New method improves prediction accuracy for low-risk patients in healthcare.
problem Machine learning models often focus on high-risk patients, ignoring low-risk ones.
method Proposed a new log-likelihood formulation to minimize proportional rate error.
result Improved prediction accuracy for low-risk patients in EHR data.
In many healthcare settings, intuitive decision rules for risk stratification can help effective hospital resource allocation. This paper introduces a novel variant of decision tree algorithms that produces a chain of decisions, not a general tree. Our algorithm, α-Carving Decision Chain (ACDC), sequentially carves o…
Hybrid Bayesian-conformal framework improves uncertainty quantification in healthcare predictions.
problem Jointly satisfying distribution-free coverage guarantees and risk-adaptive precision in clinical decision-making.
method Integrates Bayesian hierarchical random forests with group-aware conformal calibration, using posterior uncertainties to weight conformity scores.
result Achieves target coverage (94.3% vs 95% target) with adaptive precision, 21% narrower intervals for low-uncertainty cases.
This paper provides a ML framework for diabetes prediction and care management.
problem Diabetes prediction and care management challenges in real-world healthcare.
method Illustrates a Machine Learning framework for T2DM prediction and risk stratification.
result ML models align with physician's disease management steps.
auton-survival simplifies survival analysis for healthcare data.
problem Handling censored time-to-event data in healthcare.
method Open-source package for survival regression, adjustment, counterfactual estimation, phenotyping, and treatment effects.
result Demonstrates auton-survival's ability to support complex health and epidemiological questions.
Study improves mortality prediction in hospital patients using comprehensive feature engineering.
problem Accurate prediction of all-cause in-hospital mortality in healthcare.
method Comprehensive feature engineering approach using vital signs, laboratory results, and demographic data.
result Random Forest model achieved highest performance with AUC of 0.94, significantly outperforming other models.
New method tests risk measures for various distortions.
problem Testing risk measures for different distortions.
method Stratification and randomization of risk levels.
result Method performs well in numerical case studies.
New method improves compatibility of risk stratification models without sacrificing accuracy.
problem Compatibility issues arise when updating clinical machine learning models.
method Proposes rank-based compatibility measure and new loss function.
result Increased compatibility of models by 0.019 with no loss in discriminative performance.
A clinician desires to use a risk-stratification method that achieves confident risk-stratification - the risk estimates of the different patients reflect the true risks with a high probability. This allows him/her to use these risks to make accurate predictions about prognosis and decisions about screening, treatments…
Copula-based fusion improves breast cancer risk stratification.
problem Combining clinical and genomic risk scores using simple rules fails to capture their joint relationship.
method Used copulas to model the joint relationship between clinical and genomic risk scores.
result Copula-based fusion improves risk stratification, identifying subgroups with the worst prognosis.
In healthcare, patient risk stratification models are often learned using time-series data extracted from electronic health records. When extracting data for a clinical prediction task, several formulations exist, depending on how one chooses the time of prediction and the prediction horizon. In this paper, we show how…
LMM predicts healthcare costs and risks with improved accuracy.
problem Wasteful healthcare spending and inefficiencies in risk prediction.
method Generative pre-trained transformer trained on patient event sequences.
result Improves cost prediction by 14.1% and chronic conditions prediction by 1.9%.
The paper offers simple, near-optimal algorithms for multi-group learning.
problem Learning predictors within subgroups of a population, addressing fairness and hidden stratification.
method Studies the structure of solutions and provides simple, near-optimal algorithms.
result Simple and near-optimal algorithms for multi-group learning.
We propose a new active learning algorithm for parametric linear regression with random design. We provide finite sample convergence guarantees for general distributions in the misspecified model. This is the first active learner for this setting that provably can improve over passive learning. Unlike other learning se…
Framework assesses treatment effects by risk groups in observational studies.
problem Evaluating treatment effects in observational studies with risk stratification.
method Five-step framework for risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity.
result Low-risk patients received negligible absolute benefits, while high-risk patients had pronounced effects.
Study uses healthcare claims data to identify Covid-19 risk factors without prior selection.
problem Identify risk factors for severe Covid-19 cases.
method Fine-grained hierarchical information from medical classification systems used to analyze over 33,000 covariates.
result Method has better predictive ability than pre-specified morbidity groups.
