Economics tool predicts failure times in reliability systems.
problem Predicting optimal failure times in weighted k-out-of-n reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
method Using rational expectations to analyze and predict failure times in reliability systems with heterogeneous component failure.
result Different measures are optimal for predicting system failure depending on component failure distributions.
This paper improves federated learning for industrial predictive analytics by accommodating client heterogeneity.
problem Traditional federated models assume homogeneity in degradation processes, which doesn't apply to industrial settings.
method Personalized federated prognostic model using proximal gradient descent algorithm for joint parameter estimation.
result The proposed model enhances performance and provides comprehensive failure time distributions.
We consider a model of contagion in financial networks recently introduced in the literature, and we characterize the effect of a few features empirically observed in real networks on the stability of the system. Notably, we consider the effect of heterogeneous degree distributions, heterogeneous balance sheet size and…
New method identifies subgroups in censored data.
problem Identifying meaningful patterns in heterogeneous populations.
method Combining inverse probability weighting, M-estimation, and concave pairwise fusion penalization.
result Robust approach for censored data under heterogeneous AFT models.
Study quantifies impacts of heterogeneity in FL on smartphone data.
problem Heterogeneity in FL devices causes performance degradation.
method Collected 136k smartphone data, built heterogeneity-aware FL platform, conducted extensive experiments.
result Heterogeneity causes up to 9.2% accuracy drop and 2.32x training time increase.
An interbank market lets participants pool the risk arising from the combination of illiquid investments and random withdrawals by depositors. But it also creates the potential for one bank's failure to trigger off avalanches of further failures. We simulate a model of interbank lending to study the interplay of these …
The paper tackles model failure detection and refitting in real-world systems.
problem Real-world data often fails statistical models due to heterogeneity.
method Develops tools for detecting and identifying model failures and refitting to improve accuracy.
result Empirical and theoretical results show the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.
Study quantifies events leading to Terra project failure in 2022.
problem Terra project's fragility and dependency on Anchor protocol.
method Systematic review of social media news, hourly and transaction data analysis, network science techniques.
result Identified trigger events and analyzed dependency structures using network science.
Many real-world complex systems across natural, social, and economical domains consist of manifold layers to form multiplex networks. The multiple network layers give rise to nonlinear effect for the emergent dynamics of systems. Especially, weak layers that can potentially play significant role in amplifying the vulne…
New framework learns complex AI attitudes from heterogeneous data.
problem Heterogeneous ordinal structure in AI attitudes, poorly captured by existing methods.
method Monotone Gaussian score embedding, BNP complexity discovery, confirmatory fixed-K estimation.
result Reduced holdout MSE by 25.8% over single-graph baseline.
Electronic health records (EHR) are increasingly being used for constructing disease risk prediction models. Feature engineering in EHR data however is challenging due to their highly dimensional and heterogeneous nature. Low-dimensional representations of EHR data can potentially mitigate these challenges. In this pap…
Novel asynchronous SGD method resists Byzantine attacks without server storage.
problem Asynchronous distributed learning with Byzantine attacks and failures.
method Buffered Asynchronous SGD (BASGD) and its momentum variant (BASGDm).
result BASGD and BASGDm resist non-omniscient and omniscient attacks without server storage.
Study improves machine learning for estimating survival treatment effects.
problem Estimating heterogeneous survival treatment effects in observational data.
method Flexible machine learning methods in the counterfactual framework, including AFT-BART-NP.
result AFT-BART-NP consistently yields best performance in terms of bias, precision, and frequentist coverage.
Feedback alignment methods need to be evaluated for accuracy and gradient cosine similarity.
problem Evaluating feedback alignment methods
method Proposed diagnostic evaluation protocol
result Identified silent failures in standard reporting pair
This work frames reward modelling from preferences as a causal problem.
problem Reward modelling from preference data for AI alignment.
method Causal inference approach to identify challenges and assumptions.
result Causally-inspired approaches improve model robustness.
This study analyzes decision-making in diverse environments where past data may not predict future outcomes.
problem How to make decisions when past data is not indicative of future outcomes due to unobserved confounders.
method Developed a framework to analyze and bound the performance of data-driven policies in heterogeneous environments.
result Established a method to upper bound the asymptotic worst-case regret of policies and analyzed the performance of Sample Average Approximation (SAA).
