Detect hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments.
problem Detect hidden confounding in observational data.
method Theoretical framework and simulation studies to test for hidden confounding.
result The proposed procedure correctly predicts hidden confounding, especially when bias is large.
Method estimates CATE using RCT data to handle hidden confounders.
problem Estimating CATE in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Pseudo-confounder generator and CATE model alignment.
result Method reduces bias in CATE estimation.
Proposes DSW for unbiased ITE estimation with dynamic confounders.
problem Estimating ITE from dynamic observational data with time-varying confounders.
method Deep Sequential Weighting (DSW) infers hidden confounders using current treatment assignments and historical information.
result DSW generates unbiased and accurate treatment effects.
Estimates CATE under hidden confounding, accounting for bias and ignorance.
problem Learning CATE from high-dimensional data with unobserved confounders introduces bias and ignorance.
method Parametric interval estimator that accounts for hidden confounding and underrepresented samples.
result Estimator converges to tight bounds on CATE when there may be unobserved confounding.
CgNN uses network structure as IVs to estimate causal effects in networks.
problem Hidden confounders complicate causal effect estimation in network data.
method CgNN combines GNNs and attention mechanisms to leverage network structure as IVs.
result CgNN effectively mitigates hidden confounder bias and improves causal effect estimation.
New method for causal effect estimation with hidden confounders.
problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Singular value decomposition of a conditional expectation operator followed by saddle-point optimization.
result Our method outperforms existing methods on common benchmarks.
Spectral deconfounding improves machine learning models by reducing hidden confounding effects.
problem Machine learning models can be misled by hidden confounders, leading to unreliable predictions.
method Develops a nonlinear spectral deconfounding framework for gradient boosting that modifies boosting dynamics to slow down in confounding-aligned directions.
result Spectrally deconfounded boosting improves estimation of the target function under hidden confounding and is more scalable.
Estimates effects of multiple interventions with hidden confounders using single-variable interventions.
problem Estimating effects of multiple interventions in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Identifiability under nonlinear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise; pooling and joint likelihood maximization.
result Proven identifiability and superior performance compared to baseline.
Proposes new method to handle hidden confounders in causal mediation analysis.
problem Break down total effect of treatment on outcome through different causal pathways.
method Combines proxy strategies and deep learning to uncover latent variables and estimate causal effects.
result Validated effectiveness of the proposed method for causal fairness analysis.
Method bounds continuous-valued treatment effects when confounding variables are hidden.
problem Inferring causal effects of continuous treatments when hidden confounders are present.
method Novel methodology to bound average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment effects.
result Method gives tighter coverage of true dose-response curve than existing methods.
Caus-Modens uses deep ensembles to better predict causal outcomes in hidden confounding scenarios.
problem Predicting causal outcomes in the presence of hidden confounders.
method Caus-Modens employs a modulated ensemble approach to improve prediction intervals for causal outcomes using sensitivity models.
result Caus-Modens provides tighter prediction intervals for causal outcomes compared to existing methods.
The paper analyzes identifiability in ODE systems with hidden confounders.
problem Identifiability of ODE systems with hidden confounders.
method Systematic analysis of identifiability in linear ODE systems with hidden confounders, considering both no causal relationships and causal dependencies.
result Comprehensive identifiability analysis of ODE systems with hidden confounders, including causal dependencies.
Reinforcement learning aims at searching the best policy model for decision making, and has been shown powerful for sequential recommendations. The training of the policy by reinforcement learning, however, is placed in an environment. In many real-world applications, however, the policy training in the real environmen…
Debias recommender systems by accounting for hidden confounders using network information.
problem Debiased recommender systems to reduce bias caused by hidden confounders.
method Leverage network information to disentangle user conformity and item popularity, modeling exposure and ratings while controlling hidden confounders.
result The proposed method effectively debiases recommender systems, improving recommendation accuracy.
New method tackles complex systems with hidden confounders and feedback loops.
problem Understanding complex systems with hidden confounders and feedback loops.
method Robust Causal Analysis of Linear Cyclic Systems with Hidden Confounders (LLC)
result LLC method can robustly analyze cyclic systems with hidden confounders.
