Bayesian Hierarchical Invariant Prediction refines ICP for better scalability and prior integration.
problem Improving computational scalability and invariance testing for causal inference.
method Bayesian Hierarchical structure to test invariance under heterogeneous data.
result Demonstrated improved scalability and potential as an alternative to ICP.
New algorithms for hierarchical classification using conformal prediction.
problem Valid prediction sets in hierarchical classification tasks.
method Extended split conformal prediction framework with two inference algorithms.
result Empirical evaluations show effectiveness in achieving nominal coverage.
HCC extends conformal prediction to handle class hierarchies, improving prediction reliability.
problem Uncertainty quantification in classification models with class hierarchy considerations.
method Formulates HCC as a constrained optimization problem, ensuring coverage guarantees with a smaller subset of candidate solutions.
result HCC produces more reliable prediction sets by leveraging class hierarchy information.
The study improves prediction regions for hierarchical data using a projection step.
problem Improving prediction regions for hierarchical multivariate data.
method Integrating a projection step in the split conformal prediction (SCP) procedure to reduce prediction regions.
result The resulting prediction regions are globally smaller under both joint and component-wise coverage objectives.
Improved prediction of hierarchical time series using structured regularization.
problem Making coherent forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Structured regularization method for bottom-level time series predictions.
result Superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to previous methods.
HapNet predicts marketing campaign effects using a hierarchical structure.
problem Complex and challenging effect prediction for marketing campaigns.
method Hierarchical Capsule Prediction Network (HapNet).
result HapNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods in both synthetic and real data.
Two new Hie-TAN and Hie-TAN-Lite algorithms improve TAN for hierarchical feature spaces.
problem Learning dependencies in hierarchical feature spaces.
method Exploits hierarchical parent-child relationships as constraints to learn a dependency tree.
result Hie-TAN-Lite outperforms Hie-TAN and other methods in predictive accuracy.
Paper proposes a new method for predicting DER adoption with hierarchical guarantees.
problem Accurately predicting DER adoption in electric grids with uncertainty and spatial disparity.
method Multivariate Hawkes process for modeling DER adoption dynamics and split conformal prediction algorithm for hierarchical validity.
result Empirical evaluation shows superior predictive accuracy and uncertainty calibration compared to existing methods.
This work tackles long-term visual planning by goal-conditioned hierarchical predictors.
problem Current learning approaches fail on long-horizon tasks due to lack of goal information and coarse-to-fine planning.
method Formulate goal-conditioned predictors (GCPs) and hierarchical models to predict trajectories between observations.
result GCPs enable effective long-term planning with much longer horizons than before.
Novel graph network learns hierarchical network structure.
problem Lack of information in hierarchical network topology.
method Hierarchical clustering for multiscale decomposition, graph convolutional layers.
result Competitive performance on citation network benchmark.
Paper uses HGNN to predict stock types from relationships and temporal data.
problem Predicting stock types from complex market data.
method Integrates stock relationships and temporal data using HGNN.
result Effective prediction of stock types with HGNN model.
Paper relaxes set-valued prediction in hierarchical classification by considering representation complexity.
problem Uncertainty in class labels in hierarchical multi-class classification problems.
method Introduces representation complexity for predicted sets, proposes three methods for inference.
result Recursive tree search method is computationally more efficient.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are on the road. To safely and efficiently interact with other road participants, AVs have to accurately predict the behavior of surrounding vehicles and plan accordingly. Such prediction should be probabilistic, to address the uncertainties in human behavior. Such prediction should also be in…
A method for efficient CV estimates in Bayesian hierarchical models.
problem Computational infeasibility of cross-validation in Bayesian hierarchical regression models.
method Conditioning on variance-covariance parameters to transform CV into an optimization problem.
result Equivalent or improved predictive estimates compared to full cross-validation.
BiHRNN predicts inflation by leveraging hierarchical structure and bidirectional RNNs.
problem Accurate inflation forecasting is challenging due to dynamic factors and the layered structure of the Consumer Price Index.
method Bi-directional Hierarchical Recurrent Neural Network (BiHRNN) model that uses bidirectional information flow between levels and informative constraints on RNN parameters.
result BiHRNN significantly outperforms traditional RNN models in forecasting accuracy.
