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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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127253380506 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for hazard prediction

ICODEN models survival data with interval-censored times using neural networks and ODEs.

problem Predicting time-to-event outcomes with interval-censored data, especially when models require strong assumptions or cannot handle high-dimensional predictors.
method ICODEN uses ordinary differential equations and deep neural networks to model the hazard function and cumulative hazard without proportional hazards assumption.
result ICODEN achieves satisfactory predictive accuracy across various simulation and real-world applications, handling high-dimensional predictors robustly.

DeepHazard uses neural networks to predict time-varying survival risks.

problem Traditional survival models assume proportional hazards and do not account for time-varying covariate information.
method DeepHazard is a neural network approach that models time-varying hazards without proportional hazards assumption.
result DeepHazard outperforms existing methods in predicting survival time, as shown by C-index metrics on real datasets.

Study compares Cox model and RSF for predicting patient survival, finding RSF superior in certain scenarios.

problem Comparing predictive accuracy of Cox proportional hazards model and Random Survival Forest for patient-specific survival probabilities.
method Conducted a comprehensive comparison study using simulation scenarios and real-world datasets.
result RSF outperforms Cox model in nonproportional hazards settings and with treatment-covariate interactions.

Application of discrete-time survival methods for continuous-time survival prediction is considered. For this purpose, a scheme for discretization of continuous-time data is proposed by considering the quantiles of the estimated event-time distribution, and, for smaller data sets, it is found to be preferable over the …

2019-10-15abs ↗pdf ↗

QSurv models survival data without discretization, achieving high accuracy.

problem Intractable likelihood estimation for continuous-time survival models.
method QSurv uses numerical quadrature for cumulative hazard approximation and time-conditioned low-rank adaptation.
result QSurv achieves competitive predictive performance and interpretable hazard patterns.

BoXHED boosts hazard estimation for dynamic health risk scores.

problem Analyzing time-varying health vitals for disease onset prediction.
method Gradient boosting for nonparametric hazard function estimation with time-dependent covariates.
result Novel interaction effects among risk factors identified in cardiovascular disease onset data.

CoxSE combines deep learning with self-explaining neural networks for survival analysis.

problem Improving predictive power of Cox Proportional Hazards model while maintaining explainability.
method Proposes CoxSE, a locally explainable Cox proportional hazards model using SENN, and CoxSENAM, a hybrid model with NAM.
result CoxSE provides more stable and consistent explanations while maintaining predictive power.

An accurate model of patient-specific kidney graft survival distributions can help to improve shared-decision making in the treatment and care of patients. In this paper, we propose a deep learning method that directly models the survival function instead of estimating the hazard function to predict survival times for …

2017-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a method to estimate average hazard under non-proportional hazards without relying on proportional hazards assumption.

problem Estimation of treatment effects when hazards are non-proportional, leading to unstable hazard ratios.
method Semiparametric, doubly robust framework for covariate-adjusted average hazard estimation.
result Valid sqrt{n} inference with small bias and near-nominal confidence-interval coverage across proportional and non-proportional hazards settings.

CBNNs model survival with time-varying interactions, outperforming other methods.

problem Complex covariate effects and time-varying interactions in survival analysis.
method Combines case-base sampling with neural networks to model time-varying effects and complex baseline hazards.
result CBNNs outperform regression and neural network-based survival methods in simulations and real data applications.

A new neural network model for predicting event times without distributional assumptions.

problem Predicting event times from censored data with complex assumptions.
method Deep AFT Rank-regression model (DART) using Gehan's rank statistic.
result DART significantly improves performance on various benchmark datasets.

DeepPAMM models complex survival data with deep learning, improving predictive performance.

problem Complex hazard structures in survival analysis with small data sets and censoring.
method Deep learning framework for piecewise exponential models, addressing high-dimensional feature settings.
result DeepPAMM outperforms other machine learning approaches in predictive performance.

MEC-Cox: A Machine-Learning-Assisted Generalized Entropy Calibration Method for Estimating ATT Marginal Hazard-Ratio

problem Estimating ATT marginal hazard-ratio in externally controlled survival trials
method Machine-learning-assisted generalized entropy calibration for IPW Cox regression
result Reduces bias, increases efficiency, and improves coverage

Paper addresses data heterogeneity in federated learning for CoxPH models in healthcare.

problem Data heterogeneity in federated learning of CoxPH models for healthcare.
method Feature-based clustering and event-based reporting strategy.
result Enhanced model accuracy and performance in federated survival analysis.

