns.
Matrix completion is a modern missing data problem where both the missing structure and the underlying parameter are high dimensional. Although missing structure is a key component to any missing data problems, existing matrix completion methods often assume a simple uniform missing mechanism. In this work, we study ma…
We derive concentration inequalities for differentially private median and mean estimators building on the "Propose, Test, Release" (PTR) mechanism introduced by Dwork and Lei (2009). We introduce a new general version of the PTR mechanism that allows us to derive high probability error bounds for differentially privat…
Wavelet-based online learning adapts to noisy Besov spaces with high probability.
problem Minimizing integrated squared error in Besov spaces with noisy observations.
method Adaptive wavelet-based online learning algorithm that dynamically adjusts to gradient noise.
result Achieves minimax-optimal integrated squared error with high probability.
This work improves deep neural network probability estimation methods.
problem Estimating probabilities from high-dimensional data with inherent uncertainty.
method Investigates and compares methods for probability estimation using deep neural networks, proposing a new method that promotes consistent probabilities.
result The new method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on simulated and real-world data.
A new method estimates rare events using tensor trains.
problem Estimating rare event probabilities in high-dimensional problems.
method Approximating optimal importance distribution via tensor-train decompositions and compositions.
result Better variance reduction and efficient computation of rare event probabilities.
New algorithm reduces high-probability regret for time-varying feedback graphs.
problem High-probability regret bounds for adversarial bandits with time-varying feedback graphs.
method Online mirror descent framework with innovative techniques for pessimistic loss estimators.
result Achieves optimal high-probability regret bound for general and weakly observable graphs.
Improved bounds for discrete probability distribution estimation under the ℓ∞ norm.
problem Estimating discrete probability distributions under the ℓ∞ norm with improved bounds.
method Minimax bounds in expectation and high-probability tail bounds.
result Resolved open questions posed in Kontorovich and Painsky (JMLR, 2025), including a fully empirical tightest risk bound and identifying the worst-case extremal distribution.
A new method for estimating density ratios in high dimensions.
problem Difficulty in accurately comparing probability distributions in high-dimensional settings.
method Divide-and-conquer approach via an infinite continuum of bridge distributions and time score matching.
result The proposed method effectively estimates density ratios and performs well on complex datasets.
Structured high-cardinality data arises in many domains, and poses a major challenge for both modeling and inference. Graphical models are a popular approach to modeling structured data but they are unsuitable for high-cardinality variables. The count-min (CM) sketch is a popular approach to estimating probabilities in…
Classification is an important statistical learning tool. In real application, besides high prediction accuracy, it is often desirable to estimate class conditional probabilities for new observations. For traditional problems where the number of observations is large, there exist many well developed approaches. Recentl…
New complexity analysis for estimating normalizing constants in high dimensions.
problem Estimating the normalizing constant of unnormalized probability densities in high dimensions.
method Analyze and derive the oracle complexity of annealed importance sampling.
result Oracle complexity of $\widetilde{O}\left(\frac{dβ^2{\mathcal{A}}^2}{\varepsilon^4}
ight)$ for estimating Z within ε relative error. New approach for online learning with adaptive adversaries, simpler and more effective.
problem Online learning with adaptive adversaries, especially in bandits and MDPs.
method Uses standard unbiased estimators and a simple increasing learning rate schedule, aided by logarithmically homogeneous self-concordant barriers and strengthened Freedman's inequality.
result First high-probability regret bounds for adversarial bandits and MDPs, resolving open problems.
Improved location estimation for high-dimensional data with finite sample size.
problem Estimating the shift in high-dimensional data with limited samples.
method Smoothed estimators and bounds on subgamma vectors.
result Convergence to Cramér-Rao bound for finite sample sizes.
We propose {graphical sure screening}, or GRASS, a very simple and computationally-efficient screening procedure for recovering the structure of a Gaussian graphical model in the high-dimensional setting. The GRASS estimate of the conditional dependence graph is obtained by thresholding the elements of the sample covar…
New method approximates high-dimensional probability densities efficiently.
problem Approximating high-dimensional probability densities accurately and efficiently.
method Hierarchical tensor-network approach using randomized SVD and linear equations.
result The method effectively approximates high-dimensional densities with linear complexity.
The paper develops SGD for estimating operators from data.
problem Estimating operators from data in infinite-dimensional spaces.
method Regularized SGD with operator-valued kernels.
result Near-optimal convergence rates for prediction and estimation.
Paper proposes a matrix optimization model for reliable Euclidean embedding from noisy data.
problem Challenges in Euclidean embedding from noisy observations containing outliers.
method Matrix optimization based embedding model to detect and remove outliers.
result The model provides high accuracy estimators and successfully identifies outliers.
The softmax representation of probabilities for categorical variables plays a prominent role in modern machine learning with numerous applications in areas such as large scale classification, neural language modeling and recommendation systems. However, softmax estimation is very expensive for large scale inference bec…
New linear algorithms improve wSVMs for multiclass probability estimation.
problem Estimating conditional probabilities for multiclass problems.
method Proposed baseline learning and OVA learning schemes to improve wSVMs.
result Linear algorithms achieve optimal computational efficiency and good estimation accuracy.
We study a sparse negative binomial regression (NBR) for count data by showing the non-asymptotic advantages of using the elastic-net estimator. Two types of oracle inequalities are derived for the NBR's elastic-net estimates by using the Compatibility Factor Condition and the Stabil Condition. The second type of oracl…
The paper provides bounds for LSA with fixed stepsizes under random estimates.
problem Analyzing the performance of LSA algorithms with fixed stepsize.
method Non-asymptotic analysis based on new results about matrix moments and high probability bounds.
result Derives high probability bounds on LSA performance under weaker conditions than previous works.