This work proposes optimal decision rules for hierarchical classifiers to better align with evaluation metrics.
problem Heuristic decision rules in hierarchical classification do not align with evaluation metrics.
method Derives optimal decision rules for various prediction settings, focusing on hierarchical hFβ scores. result Optimal decision rules enhance the performance and reliability of hierarchical classifiers.
Hierarchical-CPI improves variable importance measurement for medical data.
problem Limited interpretability of complex medical models.
method Hierarchical-CPI measures conditional variable importance with statistical control, handling correlated data.
result Hierarchical-CPI outperforms existing methods in medical datasets.
Sharp theory of neural network scaling laws for hierarchical targets.
problem Learning hierarchical multi-index models in neural networks.
method Sharp information-theoretic scaling laws derived for two-layer neural networks.
result Optimal rates achieved by a simple spectral estimator.
End-to-end deep model for coherent probabilistic forecasts in hierarchical time series.
problem Hierarchical probabilistic forecasting for coherent predictions.
method Dirichlet proportions model for learning root and child distributions.
result Significant improvements over state-of-the-art baselines (up to 26%).
A novel extrapolation method is proposed for longitudinal forecasting. A hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to combine nonlinear population change and individual memory of the past to make prediction. The prediction error is minimized through the hierarchical design. The method is further extended to joint mod…
Unified framework for hierarchical image classification with epistemic uncertainty.
problem Overconfident predictions and lack of logical consistency in deep learning models.
method Neurosymbolic approach with epistemic deep learning, using focal set reasoning and differentiable fuzzy logic.
result Maintains accuracy on par with transformer baselines while providing more calibrated and interpretable predictions.
BL learns interpretable optimization structures from data.
problem Learning interpretable optimization structures from data.
method BL parameterizes a compositional utility function from intrinsically interpretable modular blocks.
result BL supports architectures from single to hierarchical compositions, modeling hierarchical optimization structures.
Bayesian stacking improves model performance with varying model weights.
problem Improving model predictions with heterogeneous input performance.
method Bayesian hierarchical stacking with varying model weights inferred via Bayesian inference.
result Hierarchical stacking yields better predictions than linear averaging.
We introduce the Hierarchically Interacting Particle Neural Network (HIP-NN) to model molecular properties from datasets of quantum calculations. Inspired by a many-body expansion, HIP-NN decomposes properties, such as energy, as a sum over hierarchical terms. These terms are generated from a neural network--a composit…
This work introduces a method for visualizing high-dimensional posteriors using hierarchical tree-valued predictions.
problem Visualizing high-dimensional posterior distributions for complex problems like image restoration.
method A neural network predicts a tree-valued hierarchical summarization of the posterior distribution in a single forward pass.
result The method efficiently summarizes and visualizes posteriors, achieving comparable results to hierarchical clustering but at a much faster speed.
Hierarchical graph learning for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
problem Developing machine-learning methods for calendar spread strategies in commodity futures markets
method Proposing a hierarchical graph learning approach
result Outperforming benchmark models in both prediction and trading performance
Method learns hierarchical representations of samples and features simultaneously.
problem Hierarchical structures in samples and features not considered by existing methods.
method Jointly learns hierarchical representations via Tree-Wasserstein Distance alternating between samples and features.
result Method improves performance in link prediction and node classification tasks.
Study improves maize yield prediction using BNs with mixed-effects models.
problem Limited causal inference in agronomic data models.
method Integrates random effects into Bayesian networks, leveraging hierarchical data structure.
result Significantly reduces maize yield prediction error from 28% to 17%.
Unified theory for neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
problem Understanding neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
method Probabilistic context-free grammars and power-law distributed production rules.
result Unified learning curve behavior for classification and next-token prediction tasks.
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved impressive predictive performance due to their ability to learn complex, non-linear relationships between variables. However, the inability to effectively visualize these relationships has led to DNNs being characterized as black boxes and consequently limited their application…
This study addresses the issue of predicting the glaucomatous visual field loss from patient disease datasets. Our goal is to accurately predict the progress of the disease in individual patients. As very few measurements are available for each patient, it is difficult to produce good predictors for individuals. A rece…
SmallML predicts customer churn for SMEs with small data, improving accuracy by 24.2 points.
problem AI exclusion of SMEs due to data scale mismatch.
method Bayesian transfer learning with hierarchical pooling and conformal prediction.
result 96.7% AUC on 100 obs SMEs, 24.2 point improvement over logistic regression.