Observational data is increasingly used as a means for making individual-level causal predictions and intervention recommendations. The foremost challenge of causal inference from observational data is hidden confounding, whose presence cannot be tested in data and can invalidate any causal conclusion. Experimental dat…
Develops a method to estimate treatment effects using noisy proxies over time.
problem Estimating individualized treatment effects from noisy proxies of confounders.
method Deconfounding Temporal Autoencoder (DTA) combining autoencoder and causal regularization.
result Improves treatment effect estimates by leveraging noisy proxies and learning hidden confounders.
Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials (A/B tests) are performed to evaluate treatment assignment functions. However, such…
B-Learner provides bounds on CATE under hidden confounding risks.
problem Estimating CATE in the presence of hidden confounding.
method Adapting bounds on average treatment effect to conditional distributional treatment effects.
result B-Learner offers valid, sharp, efficient, and quasi-oracle bounds on CATE.
New method removes hidden confounders for unbiased treatment effect estimation.
problem Bias in treatment effect estimation due to unobserved confounders.
method Proposes a new debiased estimation approach via SVD to handle heterogeneous confounding.
result Established rate of convergence for the estimator under different noise conditions.
Bayesian networks with hidden variables help identify causal relationships obscured by confounding.
problem Identifying causal relationships obscured by unobserved confounders.
method Use finite k-mixtures of Bayesian networks with hidden variables to recover the joint probability distribution and identify causal relationships. result First algorithm to learn mixtures of non-empty DAGs, recovering identifiable causal relationships.
VTD uses deep embeddings to estimate treatment effects from longitudinal data without unconfoundedness assumption.
problem Challenges in estimating individualized treatment effects from longitudinal observational data due to confounding bias.
method Leverages deep variational embeddings and observed proxies to learn hidden confounders.
result Effective in estimating treatment effects when hidden confounding is the leading bias.
The estimation of treatment effects is a pervasive problem in medicine. Existing methods for estimating treatment effects from longitudinal observational data assume that there are no hidden confounders, an assumption that is not testable in practice and, if it does not hold, leads to biased estimates. In this paper, w…
A new method uses randomized trials to estimate the strength of unobserved confounding.
problem Unobserved confounding compromises causal conclusions from non-randomized studies.
method Designs a statistical test to detect unobserved confounding strength and estimates a lower bound.
result Estimates an asymptotically valid lower bound on unobserved confounding strength.
DWTS uses observational data to improve clinical trial efficiency.
problem Lack of definitive conclusions from randomized clinical trials due to insufficient patient cohorts and confounding biases.
method DWTS combines observational data with randomized clinical trials using Doubly Debiased LASSO (DDL) to identify reliable covariates.
result DWTS reduces cumulative regret in clinical trials compared to standard methods.
CausalGame benchmarks LLM agents' causal thinking in games.
problem Evaluating causal thinking in AI Scientists with LLMs.
method Interactive games with 14 scenarios incorporating selection bias, measurement error, and hidden confounders.
result None of the 30 LLM agents demonstrated reliable causal thinking, with the best model achieving only 68.0% survival.
Boosted Control Functions improve prediction under distributional shifts.
problem Prediction under distributional shifts in the presence of hidden confounding.
method Boosted Control Function (BCF) and ControlTwicing algorithm.
result BCF allows for distribution generalization and invariance under nonlinear, non-identifiable structural functions.
Study compares causal discovery methods for cyclic models with hidden confounders.
problem Detect causal directions in cyclic systems with hidden confounders.
method Comprehensive comparison of four causal discovery techniques.
result Performance varies across different experimental setups and dataset sizes.
Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
problem Estimating treatment effects in time series with hidden confounding.
method A neural framework that learns individual-level counterfactuals and flexible matching procedures.
result Improves counterfactual estimation under latent bias.
New method for evaluating policies in complex decision-making models with hidden variables.
problem Evaluating policies in partially observable Markov decision processes with hidden confounders.
method Introduces novel identification methods and minimax estimation techniques for linking target policy's value and observed data distribution.
result Proposes three estimators for off-policy evaluation in POMDPs with latent confounders, demonstrating their effectiveness through nonasymptotic and asymptotic analysis.