The paper optimizes distribution estimation with high probability in Kullback-Leibler divergence.
problem Estimating discrete distributions with high probability in Kullback-Leibler divergence.
method Uses online learning techniques for novel estimator construction via online-to-batch conversion.
result Optimal rate of estimation is pinned down up to a doubly logarithmic factor of K.
Method fuses low and high-resolution data for better health estimates.
problem Improving high-resolution health estimates from mixed data sources.
method Fusion of unbiased low-resolution and potentially biased high-resolution data, learning a distribution consistent with sampling bias.
result Significant reduction in bias in high-resolution estimates.
Probability density estimation is a classical and well studied problem, but standard density estimation methods have historically lacked the power to model complex and high-dimensional image distributions. More recent generative models leverage the power of neural networks to implicitly learn and represent probability …
One of the fundamental problems in machine learning is the estimation of a probability distribution from data. Many techniques have been proposed to study the structure of data, most often building around the assumption that observations lie on a lower-dimensional manifold of high probability. It has been more difficul…
This paper studies sparse density estimation via ℓ1 penalization (SPADES). We focus on estimation in high-dimensional mixture models and nonparametric adaptive density estimation. We show, respectively, that SPADES can recover, with high probability, the unknown components of a mixture of probability densities an…
Dynamic Vocabulary Pruning stabilizes LLM training by removing low-probability tokens.
problem Training Large Language Models (LLMs) with Reinforcement Learning (RL) causes numerical divergence between inference and training.
method Dynamic Vocabulary Pruning (DVP) constrains the RL objective to a safe vocabulary that excludes low-probability tokens.
result DVP stabilizes training by reducing systematic bias introduced by the extreme tail of the token distribution.
New method improves sampling from high-dimensional target densities.
problem Sampling from high-dimensional target densities using Monte Carlo algorithms.
method Extends Metropolis-Adjusted Langevin Diffusion algorithm with random precondition matrix modeling.
result Significantly improves performance and computational efficiency over standard MCMC methods.
This paper rigorously establishes that the existence of the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) in high-dimensional logistic regression models with Gaussian covariates undergoes a sharp `phase transition'. We introduce an explicit boundary curve hMLE, parameterized by two scalars measuring the overall magnitu…
The study shows how to accurately estimate embedding vectors in high dimensions.
problem How to accurately estimate embedding vectors in high-dimensional spaces.
method A simple probability model and a variant of low-rank approximate message passing (AMP) method.
result The AMP approach enables precise predictions of the accuracy of the estimation in certain high-dimensional limits.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Develops high-probability minimax quantile bounds for statistical problems.
problem Statistical procedures often lose information about tail behavior when reduced to expectations.
method Introduces minimax quantiles, develops high-probability variants of minimax methods, and converts risk lower bounds to quantile lower bounds.
result Obtains high-probability minimax quantile lower bounds for various statistical problems.
New method bounds stochastic subgradient methods with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Bounding stochastic subgradient methods under heavy-tailed noise.
method Clipped version of projected stochastic subgradient method.
result Near optimal any-time and finite horizon bounds for averaging schemes.
Estimates high-dimensional posterior densities by marginal distributions and neural networks.
problem High-dimensional probability density estimation for inference is difficult.
method Direct estimation of lower-dimensional marginal distributions, using Moment Networks for fast computation of moments.
result Demonstrates estimation of gravitational wave time series and applications in cosmology.
This paper presents a method to efficiently estimate rare event probabilities using a combination of high and low-fidelity models.
problem Estimating the probability of failure for complex systems using high-fidelity models is expensive and inaccurate for rare events.
method The paper introduces a multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy using active learning and subset simulation to merge high and low-fidelity models.
result The method significantly reduces computational cost while maintaining high accuracy in estimating rare event probabilities.
Proposes novel wSVMs for sparse learning and accurate probability estimation.
problem Sparse features with redundant noise limit the performance of existing wSVMs.
method Develops ℓ1-norm and elastic net regularized wSVMs for automatic variable selection and probability estimation. result Elastic net regularized wSVMs achieve superior performance in variable selection and probability estimation.
New algorithms achieve high-probability parameter-free regret in online convex optimization with heavy-tailed data.
problem Achieving high-probability parameter-free regret in online convex optimization with heavy-tailed data.
method Developed new regularization techniques to handle exponentially large iterates and heavy-tailed subgradients.
result Achieved regret bound of O(∥u∥T1/plog(1/δ)) with high probability for subgradients with bounded pth moments. Proposes a new method for high-dimensional density estimation.
problem Estimating high-dimensional probability density functions efficiently.
method Tensorizing flow method combining tensor-train and flow-based generative modeling.
result Efficiently constructs an approximate density in tensor-train form and trains a flow model to match empirical distribution.
We consider learning high-dimensional multi-response linear models with structured parameters. By exploiting the noise correlations among responses, we propose an alternating estimation (AltEst) procedure to estimate the model parameters based on the generalized Dantzig selector. Under suitable sample size and resampli…
Transformer with denoising diffusion improves probabilistic density estimation.
problem Estimating non-Gaussian and multimodal probability distributions for regression problems.
method Training a denoising diffusion head on top of a Transformer model.
result The model provides reasonable probability density estimation for high-dimensional inputs.
New method improves ensemble inference for high-class tasks.
problem High inference costs for ensemble models.
method Proxy-Dirichlet target to minimize reverse KL-divergence.
result Resolves gradient issues for large-scale classification tasks.