C-HMCNN(h) improves HMC classification by leveraging class hierarchy.
problem Hierarchical multi-label classification with class hierarchy constraints.
method Exploits class hierarchy to produce coherent predictions for multi-label classification.
result C-HMCNN(h) outperforms state-of-the-art models in HMC classification.
This paper improves hierarchical community detection efficiency using local structural properties.
problem Efficiency of hierarchical community detection methods in large networks.
method Use of local structural network properties as proxies to improve efficiency.
result Achieves competitive results in modularity with improved efficiency.
We compare various extensions of the Bradley-Terry model and a hierarchical Poisson log-linear model in terms of their performance in predicting the outcome of soccer matches (win, draw, or loss). The parameters of the Bradley-Terry extensions are estimated by maximizing the log-likelihood, or an appropriately penalize…
Time series prediction has been studied in a variety of domains. However, it is still challenging to predict future series given historical observations and past exogenous data. Existing methods either fail to consider the interactions among different components of exogenous variables which may affect the prediction ac…
HACSurv models dependencies between competing risks and censoring for improved survival analysis.
problem Inaccurate survival predictions due to ignoring dependencies between competing risks and censoring.
method HACSurv uses hierarchical Archimedean copulas to model dependencies and cause-specific survival functions.
result HACSurv improves accuracy in survival predictions and captures complex risk interactions.
This paper presents the hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) for loss reserving in a non-life insurance company. Because in this case the error of prediction is expressed by a complex analytical formula, the error bootstrap estimator is proposed instead. Moreover, the bootstrap procedure is used to obtain full …
HGNet improves GNNs' ability to handle long-range interactions in graphs.
problem Insufficiency of GNNs in capturing long-range interactions.
method Introduces hierarchical message passing models with multi-resolution graph representations.
result HGNet outperforms conventional GNNs in molecular property prediction.
HCL learns shared and modality-specific latent representations for multimodal data.
problem Binary shared-private decomposition inadequately represents shared information across subsets of modalities.
method Hierarchical Contrastive Learning framework combining latent-variable formulation, structural sparsity, and contrastive objective.
result HCL accurately recovers hierarchical structure and improves predictive performance on multimodal data.
New methods improve electricity load forecasting using hierarchical transfer learning.
problem Improving electricity load forecasts at national scale using smart meter data.
method Developed two hierarchical transfer learning methods based on stacking and aggregation of experts.
result Significant improvement in predictions compared to benchmark algorithms.
Diffusion models reveal latent hierarchical structure in data.
problem Quantitative measurement of data's hierarchical structure.
method Forward-backward experiments in diffusion models.
result Changes in latent variables manifest as correlated chunks in data.
Paper proposes a hierarchical approach for early anomaly detection in time series data for critical health events.
problem Early detection of critical health events in intensive care units.
method A layered learning architecture that breaks the problem into pre-conditional and event layers.
result The proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for critical health episode prediction.
Proposes a novel model for healthcare and SME credit risk prediction.
problem Lack of guidance from global view in sequence representation learning for time series modeling.
method Hierarchical Global View-guided (HGV) sequence representation learning framework with GGE and β-Attn modules. result Competitive prediction performance compared with other known baselines.
In this work, we take a representation learning perspective on hierarchical reinforcement learning, where the problem of learning lower layers in a hierarchy is transformed into the problem of learning trajectory-level generative models. We show that we can learn continuous latent representations of trajectories, which…
Recent work in learning ontologies (hierarchical and partially-ordered structures) has leveraged the intrinsic geometry of spaces of learned representations to make predictions that automatically obey complex structural constraints. We explore two extensions of one such model, the order-embedding model for hierarchical…
Analyzing and understanding the structure of complex relational data is important in many applications including analysis of the connectivity in the human brain. Such networks can have prominent patterns on different scales, calling for a hierarchically structured model. We propose two non-parametric Bayesian hierarchi…
Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analys…