A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Optimizes e-commerce traffic sales by incorporating hidden costs into auction mechanisms.
Sunshine trading theory predicts lower execution costs and liquidity provision through explicit preannouncements, but evidence is scarce in traditional markets.
This work speeds up fHMM analysis by tensor algebra.
Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) provide state-of-the-art performance in processing sequential data but are memory intensive to train, limiting the flexibility of RNN models which can be trained. Reversible RNNs---RNNs for which the hidden-to-hidden transition can be reversed---offer a path to reduce the memory require…
The paper constructs minimizers for deep learning networks and analyzes their geometric structure.
Passive investing can incur hidden costs due to market timing inefficiencies.
This work concerns testing the number of parameters in one hidden layer multilayer perceptron (MLP). For this purpose we assume that we have identifiable models, up to a finite group of transformations on the weights, this is for example the case when the number of hidden units is know. In this framework, we show that …
The paper reveals the hidden costs of digitizing commodity money and proposes a new stable-coin system.
New method estimates hidden binary mixture model centers efficiently.
Learning nonlinear dynamics from diffusion data is a challenging problem since the individuals observed may be different at different time points, generally following an aggregate behaviour. Existing work cannot handle the tasks well since they model such dynamics either directly on observations or enforce the availabi…
When encountering novel objects, humans are able to infer a wide range of physical properties such as mass, friction and deformability by interacting with them in a goal driven way. This process of active interaction is in the same spirit as a scientist performing experiments to discover hidden facts. Recent advances i…
As a new neural machine translation approach, Non-Autoregressive machine Translation (NAT) has attracted attention recently due to its high efficiency in inference. However, the high efficiency has come at the cost of not capturing the sequential dependency on the target side of translation, which causes NAT to suffer …
Stochastic Volatility in Mean models with heavy-tailed distributions using Hidden Markov Models
A new optimizer for deep learning improves accuracy and reduces training time.
Automatic methods for generating state-of-the-art neural network architectures without human experts have generated significant attention recently. This is because of the potential to remove human experts from the design loop which can reduce costs and decrease time to model deployment. Neural architecture search (NAS)…
Paper derives constraints for Bayesian Knowledge Tracing parameters.
We study the problem of the execution of a moderate size order in an illiquid market within the framework of a solvable Markovian model. We suppose that in order to avoid impact costs, a trader decides to execute her order through a unique trade, waiting for enough liquidity to accumulate at the best quote. We find tha…
Efficient adjustment sets found for cost-minimized causal estimations.
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
Reinforcement learning aims at searching the best policy model for decision making, and has been shown powerful for sequential recommendations. The training of the policy by reinforcement learning, however, is placed in an environment. In many real-world applications, however, the policy training in the real environmen…
We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constan…
Funnel-Transformer reduces computation by compressing sequence data.
We present a novel neural network algorithm, the Tensor Switching (TS) network, which generalizes the Rectified Linear Unit (ReLU) nonlinearity to tensor-valued hidden units. The TS network copies its entire input vector to different locations in an expanded representation, with the location determined by its hidden un…
New method improves parameter estimation in complex stochastic models.
Transferability of learned features between tasks can massively reduce the cost of training a neural network on a novel task. We investigate the effect of network width on learned features using activation atlases --- a visualization technique that captures features the entire hidden state responds to, as opposed to in…
The paper improves competitive and dynamic regret bounds for smoothed online learning.
After the release of the final accounting standards for impairment in July 2014 by the IASB, banks will face the next significant methodological challenge after Basel 2. In this paper, first methodological thoughts are presented, and ways how to approach underlying questions are proposed. It starts with a detailed disc…
In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions. We introduce a cost function that encodes the trade-off between accuracy and reliability in probabilistic forecast. We derive analytic formula for the case of forecasts of continuous scalar variables expressed in terms of Gaus…
This paper proposes CF-NADE, a neural autoregressive architecture for collaborative filtering (CF) tasks, which is inspired by the Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) based CF model and the Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (NADE). We first describe the basic CF-NADE model for CF tasks. Then we propose to imp…
We solve a complex Bayesian control problem with novel methods.
The autoencoder is an effective unsupervised learning model which is widely used in deep learning. It is well known that an autoencoder with a single fully-connected hidden layer, a linear activation function and a squared error cost function trains weights that span the same subspace as the one spanned by the principa…
Generalization of time series prediction remains an important open issue in machine learning, wherein earlier methods have either large generalization error or local minima. We develop an analytically solvable, unsupervised learning scheme that extracts the most informative components for predicting future inputs, term…
New algorithm reduces clustering cost in bandit feedback.
Respiratory infections and chronic respiratory diseases impose a heavy health burden worldwide. Coughing is one of the most common symptoms of many such infections, and can be indicative of flare-ups of chronic respiratory diseases. Whether at a clinical or public health level, the capacity to identify bouts of coughin…
We propose a general, theoretically justified mechanism for processing missing data by neural networks. Our idea is to replace typical neuron's response in the first hidden layer by its expected value. This approach can be applied for various types of networks at minimal cost in their modification. Moreover, in contras…
A scalable Bayesian additive model for stellar flare detection using Gaussian process inference and hidden Markov models.
We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-d…
We introduce the chi-square test neural network: a single hidden layer backpropagation neural network using chi-square test theorem to redefine the cost function and the error function. The weights and thresholds are modified using standard backpropagation algorithm. The proposed approach has the advantage of making co…
Study reveals a hidden cost in derivatives markets through option-implied discount factors.
Auto-Encoders are unsupervised models that aim to learn patterns from observed data by minimizing a reconstruction cost. The useful representations learned are often found to be sparse and distributed. On the other hand, compressed sensing and sparse coding assume a data generating process, where the observed data is g…
New method improves Gaussian Mixture Model fitting speed.
Agent learns to trade currency pairs with improved risk management.
Robo-advisors use MPC to create dynamic investment strategies.
This paper introduces a new approach to finding knots and links with hidden symmetries using "hidden extensions", a class of hidden symmetries defined here. We exhibit a family of tangle complements in the ball whose boundaries have symmetries with hidden extensions, then we further extend these to hidden symmetries of…
With the rapid growth in fashion e-commerce and customer-friendly product return policies, the cost to handle returned products has become a significant challenge. E-tailers incur huge losses in terms of reverse logistics costs, liquidation cost due to damaged returns or fraudulent behavior. Accurate prediction of prod…
ROAD-EnKFs use learned low-dimensional models to improve state reconstruction and forecasting.
While the backpropagation of error algorithm enables deep neural network training, it implies (i) bidirectional synaptic weight transport and (ii) update locking until the forward and backward passes are completed. Not only do these constraints preclude biological plausibility, but they also hinder the development of l…
Autonomous Vehicles navigating in urban areas have a need to understand and predict future pedestrian behavior for safer navigation. This high level of situational awareness requires observing pedestrian behavior and extrapolating their positions to know future positions. While some work has been done in this field usi…