A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.
Detects anomalies in multiple processes using hidden Markov models.
The paper introduces FMCI and hybrid decoding for hidden Markov models.
A novel RNN model with shuffled hidden states.
This paper tackles hidden state inference for HMMs using particle filtering.
Language models based on deep neural networks and traditional stochastic modelling have become both highly functional and effective in recent times. In this work, a general survey into the two types of language modelling is conducted. We investigate the effectiveness of the Hidden Markov Model (HMM), and the Long Short…
The study uses Bayesian Hidden Markov Models to predict cryptocurrency returns.
Pair Hidden Markov Models (PHMMs) are probabilistic models used for pairwise sequence alignment, a quintessential problem in bioinformatics. PHMMs include three types of hidden states: match, insertion and deletion. Most previous studies have used one or two hidden states for each PHMM state type. However, few studies …
As a new neural machine translation approach, Non-Autoregressive machine Translation (NAT) has attracted attention recently due to its high efficiency in inference. However, the high efficiency has come at the cost of not capturing the sequential dependency on the target side of translation, which causes NAT to suffer …
Infinite Hidden Markov Models (iHMM's) are an attractive, nonparametric generalization of the classical Hidden Markov Model which can automatically infer the number of hidden states in the system. However, due to the infinite-dimensional nature of transition dynamics performing inference in the iHMM is difficult. In th…
The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an event type, that may partially reveal the hidden state but itself emanates from a …
We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness allowing deviation from a canonical pattern of transitions and emissions, under the hy…
Direct approach for handling contextual bandits with latent state dynamics.
New method shows hidden state can significantly improve differential privacy in SGD.
Paper shows how to infer hidden states in neural networks analytically.
Reinforcement learning (RL) in Markov decision processes (MDPs) with large state spaces is a challenging problem. The performance of standard RL algorithms degrades drastically with the dimensionality of state space. However, in practice, these large MDPs typically incorporate a latent or hidden low-dimensional structu…
New MBL hidden Born machine learns various tasks.
A serious problem in learning probabilistic models is the presence of hidden variables. These variables are not observed, yet interact with several of the observed variables. Detecting hidden variables poses two problems: determining the relations to other variables in the model and determining the number of states of …
Deep networks have achieved impressive results across a variety of important tasks. However a known weakness is a failure to perform well when evaluated on data which differ from the training distribution, even if these differences are very small, as is the case with adversarial examples. We propose Fortified Networks,…
Paper presents a fast method for estimating hidden states in Bayesian models.
Machine learning promises methods that generalize well from finite labeled data. However, the brittleness of existing neural net approaches is revealed by notable failures, such as the existence of adversarial examples that are misclassified despite being nearly identical to a training example, or the inability of recu…
This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a posteriori state-persistence in particular. This paper also introduces a new Bayesian non…
Automatic methods for generating state-of-the-art neural network architectures without human experts have generated significant attention recently. This is because of the potential to remove human experts from the design loop which can reduce costs and decrease time to model deployment. Neural architecture search (NAS)…
We establish upper bounds for the minimal number of hidden units for which a binary stochastic feedforward network with sigmoid activation probabilities and a single hidden layer is a universal approximator of Markov kernels. We show that each possible probabilistic assignment of the states of output units, given t…
Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning multivariate time series. However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of its hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may not be able to model the complexities of a time series, while a large number of …
Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer scientists [17]. This paper gives an idea about the trend analysis of stock mar…
Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.
Modified asymmetric hidden Markov models for time series with autoregressive components.
New method infers hidden states in continuous-time phenomena better than traditional models.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide state-of-the-art performance in processing sequential data but are memory intensive to train, limiting the flexibility of RNN models which can be trained. Reversible RNNs---RNNs for which the hidden-to-hidden transition can be reversed---offer a path to reduce the memory require…
Recurrent neural networks' hidden state can be reconstructed from its past, providing a theoretical framework for stability and tracking.
Recurrent networks learn beliefs from history in partially observable environments.
New method estimates HMM hidden states efficiently.
We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of inferring human mobility on sub-daily time scales from, for example, mobile phone …
QATS efficiently decodes HMMs with polylogarithmic complexity.
The paper tackles estimation of hidden state LTI systems of unknown order.
This work speeds up fHMM analysis by tensor algebra.
This paper addresses the issue of model selection for hidden Markov models (HMMs). We generalize factorized asymptotic Bayesian inference (FAB), which has been recently developed for model selection on independent hidden variables (i.e., mixture models), for time-dependent hidden variables. As with FAB in mixture model…
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration hidden Markov models (EDHMM). EDHMMs are HMMs that have latent states consisting…
SWIFT learns intrinsic rewards from LLM hidden states for efficient best-of-N sampling.
Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.
This work introduces a tensor-based method to perform supervised classification on spatiotemporal data processed in an echo state network. Typically when performing supervised classification tasks on data processed in an echo state network, the entire collection of hidden layer node states from the training dataset is …
Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to perform inference in HSMMs. Unlike expectation maximization (EM), our approach cor…
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been drawing much attention with great success in many applications like speech recognition and neural machine translation. Long short-term memory (LSTM) is one of the most popular RNN units in deep learning applications. LSTM transforms the input and the previous hidden states to …
Study evaluates initialization strategies for infinite hidden Markov models.
Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HQMMs) can be thought of as quantum probabilistic graphical models that can model sequential data. We extend previous work on HQMMs with three contributions: (1) we show how classical hidden Markov models (HMMs) can be simulated on a quantum circuit, (2) we reformulate HQMMs by relaxing th…
Cubic spline smoothing improves interpolation between irregularly sampled data.
In this paper we present a model for the hidden Markovian bandit problem with linear rewards. As opposed to current work on Markovian bandits, we do not assume that the state is known to the decision maker before making the decision. Furthermore, we assume structural side information where the decision maker knows in a…