End-to-end deep model for coherent probabilistic forecasts in hierarchical time series.
problem Hierarchical probabilistic forecasting for coherent predictions.
method Dirichlet proportions model for learning root and child distributions.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines (up to 26%).
Improves sampling from complex hierarchical models using HMC and automatic marginalization.
problem Sampling from complex hierarchical models is difficult for HMC.
method Proposes automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL.
result Significantly improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.
t-NEB clusters high-dimensional data hierarchically with density paths.
problem Hierarchical clustering struggles with high-dimensional data.
method t-NEB uses density estimation, maximum density paths, and probabilistic merging.
result t-NEB yields state-of-the-art clustering performance on high-dimensional data.
Study compares forecasting methods for distribution grid loads.
problem Improving load prediction accuracy in distribution grids.
method Evaluation of probabilistic forecasting techniques on distribution grid load prediction.
result Hierarchical techniques enhance bottom-level forecast accuracy.
A new method for Bayesian neural networks using probabilistic backpropagation.
problem Approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian neural networks.
method Variational Expectation Propagation (VEP) with probabilistic backpropagation.
result Efficient algorithm for approximate integration over posterior distributions.
This paper improves PPCA robustness using t-distributions.
problem Improving robustness of probabilistic PCA.
method Using multivariate t-distributions and a hierarchical model. result Clarified the correct correspondence between the multivariate t-PPCA framework and the hierarchical model. HPPCA improves imputation of longitudinal data with missing values.
problem Handling incomplete, high-dimensional longitudinal data with nested sources of variation and temporal dependency.
method Hierarchical probabilistic principal component analysis (HPPCA) with a two-level latent factor model and Gaussian process.
result HPPCA outperforms standard PPCA and multivariate functional PCA in imputation accuracy, even under heavy missingness and model misspecification.
Study on bias-variance trade-off in hierarchical models with higher-order interactions.
problem Understanding the bias-variance trade-off in hierarchical probabilistic models with higher-order interactions.
method Proposed an efficient inference algorithm using Gibbs sampling and annealed importance sampling for log-linear higher-order Boltzmann machine.
result Higher-order interactions produce less variance for smaller sample size and comparable error with hidden layers.
Deep learning method for comparing hierarchical models.
problem Intractability of Bayesian model comparison for hierarchical models.
method Amortized inference deep learning method for probabilistic programs.
result Excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings.
Graph-EFM models weather uncertainty with graph-based ensembles.
problem Accurately capturing forecast uncertainty in chaotic weather.
method Flexible latent-variable formulation with hierarchical graph construction.
result Graph-EFM ensembles achieve equivalent or lower errors than deterministic models.
InferPy simplifies probabilistic modeling with deep neural networks in Python.
problem Complex probabilistic models with deep neural networks.
method User-friendly API for defining, learning, and evaluating models.
result Compact and simple way to define general hierarchical probabilistic models.
Unified theory for neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
problem Understanding neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
method Probabilistic context-free grammars and power-law distributed production rules.
result Unified learning curve behavior for classification and next-token prediction tasks.
Probabilistic label trees improve XMLC by organizing labels hierarchically.
problem Efficiently tagging instances with a small subset of relevant labels from a large pool.
method Introduce and analyze probabilistic label trees (PLTs) as a generalization of hierarchical softmax for multi-label problems.
result PLTs are consistent for various performance metrics and can be trained online without prior knowledge.
We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for interpretable priors and principled quantification of hierarchical uncertainty. W…
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
problem Creating probabilistic predictions for large-scale data.
method Approximates leaf weights as random variables, learns moments via stochastic tree ensemble update equations.
result PGBM offers significant speedup and accuracy improvements over existing methods.
A new Bayesian model improves forecasting for intermittent demand.
problem Sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence in intermittent demand forecasting.
method Hierarchical Bayesian TSB model with partial pooling and calibrated probabilistic configuration.
result TSB-HB achieves the lowest RMSE and RMSSE on the UCI Online Retail dataset.
Community detection has been an active research area for decades. Among all probabilistic models, Stochastic Block Model has been the most popular one. This paper introduces a novel probabilistic model: RW-HDP, based on random walks and Hierarchical Dirichlet Process, for community extraction. In RW-HDP, random walks c…
In this paper, computer-based techniques for stylistic analysis of paintings are applied to the five panels of the 14th century Peruzzi Altarpiece by Giotto di Bondone. Features are extracted by combining a dual-tree complex wavelet transform with a hidden Markov tree (HMT) model. Hierarchical clustering is used to ide…
Researchers develop methods for inference in hierarchical models using neural simulations.
problem Inference in hierarchical models with intractable likelihoods.
method Construct neural estimators for likelihood-ratio or posterior, accounting for hierarchical structure.
result Explicitly accounting for hierarchical structure leads to tighter parameter constraints.
A new method for blind source separation using hierarchical structure and KL divergence.
problem Blind source separation of complex interacting signals.
method Hierarchical log-linear model with KL divergence minimization.
result Superior performance compared to existing techniques on images and time series data.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are on the road. To safely and efficiently interact with other road participants, AVs have to accurately predict the behavior of surrounding vehicles and plan accordingly. Such prediction should be probabilistic, to address the uncertainties in human behavior. Such prediction should also be in…
CDEFs reduce model complexity and uncover time correlations.
problem Model complexity and data efficiency in probabilistic modeling.
method Builds on deep exponential families, ties weights for reduced parameters.
result CDEFs uncover time correlations with fewer parameters.
The paper proposes blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for hierarchical time series forecasting.
problem Point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series.
method A blending methodology of gradient boosted trees and neural networks, with feature engineering and diverse model selection.
result Ranked within the gold medal range in both Accuracy and Uncertainty tracks of the M5 Competition.
