arXiv research

Study examines dependence properties of Bayesian neural network units in finite-width networks.

Estimates dependent parameters using Markovian dependence with shrinkage.

Study tail risk aggregation under dependence uncertainty.

RBM models reveal how hidden unit tail behavior affects pattern reconstruction.

Direct approach for handling contextual bandits with latent state dynamics.

We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of inferring human mobility on sub-daily time scales from, for example, mobile phone …

Flood extent mapping plays a crucial role in disaster management and national water forecasting. Unfortunately, traditional classification methods are often hampered by the existence of noise, obstacles and heterogeneity in spectral features as well as implicit anisotropic spatial dependency across class labels. In thi…

Since learning is typically very slow in Boltzmann machines, there is a need to restrict connections within hidden layers. However, the resulting states of hidden units exhibit statistical dependencies. Based on this observation, we propose using $l_1/l_2$ regularization upon the activation possibilities of hidden unit…

Expands Hidden Markov Model to include Markov chain observations.

RBMs model binary interactions with hidden node activation effects.

A new HMM model captures kernel dependencies using context-specific Bayesian networks.

New method estimates hidden binary mixture model centers efficiently.

In this paper we solve the discrete time mean-variance hedging problem when asset returns follow a multivariate autoregressive hidden Markov model. Time dependent volatility and serial dependence are well established properties of financial time series and our model covers both. To illustrate the relevance of our propo…

Study spectral settings of generalized Laplacians on homogeneous spaces.

A new RNN model tackles long-time dependencies with fast, invertible, and memory-efficient hidden states.

Detect hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments.

Improved recurrent neural networks learn long-term dependencies through multi-scale memory.

The partially observable hidden Markov model is an extension of the hidden Markov Model in which the hidden state is conditioned on an independent Markov chain. This structure is motivated by the presence of discrete metadata, such as an event type, that may partially reveal the hidden state but itself emanates from a …

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are notoriously difficult to train. When the eigenvalues of the hidden to hidden weight matrix deviate from absolute value 1, optimization becomes difficult due to the well studied issue of vanishing and exploding gradients, especially when trying to learn long-term dependencies. To cir…

This paper addresses the issue of model selection for hidden Markov models (HMMs). We generalize factorized asymptotic Bayesian inference (FAB), which has been recently developed for model selection on independent hidden variables (i.e., mixture models), for time-dependent hidden variables. As with FAB in mixture model…

Working on the daily closing prices and logreturns, in this paper we deal with the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to forecast the price of the EUR/USD Futures. The aim of our work is to understand how the HMMs describe different financial time series depending on their structure. Subsequently, we analyse the foreca…

Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to perform inference in HSMMs. Unlike expectation maximization (EM), our approach cor…

The generic identification problem is to decide whether a stochastic process $(X_t)$ is a hidden Markov process and if yes to infer its parameters for all but a subset of parametrizations that form a lower-dimensional subvariety in parameter space. Partial answers so far available depend on extra assumptions on the pro…

The paper optimizes portfolios in a market with hidden drift and random expert opinions.

Study on the limits of learning HMM parameters under various conditions.

Study reveals properties of local minima in ReLU networks.

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) for time-dependent data. There are two challenges to applying SG-MCMC in this…

Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm for hidden Markov models, in a sequential data setting. Given a collapsed hidden Markov Model, we break its long M…

We study the sample complexity of learning one-hidden-layer convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with non-overlapping filters. We propose a novel algorithm called approximate gradient descent for training CNNs, and show that, with high probability, the proposed algorithm with random initialization grants a linear conve…

We consider a self-exciting counting process, the parameters of which depend on a hidden finite-state Markov chain. We derive the optimal filter and smoother for the hidden chain based on observation of the jump process. This filter is in closed form and is finite dimensional. We demonstrate the performance of this fil…

This paper compares HMM and LSTM for time series forecasting.

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), which are a powerful scheme for modeling temporal and sequential data need to capture long-term dependencies on datasets and represent them in hidden layers with a powerful model to capture more information from inputs. For modeling long-term dependencies in a dataset, the gating mecha…

Paper proposes a new HMM approach for better action recognition.

Optimal hidden-target learning for online inventory optimization on general convex sets.

Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or exchangeable data settings. We develop an SVI algorithm to learn the parameters of hi…

Algorithm adapts to shifting domains with minimal label queries.

This paper develops statistical models for cryptocurrency returns using hidden Markov regression and copulas.

Develops a new model to track financial market interconnectedness over time.

Non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHHMM) are a subclass of dependent mixture models used for semi-supervised learning, where both transition probabilities between the latent states and mean parameter of the probability distribution of the responses (for a given state) depend on the set of $p$ covariates. A priori w…

Detects anomalies in multiple processes using hidden Markov models.

Deep nonlinear models pose a challenge for fitting parameters due to lack of knowledge of the hidden layer and the potentially non-affine relation of the initial and observed layers. In the present work we investigate the use of information theoretic measures such as mutual information and Kullback-Leibler (KL) diverge…

Gradient descent optimally trains RNNs without overparameterization.

New method accounts for hidden context in preference learning for RLHF models.

We study the problem of learning one-hidden-layer neural networks with Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) activation function, where the inputs are sampled from standard Gaussian distribution and the outputs are generated from a noisy teacher network. We analyze the performance of gradient descent for training such kind of n…

Machine learning provides algorithms that can learn from data and make inferences or predictions on data. Bayesian networks are a class of graphical models that allow to represent a collection of random variables and their condititional dependencies by directed acyclic graphs. In this paper, an inference algorithm for …

As a new neural machine translation approach, Non-Autoregressive machine Translation (NAT) has attracted attention recently due to its high efficiency in inference. However, the high efficiency has come at the cost of not capturing the sequential dependency on the target side of translation, which causes NAT to suffer …

The paper tackles estimation of hidden state LTI systems of unknown order.

A framework combining HSMM and survival analysis for lifecycle-oriented mobility analysis.