Operational risk is the risk relative to monetary losses caused by failures of bank internal processes due to heterogeneous causes. A dynamical model including both spontaneous generation of losses and generation via interactions between different processes is presented; the efforts made by the bank to avoid the occurr…
Investigates model selection challenges in heterogeneous treatment effect estimation.
problem Lack of validation metrics for choosing the best model in treatment effect estimation.
method Empirical investigation of different model selection criteria.
result Complex interplay between selection strategies, estimators, and data.
Robust X-Learner improves HTE estimation in imbalanced and heavy-tailed data.
problem Estimating HTE in imbalanced and heavy-tailed data.
method Integrates γ-divergence objective and Proxy Hessian strategy into gradient boosting.
result Reduces PEHE metric by 98.6% in semi-synthetic Criteo Uplift dataset.
In this paper we explore the functional correlation approach to operational risk. We consider networks with heterogeneous a-priori conditional and unconditional failure probability. In the limit of sparse connectivity, self-consistent expressions for the dynamical evolution of order parameters are obtained. Under equil…
Framework assesses treatment effects by risk groups in observational studies.
problem Evaluating treatment effects in observational studies with risk stratification.
method Five-step framework for risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity.
result Low-risk patients received negligible absolute benefits, while high-risk patients had pronounced effects.
Event-based learning reduces communication in distributed networks.
problem Distributed learning with diverse data distributions and communication inefficiencies.
method A distributed learning algorithm using ADMM with event-triggered communication.
result The algorithm converges even with distinct local data distributions and achieves accelerated convergence in convex settings.
Communication networks have evolved from specialized, research and tactical transmission systems to large-scale and highly complex interconnections of intelligent devices, increasingly becoming more commercial, consumer-oriented, and heterogeneous. Propelled by emergent social networking services and high-definition st…
Machine learning forecasts show bias at long horizons, contrary to standard tests.
problem Forecast efficiency tests misinterpret machine learning performance.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of regularization and measurement noise.
result Machine learning forecasts exhibit overreaction at longer horizons, not bias.
A new method boosts survival analysis by stratifying patients and removing noise covariates.
problem Weak detection of treatment differences in randomized clinical trials due to patient heterogeneity.
method 5-Step Stratified Testing and Amalgamation Routine (5-STAR) using elastic net Cox regression and conditional inference trees.
result The 5-STAR routine significantly improves power in detecting treatment effects compared to traditional methods.
Unified model predicts multi-mode failure with multi-sensor data.
problem Independent failure mode and RUL prediction ignores inherent relationship.
method Hierarchical Bayesian framework with Cox model, Gaussian process, and multinomial distributions.
result Robust uncertainty quantification and accurate prediction of multi-mode failure.
The study uses a multi-armed bandit model to analyze and mitigate hiring discrimination.
problem Hiring discrimination due to insufficient data on worker skill and characteristics.
method Multi-armed bandit model to simulate firms' learning process and policy solutions.
result Temporary affirmative actions effectively alleviate discrimination caused by data insufficiency.
PAGER detects failures in deep regression models using a new framework.
problem Detecting failures in deep regression models.
method PAGER uses a combination of epistemic uncertainty and manifold non-conformity scores.
result PAGER accurately characterizes and detects failures in deep regressors.
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
problem Predicting and mitigating test-time failure risks of ML systems.
method Post-hoc meta-learner for estimating failure risks and uncertainties.
result Reliably predicts deployment-time failure risks across various ML models.
CalNF models rare failures with limited data, improving safety in autonomous systems.
problem Challenges in modeling and debugging rare safety-critical failures due to limited data.
method CalNF, a self-regularized framework for posterior learning from limited data.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance on data-limited failure modeling and inverse problems.
Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is an emerging engineering discipline which is concerned with the analysis and prediction of equipment health and performance. One of the key challenges in PHM is to accurately predict impending failures in the equipment. In recent years, solutions for failure prediction have evo…
This work improves safety validation of autonomous vehicles by finding interpretable failures.
problem Finding interpretable failures of autonomous systems in simulation.
method Signal temporal logic expressions optimized for high likelihood and human interpretability.
result Our methodology finds more interpretable failures with higher likelihood compared to baseline approaches.