Two new Hie-TAN and Hie-TAN-Lite algorithms improve TAN for hierarchical feature spaces.
problem Learning dependencies in hierarchical feature spaces.
method Exploits hierarchical parent-child relationships as constraints to learn a dependency tree.
result Hie-TAN-Lite outperforms Hie-TAN and other methods in predictive accuracy.
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
problem Ensuring coherence in forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Bottom-Up Importance Sampling algorithm for any type of forecast distribution.
result Significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts in experiments.
A method for efficient CV estimates in Bayesian hierarchical models.
problem Computational infeasibility of cross-validation in Bayesian hierarchical regression models.
method Conditioning on variance-covariance parameters to transform CV into an optimization problem.
result Equivalent or improved predictive estimates compared to full cross-validation.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
problem Uncertainty in short-term electricity generation from renewable assets.
method Probabilistic framework with asset calibration, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussianization.
result Full uncertainty quantification at asset and collection levels.
New neural network models speed up Bayesian multilevel modeling.
problem Complex computational challenges in Bayesian multilevel modeling.
method Probabilistic neural network architectures that leverage multilevel model factorization.
result Efficient posterior inference on unseen datasets with near-instant results.
PALM learns abstract models for efficient planning and task transfer.
problem Efficiently learning and transferring hierarchical models for planning.
method PALM uses a new formal structure (L-AMDP) to learn independent, modular models at multiple levels of abstraction.
result PALM integrates planning and execution, facilitating rapid learning of abstract models.
Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures a…
In this paper we introduce ZhuSuan, a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. ZhuSuan is built upon Tensorflow. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural netw…
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class…
New clustering method recovers hidden tree structure from data.
problem Recovering hidden hierarchical structure in data.
method Maximum average dot product for merging clusters in hierarchical clustering.
result The algorithm produces a tree that accurately represents the underlying generative hierarchical structure.
This paper revisits the problem of analyzing multiple ratings given by different judges. Different from previous work that focuses on distilling the true labels from noisy crowdsourcing ratings, we emphasize gaining diagnostic insights into our in-house well-trained judges. We generalize the well-known DawidSkene model…
Physicists use quantum models to describe the behavior of physical systems. Quantum models owe their success to their interpretability, to their relation to probabilistic models (quantization of classical models) and to their high predictive power. Beyond physics, these properties are valuable in general data science. …
d3p package enables efficient Bayesian inference with differential privacy.
problem Efficiently performing Bayesian inference under differential privacy constraints.
method Differentially private variational inference for flexible probabilistic models.
result Achieves significant speed-up in runtime for complex models.
HEBAE improves VAEs by adaptively balancing reconstruction and regularization.
problem Posterior collapse in VAEs leading to over-regularization and poor latent encoding.
method Hierarchical Empirical Bayes approach to probabilistic generative models.
result HEBAE generates higher quality samples with better FID scores.
New model addresses instability in hierarchical clustering of social networks.
problem Instability in existing hierarchical clustering algorithms for social networks.
method Introduce T-Stochastic Graphs, a probabilistic model that relaxes ultrametric assumptions. result Prove spectral approach combining Neighbor-Joining is statistically consistent.
Automates model comparison in probabilistic programming.
problem Manual derivations for model comparison are error-prone and time-consuming.
method Message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node.
result Automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination.
Bayesian hierarchical clustering (BHC) is an agglomerative clustering method, where a probabilistic model is defined and its marginal likelihoods are evaluated to decide which clusters to merge. While BHC provides a few advantages over traditional distance-based agglomerative clustering algorithms, successive evaluatio…
Improved hierarchical discrete VAEs for better stability and performance.
problem Training stable and efficient hierarchical discrete VAEs with numerous latent variables.
method Introducing Relaxed-Responsibility Vector-Quantisation to parameterise discrete latent variables in a hierarchical structure.
result Achieved state-of-the-art bits-per-dim results for various standard datasets.
HIRM models noisy, sparse, heterogeneous relational data using hierarchical clustering and Dirichlet processes.
problem Modeling noisy, sparse, and heterogeneous relational data.
method Hierarchical Chinese restaurant process and Dirichlet process mixture for clustering and modeling relation values.
result HIRM generalizes standard models and discovers relational structure in real-world datasets.
We propose a practical and scalable Gaussian process model for large-scale nonlinear probabilistic regression. Our mixture-of-experts model is conceptually simple and hierarchically recombines computations for an overall approximation of a full Gaussian process. Closed-form and distributed computations allow for effici…
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in continuous latent-space models.
method Continuous mixtures of tractable probabilistic models with finite integration points.
result Hybrid models achieve state-of-the-art performance in density estimation.
Transformer models perform slower than convolutional networks in learning hierarchical language structures.
problem Understanding how neural networks learn hierarchical language structures.
method Theoretical scaling laws and empirical validation of neural network performance.
result Convolutional networks outperform transformers in learning hierarchical language structures.
A new method learns hierarchical EBM models with diffusion schemes.
problem Challenges in learning EBM models with multi-modal distributions.
method Proposes a diffusion probabilistic scheme to learn EBM models in hierarchical latent spaces.
result Demonstrates superior performance on various tasks with diffusion-learned EBM.
For bidirectional joint image-text modeling, we develop variational hetero-encoder (VHE) randomized generative adversarial network (GAN), a versatile deep generative model that integrates a probabilistic text decoder, probabilistic image encoder, and GAN into a coherent end-to-end multi-modality learning framework. VHE…
Probabilistic models with discrete latent variables naturally capture datasets composed of discrete classes. However, they are difficult to train efficiently, since backpropagation through discrete variables is generally not possible. We present a novel method to train a class of probabilistic models with discrete late…