Optimal healthcare investment timing in a dynamic model with mortality risk.
problem Optimal timing of healthcare investment to reduce mortality risk.
method Dynamic framework, stochastic control, optimal stopping problem, dual transformation.
result Characterization of the optimal investment boundary and numerical solutions.
Study fair healthcare predictions without harming patients.
problem Balancing fairness and avoiding unnecessary harm in healthcare predictions.
method Formalizes Pareto-optimal approach to minimize risk disparity without causing harm, dynamically re-balancing subgroup risks.
result Demonstrates a method to train neural networks achieving fair predictions without unnecessary harm.
Proposes a method to improve rare event prediction in healthcare.
problem Rare event classification in healthcare with low prevalence labels.
method Variational disentanglement approach to semi-parametric learning.
result Outperforms existing alternatives in mortality prediction on COVID-19 cohort.
High quality risk adjustment in health insurance markets weakens insurer incentives to engage in inefficient behavior to attract lower-cost enrollees. We propose a novel methodology based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to improve risk adjustment by clustering diagnostic codes into risk groups optimal for health ex…
New diagnostics detect variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare.
problem Variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare, leading to unreliable treatment decisions.
method Proposed evaluation framework using empirical prediction interval width and empirical decision flip rate diagnostics.
result Randomness in optimization and initialization can lead to substantial individual-level variability in risk estimates, affecting clinical decisions.
A statistical description and model of individual healthcare expenditures in the US has been developed for measuring value in healthcare. We find evidence that healthcare expenditures are quantifiable as an infusion-diffusion process, which can be thought of intuitively as a steady change in the intensity of treatment …
We prove the existence of Verdier stratifications for sets definable in any o-minimal structure on (R, +, .). It is also shown that the Verdier condition (w) implies the Whitney condition (b) in o-minimal structures on (R, +, .). As a consequence the Whitney Stratification Theorem holds. The existence of (wf)-stratific…
Optimizes risk assessment tools using mixed-integer programming.
problem Challenges in healthcare risk assessment due to label scarcity and asymmetric misclassification costs.
method Jointly optimizes scoring weights and category thresholds via mixed-integer programming (MIP).
result Prevents label-scarce category collapse and achieves more accurate risk categorization.
Combines neural networks and logic circuits for interpretable, accurate, and cost-effective learning.
problem Lack of generalizability and interpretability in neural networks and high hardware cost in logic circuits.
method Trains a neural network, then translates it to random forests, and finally to AND-Inverter logic.
result The pipeline maintains greater accuracy and minimizes logic complexity.
Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic disease that often results in multiple complications. Risk prediction and profiling of T2DM complications is critical for healthcare professionals to design personalized treatment plans for patients in diabetes care for improved outcomes. In this paper, we study the risk of …
The paper studies HKKN stratifications for non-compact spaces and proves convexity properties.
problem Proving convexity properties of moment maps for non-compact subsets.
method Algebraic and analytical study of HKKN stratifications for a vector space and compact Kähler manifold, then applying to non-compact subsets.
result Convexity properties of moment maps for invariant subsets are proven.
Predicting an individual's risk of experiencing a future clinical outcome is a statistical task with important consequences for both practicing clinicians and public health experts. Modern observational databases such as electronic health records (EHRs) provide an alternative to the longitudinal cohort studies traditio…
Proposes a novel model for healthcare and SME credit risk prediction.
problem Lack of guidance from global view in sequence representation learning for time series modeling.
method Hierarchical Global View-guided (HGV) sequence representation learning framework with GGE and β-Attn modules. result Competitive prediction performance compared with other known baselines.
New method predicts model performance under selection bias in healthcare.
problem Selection bias limits model generalizability in healthcare.
method Proposes a novel upper bound method for estimating model performance.
result Validates and demonstrates the practical utility of the method.
The rapid growth of Electronic Health Records (EHRs), as well as the accompanied opportunities in Data-Driven Healthcare (DDH), has been attracting widespread interests and attentions. Recent progress in the design and applications of deep learning methods has shown promising results and is forcing massive changes in h…
Paper compares traditional and ML models for renal failure, quantifying bias.
problem Measuring bias in ML models for healthcare applications.
method Compare Tangri risk score with ML model on 1.6M patient data.
result ML model shows better performance and potential bias.
