We consider the setting of linear regression in high dimension. We focus on the problem of constructing adaptive and honest confidence sets for the sparse parameter θ, i.e. we want to construct a confidence set for theta that contains theta with high probability, and that is as small as possible. The l_2 diameter of a …
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48 results for “high confidence”
Develops a method to find costly high-confidence errors in black box models.
problem Finding rare high-confidence errors missed by random sampling.
method Adversarial perturbation-guided search technique to find errors at rates greater than expected given model confidence.
result Our Adversarial Distance search discovers high-confidence errors at a rate greater than expected given model confidence.
Paper defines and solves a problem in representation learning to ensure fairness with high confidence.
problem Learning fair representations with high confidence guarantees for all downstream tasks.
method Formally defines the problem, introduces FRG framework, proves high probability fairness, and demonstrates effectiveness empirically.
result FRG framework provides high-confidence guarantees for limiting unfairness across all downstream models and tasks.
Develops methods for estimating and providing confidence bands in sparse high-dimensional additive models.
problem Estimating and providing reliable confidence bands for nonparametric components in high-dimensional additive models.
method Integrates sieve estimation into a high-dimensional Z-estimation framework, employing a multiplier bootstrap procedure.
result Constructs uniformly valid confidence bands for the target component in sparse high-dimensional additive models.
New method gives high confidence bounds for stochastic convex optimization with minimal overhead.
problem Rare high probability guarantees in stochastic convex optimization.
method ProxBoost algorithm combining robust distance estimation and proximal point method.
result Wide class of stochastic optimization algorithms can achieve high confidence bounds with logarithmic and polylogarithmic overhead.
Classifiers used in the wild, in particular for safety-critical systems, should not only have good generalization properties but also should know when they don't know, in particular make low confidence predictions far away from the training data. We show that ReLU type neural networks which yield a piecewise linear cla…
A new method for predicting with confidence for complex models.
problem Lack of reliable confidence in high-stake decision-making models.
method Developed a full-CP for sparse high-order interaction model using homotopy mining.
result SHIM achieves comparable accuracy to complex models and superior statistical power.
Efficient method for high confidence level inference using parallel stochastic optimization.
problem Uncertainty quantification for online estimation.
method Small number of independent multi-runs to construct t-based confidence intervals.
result Rigorous theoretical guarantee for exact coverage of confidence intervals.
New method provides reliable high-confidence prediction intervals for high-impact events.
problem High-impact events require very high confidence prediction intervals, but classical methods provide uninformative intervals.
method Bridge extreme value statistics and conformal prediction to provide reliable and informative prediction intervals.
result Provides reliable and informative prediction intervals with high-confidence coverage.
Confidence-based filtering reveals latent structure in diffusion models.
problem Unclear latent structure in diffusion models.
method Confidence scores from a classifier.
result Class-relevant latent structure emerges under confidence-based filtering.
Model shows how past consumption affects household confidence, leading to varied economic outcomes.
problem Exploring how past consumption impacts current confidence and economic activity in a multi-household model.
method Developed a DSGE model where past consumption influences individual household confidence and consumption propensity.
result The model demonstrates a range of economic outcomes including high output with no crises, high output with increased volatility, and alternation of high and low output states.
Paper proposes sparse classification method for high-dimensional data.
problem Sparse classification in high-dimensional data with positive-confidence samples.
method Developed a novel sparse-penalization framework using L1, SCAD, and MCP penalties for convex and non-convex shrinkage.
result Proved near minimax-optimal sparse recovery rates under Restricted Strong Convexity condition.
In the field of reinforcement learning there has been recent progress towards safety and high-confidence bounds on policy performance. However, to our knowledge, no practical methods exist for determining high-confidence policy performance bounds in the inverse reinforcement learning setting---where the true reward fun…
New flexible confidence sequences for robust statistical inference.
problem Creating robust statistical inference methods that work under mild assumptions.
method Proposed a new class of asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences.
result Sharp asymptotic time-uniform confidence sequences achieved under mild assumptions.
Algorithm constructs confidence sets for deep neural networks with PAC guarantees.
problem Ensuring reliable predictions for deep neural networks with high confidence.
method Combines calibrated prediction and learning theory bounds.
result Constructs PAC confidence sets for various deep models.