Framework predicts remaining useful life of DSH subsystems under unknown failure modes.
problem Predicting remaining useful life of DSH subsystems with unknown failure modes.
method Unsupervised framework using mixture of Gaussian regressions and Expectation-Maximization algorithm.
result Improved prediction accuracy and interpretability of RUL.
Proposes a new AFT model for nonlinear survival data.
problem Limited ability of classical AFT models to represent nonlinear relationships and handle complex covariate structures.
method Structured nonparametric extension using Kolmogorov--Arnold representations and unified censoring-adjusted losses.
result Method captures nonlinear effects and recovers linear structure when appropriate.
The paper calculates the likelihood of a financial market failure involving multiple major banks.
problem Estimating the probability of a market failure involving multiple globally important banks.
method Multivariate Cox process across G-SIBs, deriving various theorems on market failure probabilities.
result The probability of a market failure increases with the number of G-SIBs and is inevitable if there are too many.
Paper proposes a method to predict disk failures using multi-layer domain adaptive learning.
problem Traditional machine learning models struggle to predict disk failures due to limited data.
method Multi-layer domain adaptive learning with source and target domains.
result The proposed method improves failure prediction accuracy on disk data with few failure samples.
We aim to predict and explain service failures in supply-chain networks, more precisely among last-mile pickup and delivery services to customers. We analyze a dataset of 500,000 services using (1) supervised classification with Random Forests, and (2) Association Rules. Our classifier reaches an average sensitivity of…
GE finds failures in autonomous systems without domain heuristics.
problem Finding failures in autonomous systems without domain-specific heuristics.
method Adaptive stress testing using go-explore (GE) algorithm.
result GE finds failures in scenarios other RL techniques cannot solve.
Threats on the stability of a financial system may severely affect the functioning of the entire economy, and thus considerable emphasis is placed on the analyzing the cause and effect of such threats. The financial crisis in the current and past decade has shown that one important cause of instability in global market…
Method distinguishes between failures and domain shifts in industrial data streams.
problem Confusing domain shifts with failures in industrial data.
method Modified Page-Hinkley changepoint detector and supervised domain-adaptation-based anomaly detection.
result Allows differentiation between failures and domain shifts.
Predictive models ground many state-of-the-art developments in statistical brain image analysis: decoding, MVPA, searchlight, or extraction of biomarkers. The principled approach to establish their validity and usefulness is cross-validation, testing prediction on unseen data. Here, I would like to raise awareness on e…
System predicts respiratory failure up to 8 hours early.
problem Early detection of respiratory failure in ICU patients.
method Machine learning on ICU patient monitoring data.
result System outperforms traditional clinical decision-making.
New method avoids failures in physics-constrained systems using active learning.
problem Handling fatal failures in systems governed by physics constraints.
method Develops a novel active learning method that considers implicit physics constraints.
result Achieves zero-failure in composite fuselage assembly process without explicit failure regions.
This paper addresses the problem of evaluating learning systems in safety critical domains such as autonomous driving, where failures can have catastrophic consequences. We focus on two problems: searching for scenarios when learned agents fail and assessing their probability of failure. The standard method for agent e…
We study large deviations and rare default clustering events in a dynamic large heterogeneous portfolio of interconnected components. Defaults come as Poisson events and the default intensities of the different components in the system interact through the empirical default rate and via systematic effects that are comm…
DeepSIP predicts network failures' impact using CNN from syslog and traffic data.
problem Predicting service impact from network failures.
method Temporal multimodal CNN for predicting time to recovery and traffic loss.
result DeepSIP reduced prediction error by approximately 50%.
In the last two years, more than 200 papers have been written on how machine learning (ML) systems can fail because of adversarial attacks on the algorithms and data; this number balloons if we were to incorporate papers covering non-adversarial failure modes. The spate of papers has made it difficult for ML practition…
Two BO methods improve reliability optimization for rare failures.
problem Maximizing reliability of designs subject to random perturbations.
method Bayesian optimization with Thompson sampling and knowledge gradient.
result Proposed methods outperform existing techniques in extreme failure probability scenarios.