We train and validate a semi-supervised, multi-task LSTM on 57,675 person-weeks of data from off-the-shelf wearable heart rate sensors, showing high accuracy at detecting multiple medical conditions, including diabetes (0.8451), high cholesterol (0.7441), high blood pressure (0.8086), and sleep apnea (0.8298). We compa…
Study proposes managing COVID-19 without economy shutdowns.
problem Avoiding lockdowns while maintaining healthcare system capacity.
method Detailed heterogeneous epidemiological model, calibrated to data.
result Countries can avoid lockdowns if ICU beds per million > 100.
Characterizing a patient's progression through stages of sepsis is critical for enabling risk stratification and adaptive, personalized treatment. However, commonly used sepsis diagnostic criteria fail to account for significant underlying heterogeneity, both between patients as well as over time in a single patient. W…
Stratifies representation varieties of twisted Hopf links.
problem Stratifying representation varieties of twisted Hopf links.
method Using stratification of AGLr(C)-representation varieties of the fundamental group of the complement of a twisted Hopf link. result Explicit description and computation of motives for ranks 1 and 2.
The paper defines a stratification for Lie groupoids in a tame topology context.
problem Presenting a tame topology counterpart to canonical stratification of Lie groupoids.
method Using Shiota's isotopy lemma and approximation theorem, the paper defines a canonical Whitney stratification of definable Lie groupoids into invariant strata.
result A canonical Whitney stratification of the Lie groupoid into definable strata invariant under the groupoid action.
Paper confirms MCS spaces are equivalent to CS sets.
problem Understanding the equivalence of MCS and CS sets.
method Analyzing the MCS stratification and intrinsic stratification.
result MCS spaces are equivalent to CS sets with respect to their stratification.
Alexandrov spaces have a special stratification that maps to spheres.
problem Characterizing the structure of Alexandrov spaces.
method Extremal stratification and space of directions analysis.
result Alexandrov spaces are homeomorphic to spheres in their space of directions.
Study examines impact of fairness penalties on clinical risk prediction models.
problem Widespread health disparities in machine learning-guided clinical decision-making.
method Empirical study across multiple databases, outcomes, and sensitive attributes.
result Penalizing fairness violations nearly universally degrades model performance and fairness metrics.
Hidden stratification causes machine learning models to fail on rare but important patient subgroups.
problem Machine learning models fail on rare patient subgroups not identified during training or testing.
method Assessed techniques for measuring and describing hidden stratification effects on multiple medical imaging datasets.
result Evidence of hidden stratification leading to over 20% performance differences on clinically important subsets.
Investigates properties of moment maps and stratifications on Lie groups.
problem Understanding moment maps and stratifications on real reductive Lie groups.
method Functorial, algebraic approach to moment map and Kirwan-Ness stratification.
result Properties and properties of moment maps and stratifications established.
Approves updates to machine learning models in healthcare based on accumulating data.
problem Designing policies to autonomously approve updates to machine learning algorithms in non-stationary settings.
method Learning-to-approve (L2A) approach that uses accumulating monitoring data to learn how to approve modifications.
result L2A learns to abstain when performance drops are common and approves beneficial modifications quickly when the distribution is stable.
Optimizes biharmonic map regularity using stratification methods.
problem Improving the known almost optimal regularity of biharmonic maps.
method Quantitative stratification method.
result Optimal regularity results for minimizing biharmonic maps.
New stratification reveals intrinsic singularity types of orbit spaces.
problem Understanding the intrinsic structure of orbit spaces under Lie group actions.
method Introduced the isostabilizer decomposition and established a map to Klein strata.
result A new canonical stratification on the manifold clarifies the relationship with classical structures.
With the emergence of the Hospital Readmission Reduction Program of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services on October 1, 2012, forecasting unplanned patient readmission risk became crucial to the healthcare domain. There are tangible works in the literature emphasizing on developing readmission risk prediction m…
The aim of this paper is to compare stratifications of moduli spaces given by group actions in the case of similarity of matrices introduced by Arnold and the author's stratification by projective orbifolds, and its relation to deformations o elements in the moduli space.
Combines k-means and hill climbing for stratification and allocation.
problem Optimizing stratification and sample allocation for complex surveys.
method Combining k-means type algorithms with hill climbing.
result Multi-stage combination algorithms generally perform well compared to recent methods.