New method HNCI for evaluating treatment effects in network interference.
problem Evaluating the effectiveness of treatments or policies under network interference.
method High-dimensional network causal inference (HNCI) using linear regression with latent homogeneity.
result Valid confidence intervals and sets for average direct treatment effect and neighborhood size.
This paper proposes a decorrelation-based approach to test hypotheses and construct confidence intervals for the low dimensional component of high dimensional proportional hazards models. Motivated by the geometric projection principle, we propose new decorrelated score, Wald and partial likelihood ratio statistics. Wi…
In this article the package High-dimensional Metrics (\texttt{hdm}) is introduced. It is a collection of statistical methods for estimation and quantification of uncertainty in high-dimensional approximately sparse models. It focuses on providing confidence intervals and significance testing for (possibly many) low-dim…
Develops a new method for uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional learning.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification in high-dimensional regression or learning problems.
method Data-driven approach for UQ that corrects bias terms from training data.
result Non-asymptotic confidence intervals that avoid overestimating uncertainty.
Paper develops methods for PCA inference with missing data and heteroskedastic noise.
problem Constructing confidence regions for PCA in high dimensions with missing data and heteroskedastic noise.
method Proposes HeteroPCA and develops non-asymptotic distributional guarantees for valid inference.
result Valid inference on principal subspace and spiked covariance matrix with missing data.
A new classifier method detects out-of-distribution samples by minimizing KL divergence.
problem Detecting out-of-distribution samples in neural networks.
method Training a confident-classifier by minimizing KL divergence and maximizing entropy, or adding a reject class.
result The confident-classifier still yields high confidence for OOD samples far from the in-distribution.
The paper tackles high-dimensional mixed linear regression with unknown parameters and proposes methods for estimation, confidence intervals, and hypothesis testing.
problem High-dimensional mixed linear regression with unknown parameters and covariance structure.
method Iterative high-dimensional EM algorithm for estimating regression vectors, debiased estimators for individual coordinates, and large-scale multiple testing procedure.
result Asymptotic normality of debiased estimators and FDR control for hypothesis testing.
Waldo method constructs valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference.
problem Constructing valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference with high-dimensional data.
method Reframes Wald test statistic and uses regression-based machinery for Neyman inversion.
result Waldo method produces conditionally valid and precise confidence regions.
Estimating the value function for a fixed policy is a fundamental problem in reinforcement learning. Policy evaluation algorithms---to estimate value functions---continue to be developed, to improve convergence rates, improve stability and handle variability, particularly for off-policy learning. To understand the prop…
CoinDICE estimates confidence intervals for unknown behavior policies in reinforcement learning.
problem Estimating value of a target policy using only behavior policy data.
method Function space embedding, generalized empirical likelihood method, Lagrangian optimization.
result Valid confidence intervals with tighter and more accurate estimates than existing methods.
Paper develops a BERT-based classifier to reduce pathology report annotation workload.
problem Manual annotation of pathology reports is labor-intensive and time-consuming.
method Developed an automatic text classifier using BERT and introduced a human-centric metric to identify low-confidence cases.
result The model reduces manual annotation workload by 80% to 98%.
We shrink confidence sets for equivalent discrete distributions using permutation equivalence.
problem Building high-probability confidence sets for equivalent discrete distributions.
method Exploiting permutation-equivalence to refine confidence sets.
result Confidence sets shrink at asymptotic rates of and .
Algorithm finds small confidence sets for arbitrary distributions.
problem Learning high-density regions in arbitrary distributions.
method Competitive with sets from a concept class with bounded VC-dimension.
result Algorithm finds a confidence set with volume competitive with optimal ball.
Proposes sparsified intervals for high-dimensional regression coefficients.
problem Challenges of high-dimensional regression coefficient inference.
method Sparsified simultaneous confidence intervals.
result Intervals can shrink some coefficients to zero, indicating unimportance.
Bayesian approach calibrates DNN confidence for field use.
problem DNN models give false predictions with high confidence in real-world applications.
method Bayesian approach using Gaussian Process Regression to correct confidence with minimal labeled operation data.
result Significantly reduces high-confidence errors with minimal labeled data.
Develops a method to define admissible rewards for robust policy evaluation in RL.
problem Defining a reward function for robust off-policy evaluation in RL with limited data.
method Identifies an admissible set of reward functions ensuring policies are close to past behavior and can be evaluated with high confidence.
result Demonstrates the approach on synthetic and real-world domains, including a critical care application.