We study a model where one target variable Y is correlated with a vector X:=(X_1,...,X_d) of predictor variables being potential causes of Y. We describe a method that infers to what extent the statistical dependences between X and Y are due to the influence of X on Y and to what extent due to a hidden common cause (co…
Paper tackles unobserved confounding in human-AI collaborations.
problem Unobserved confounding undermines human-AI collaboration effectiveness.
method Combines sensitivity analysis from causal inference with AI-driven statistical modeling.
result Enhances robustness and reliability of collaborative outcomes.
This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect the manipulated variable and the outcome. Such an "experiment on data" to estima…
Extends causal inference to hidden mediators with proxies.
problem Identifying causal effects with hidden mediators and error-prone proxies.
method Established causal hidden mediation analysis and hidden front-door criterion.
result Identification of population intervention indirect effect possible with hidden mediators.
Proposes a new method for algorithmic recourse in confounded settings.
problem Provides actionable recommendations for individuals affected by automated decisions.
method Relaxes assumptions of no hidden confounding and additive noise, requiring only causal graph and confounding structure.
result Bounds the expected counterfactual effect of recourse actions, ensuring favourable outcomes in expectation.
Unified techniques improve stability and replicability in changing data.
problem Concept drift in data generating distribution.
method Removing hidden confounding and causal regularization.
result Improves stability, replicability, and robustness in heterogeneous data.
New method estimates treatment effects from high dimensional data.
problem Estimating treatment effects from high dimensional data with confounders.
method Generative modeling approach to backdoor adjustment in variational inference.
result Empirically, estimates interventional likelihood in high dimensional settings.
ContiVAE estimates individual dose-response curves from unobserved confounders using observational data.
problem Estimating causal effects of continuous treatments considering unobserved confounders.
method Variational auto-encoder with a Tilted Gaussian prior distribution modeling hidden confounders as latent variables.
result ContiVAE outperforms existing methods by up to 62% in predicting individual dose-response curves.
Estimates causal effect using proxies in multi-domain settings.
problem Estimating causal effect in settings with unobserved confounders across domains.
method Proposes estimation techniques using proxy variables for discrete or categorical data.
result Proves identifiability and consistency of causal effect estimation.
VACA models graph data for causal inference without hidden confounders.
problem Causal inference in observational data with hidden confounders.
method Variational graph autoencoders for structural causal models.
result Accurately approximates interventional and counterfactual distributions.
Confounding variables are a well known source of nuisance in biomedical studies. They present an even greater challenge when we combine them with black-box machine learning techniques that operate on raw data. This work presents two case studies. In one, we discovered biases arising from systematic errors in the data g…
The study provides a theory for causal machine learning with generalization bounds.
problem Lack of theoretical guarantees for causal machine learning algorithms.
method Introduces a novel change-of-measure inequality to bound model loss.
result Tight bounds on model loss in terms of treatment propensities deviation.
New methods identify causal effects without needing complete proxy variables.
problem Identifying causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders.
method Partial identification methods that do not require completeness of proxy variables.
result Obtain bounds on causal effects using available proxy variables.
We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding. Previous approaches, which assume unconfoundedness, i.e., that no unobserved confounders affect both the treatment assignment as well as outcome, can lead to policies that introd…
We consider linear models where d potential causes X1,...,Xd are correlated with one target quantity Y and propose a method to infer whether the association is causal or whether it is an artifact caused by overfitting or hidden common causes. We employ the idea that in the former case the vector of regression c…
New method uses variational inference to handle confounding in imitation learning.
problem Confounding due to different sensory inputs between expert and imitating agent.
method Train variational inference model to infer expert's latent information and use for latent-conditional policy training.
result Algorithm converges to correct interventional policy and achieves asymptotically optimal performance.
Identifying causal direction in location-scale noise models with hidden variables
problem Causal discovery in location-scale noise models with hidden variables
method ADMGs satisfying a bow-free condition
result First identifiability result for causally insufficient models beyond noise additivity
Amortized Causal Discovery learns to infer causal graphs from time-series data, improving performance.
problem Inference of causal graphs from time-series data is inefficient due to fitting new models for each sample.
method Proposes Amortized Causal Discovery, a variational model that leverages shared dynamics across samples with different causal graphs.
result Significant improvements in causal discovery performance demonstrated experimentally.