arXiv research

Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) are powerful tools of modeling sequential data. Learning FHMMs yields a challenging simultaneous model selection issue, i.e., selecting the number of multiple Markov chains and the dimensionality of each chain. Our main contribution is to address this model selection issue by exte…

Generalization is one of the most important issues in machine learning problems. In this study, we consider generalization in restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). We propose an RBM with multivalued hidden variables, which is a simple extension of conventional RBMs. We demonstrate that the proposed model is better than…

This paper introduces a novel model-based clustering approach for clustering time series which present changes in regime. It consists of a mixture of polynomial regressions governed by hidden Markov chains. The underlying hidden process for each cluster activates successively several polynomial regimes during time. The…

This paper addresses the issue of model selection for hidden Markov models (HMMs). We generalize factorized asymptotic Bayesian inference (FAB), which has been recently developed for model selection on independent hidden variables (i.e., mixture models), for time-dependent hidden variables. As with FAB in mixture model…

This paper tackles hidden state inference for HMMs using particle filtering.

This is a technical report which explores the estimation methodologies on hyper-parameters in Markov Random Field and Gaussian Hidden Markov Random Field. In first section, we briefly investigate a theoretical framework on Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Next, by using MH algorithm, we simulate the data from Ising model…

Cubic spline smoothing improves interpolation between irregularly sampled data.

CgNN uses network structure as IVs to estimate causal effects in networks.

Learning nonlinear dynamics from diffusion data is a challenging problem since the individuals observed may be different at different time points, generally following an aggregate behaviour. Existing work cannot handle the tasks well since they model such dynamics either directly on observations or enforce the availabi…

New method accounts for hidden context in preference learning for RLHF models.

Detects anomalies and locates their causes in large, high-dimensional data.

Territorial control is a key aspect shaping the dynamics of civil war. Despite its importance, we lack data on territorial control that are fine-grained enough to account for subnational spatio-temporal variation and that cover a large set of conflicts. To resolve this issue, we propose a theoretical model of the relat…

As a new neural machine translation approach, Non-Autoregressive machine Translation (NAT) has attracted attention recently due to its high efficiency in inference. However, the high efficiency has come at the cost of not capturing the sequential dependency on the target side of translation, which causes NAT to suffer …

Paper derives constraints for Bayesian Knowledge Tracing parameters.

New term ADS describes how machine learning can change user behavior.

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are notoriously difficult to train. When the eigenvalues of the hidden to hidden weight matrix deviate from absolute value 1, optimization becomes difficult due to the well studied issue of vanishing and exploding gradients, especially when trying to learn long-term dependencies. To cir…

Nearly all field theories suffer from singularities when particles are introduced. This is true in both classical and quantum physics. Classical field singularities result in the notorious self-force problem, where it is unknown how the dynamics of a particle change when the particle interacts with its own (self) field…

Study develops a new model for predicting individual mobility based on activity patterns.

CONE evaluates treatment assignment functions using networked observational data to mitigate hidden confounding bias.

PredPCA extracts key components for better time series prediction.

Polynomial-time algorithm learns ReLU networks without assumptions.

Paper proposes a new model and methods for robustly de-interleaving HMP mixtures.

Hidden Markov Models analyze mobile health data to identify APNS states.

We found hidden convexity in FPCA and developed a faster algorithm.

Unified techniques improve stability and replicability in changing data.

New algorithm improves volatility forecasting using Pairwise Markov Chains.

Cosine similarity can force points to grow in magnitude, causing convergence issues.

The cooperative hierarchical structure is a common and significant data structure observed in, or adopted by, many research areas, such as: text mining (author-paper-word) and multi-label classification (label-instance-feature). Renowned Bayesian approaches for cooperative hierarchical structure modeling are mostly bas…

There is a pressing need to build an architecture that could subsume these networks under a unified framework that achieves both higher performance and less overhead. To this end, two fundamental issues are yet to be addressed. The first one is how to implement the back propagation when neuronal activations are discret…

Continuous Hidden Markov Models for Equity Returns

Training deep neural networks is known to require a large number of training samples. However, in many applications only few training samples are available. In this work, we tackle the issue of training neural networks for classification task when few training samples are available. We attempt to solve this issue by pr…

Motivated by the unceasing interest in hidden Markov models (HMMs), this paper re-examines hidden path inference in these models, using primarily a risk-based framework. While the most common maximum a posteriori (MAP), or Viterbi, path estimator and the minimum error, or Posterior Decoder (PD), have long been around, …

Deep neural networks excel at learning the training data, but often provide incorrect and confident predictions when evaluated on slightly different test examples. This includes distribution shifts, outliers, and adversarial examples. To address these issues, we propose Manifold Mixup, a simple regularizer that encoura…

Traditional stock market prediction methods commonly only utilize the historical trading data, ignoring the fact that stock market fluctuations can be impacted by various other information sources such as stock related events. Although some recent works propose event-driven prediction approaches by considering the even…

GLFA improves latent factor analysis by incorporating graph structures for HiDS matrices.

Hidden cost: Smoothing shrinks decision boundaries, affecting class-wise accuracy.

We propose a novel {\it Equilibrated Recurrent Neural Network} (ERNN) to combat the issues of inaccuracy and instability in conventional RNNs. Drawing upon the concept of autapse in neuroscience, we propose augmenting an RNN with a time-delayed self-feedback loop. Our sole purpose is to modify the dynamics of each inte…

New method detects corporate fraud in noisy financial networks.

We present an efficient algorithm for learning mixed membership models when the number of variables $p$ is much larger than the number of hidden components $k$. This algorithm reduces the computational complexity of state-of-the-art tensor methods, which require decomposing an $O\left(p^3\right)$ tensor, to factorizing…

Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data and their hidden generation process, respectively. It has been pointed out that co…

The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling …

NADINE builds MLPs from streaming data, overcoming forgetting issues.

Great successes of deep neural networks have been witnessed in various real applications. Many algorithmic and implementation techniques have been developed, however, theoretical understanding of many aspects of deep neural networks is far from clear. A particular interesting issue is the usefulness of dropout, which w…

This paper introduces a new approach to finding knots and links with hidden symmetries using "hidden extensions", a class of hidden symmetries defined here. We exhibit a family of tangle complements in the ball whose boundaries have symmetries with hidden extensions, then we further extend these to hidden symmetries of…

The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for decades. Despite the fact that various NARX models have been developed, few of them ca…

spex-LVM infers interpretable latent factors from biomedical data.

The thesis models financial returns using mixtures of generalized normal distributions.

New RNN model handles long-term dependencies in irregularly-sampled time series.