We develop an efficient algorithm to find confidence ellipsoids with volume guarantees in high dimensions.
problem Finding robust confidence ellipsoids in high-dimensional data.
method Polynomial time algorithm using primal-dual structure and geometric Brascamp-Lieb inequality.
result Algorithm finds ellipsoids within a volume factor of best -conditioned ellipsoid.
The package High-dimensional Metrics (\Rpackage{hdm}) is an evolving collection of statistical methods for estimation and quantification of uncertainty in high-dimensional approximately sparse models. It focuses on providing confidence intervals and significance testing for (possibly many) low-dimensional subcomponents…
It has been suggested that adversarial examples cause deep learning models to make incorrect predictions with high confidence. In this work, we take the opposite stance: an overly confident model is more likely to be vulnerable to adversarial examples. This work is one of the most proactive approaches taken to date, as…
Paper proposes efficient data-driven confidence bands for distributed nonparametric regression.
problem High computational complexity in nonparametric regression for large datasets.
method Divide and conquer approach, averaging local estimates, with data-driven uncertainty quantification.
result Frequentist -confidence bands and minimax-optimal high-probability bounds for averaged estimator.
We propose a new inferential framework for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses in statistical models specified by a system of high dimensional estimating equations. We construct an influence function by projecting the fitted estimating equations to a sparse direction obtained by solving a large-scale…
Mutual teaching improves graph models with less labeled data.
problem Training graph models with limited labeled data.
method Dual model training with mutual teaching strategy.
result Significant performance improvement with less labeled data.
Study finds root vertex in large networks with high probability.
problem Finding the root vertex in large growing networks.
method Constructs confidence sets for the root vertex in various random network models.
result Confidence sets of size independent of the number of vertices contain the root vertex with high probability.
New method for rigorous confidence intervals in off-policy evaluation.
problem Evaluate new policies from off-policy data without executing them.
method Variational framework using kernel Bellman loss.
result Efficient method for tight confidence intervals in various settings.
The paper shows over-confidence in models isn't just due to over-parametrization.
problem Over-confidence in machine learning models, especially in binary classification.
method Theoretical analysis of logistic regression and other binary classification problems.
result Logistic regression is inherently over-confident in certain settings, but over-confidence is not always the case.
Deep neural networks are easily fooled high confidence predictions for adversarial samples
This paper proposes a unified framework to quantify local and global inferential uncertainty for high dimensional nonparanormal graphical models. In particular, we consider the problems of testing the presence of a single edge and constructing a uniform confidence subgraph. Due to the presence of unknown marginal trans…
For an autonomous agent, executing a poor policy may be costly or even dangerous. For such agents, it is desirable to determine confidence interval lower bounds on the performance of any given policy without executing said policy. Current methods for exact high confidence off-policy evaluation that use importance sampl…
Variance Reduction and Low Sample Complexity in Stochastic Optimization via Proximal Point Methodmath.OC
New method reduces variance in stochastic optimization with high confidence.
problem Achieving high-probability guarantees in stochastic optimization with weaker noise assumptions.
method Stochastic proximal point method combining proximal subproblem solver and probability booster.
result Demonstrates convergence with low sample complexity under bounded variance assumptions.
New method constructs confidence sets for GLMs via game theory.
problem Developing reliable confidence intervals for GLM parameters.
method Reduction to sequential prediction games with low regret.
result Online-to-confidence-set conversions provide new types of intervals.
This paper introduces a new method for uncertainty quantification in prediction models.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in high-stakes applications like medicine and finance.
method Confidence sets for outcome excursions, focusing on identifying subsets of features where outcomes exceed a threshold.
result Theoretical guarantees for the probability that confidence sets contain the true feature subset, both asymptotically and for finite sample sizes.
We present a confidence-based single-layer feed-forward learning algorithm SPIRAL (Spike Regularized Adaptive Learning) relying on an encoding of activation spikes. We adaptively update a weight vector relying on confidence estimates and activation offsets relative to previous activity. We regularize updates proportion…
Bayes-TrEx finds in-distribution examples for model inspection.
problem Challenges in interpreting neural networks, especially high-confidence failures and ambiguous classifications.
method Bayesian sampling approach to find in-distribution examples with specified prediction confidence.
result Bayes-TrEx enables more flexible holistic model analysis than just inspecting the test set.