New method estimates hazard ratios without bias in observational studies.

problem Uninterpretable hazard ratios due to unspecified baseline hazard.
method Kernel-based machine learning to model risk set changes.
result Debiased maximum-likelihood estimators identify true hazard ratios.

The paper addresses evaluating survival predictions using discrimination measures, finding a robust method to convert distributions to risks.

problem Evaluating survival distribution predictions with discrimination measures is challenging and often leads to unfair comparisons.
method The paper surveys existing methods and recommends summing over the predicted cumulative hazard as the most robust method to convert distributions to risks.
result Summing over the predicted cumulative hazard is the most robust method to convert distribution predictions to risk predictions.

New method estimates survival risks without strong proportional hazard assumptions.

problem Time-to-event prediction with censored data and competing risks.
method Jointly learns deep nonlinear representations for fully parametric survival regression.
result Demonstrates benefits in real-world datasets with different censoring levels.

Boosting algorithms predict financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia.

problem Predict financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia using environmental data.
method Interpretable boosting algorithms based on ridge-regularized generalized linear models.
result Interaction effects improve predictive power only when included in two-step boosting.

SVB method provides scalable Bayesian proportional hazards model for high-dimensional gene expression data.

problem Bayesian methods for high-dimensional sparse survival data often sacrifice uncertainty quantification or computational scalability.
method Mean-field variational approximation for scalable Bayesian proportional hazards model.
result SVB method offers posterior distribution for parameters and variable selection via posterior inclusion probabilities.

SurvLIME-KS improves survival model explanations robustly.

problem Improving explanations of unreliable survival models.
method SurvLIME-KS combines Cox proportional hazards model and Kolmogorov-Smirnov bounds for robust optimization.
result SurvLIME-KS minimizes average distance and maximizes distance in approximating cumulative hazard functions.

The paper proposes a new method for clustering survival data using smoothed log-hazard trajectories.

problem Clustering survival data based on instantaneous risk dynamics.
method Functional Principal Component Analysis applied to B-spline smoothed log-hazard trajectories.
result The proposed method provides an interpretable representation of relative temporal risk dynamics.

Novel approach to compute hazard ratios from observational studies using SCMs and backdoor adjustment.

problem Identifying causal relationships from observational data using hazard ratios.
method Backdoor adjustment through structural causal models (SCMs) and do-calculus.
result Novel approach for computing hazard ratios from observational studies.

New method predicts spatial events like hurricanes and earthquakes with uncertainty.

problem Quantifying uncertainty in natural hazard predictions.
method Representing spatial point clouds as empirical measures, constraining prediction sets to spatial data manifold, using Wasserstein distance.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and lower energy/manifold distances compared to baselines.

Unified model estimates landslide hazard combining susceptibility, intensity, and frequency.

problem Lack of unified statistical models for landslide hazard estimation.
method Deep learning combined with extreme-value theory.
result Model performs excellently and can estimate hazard for multiple return periods.

Paper proposes a method to estimate confidence bands for survival random forests.

problem No statistically valid and computationally feasible approach for estimating confidence bands for survival random forests.
method Extending recent developments in infinite-order incomplete U-statistics, the paper proposes an unbiased confidence band estimation.
result The proposed method accurately estimates the confidence band and achieves desired coverage rate.

Paper develops a method to predict cancer patient survival using molecular profiles.

problem Accurately predicting cancer patient survival with complex survival-molecular profile relationships.
method Kernel Cox partially linear regression with a novel regularized garrotized kernel machine (RegGKM) method.
result The proposed method outperforms other methods in predicting survival accuracy.

New optimization methods improve Cox Proportional Hazards model training for high-dimensional data.

problem Vanishing second order derivatives in Newton method prevent convergence for high-dimensional CPH model training.
method Construct and minimize surrogate functions exploiting hidden mathematical structures of CPH model.
result Global convergence and monotonic loss decrease, leading to sparse and high-quality models.

To better understand the interplay of censoring and sparsity we develop finite sample properties of nonparametric Cox proportional hazard's model. Due to high impact of sequencing data, carrying genetic information of each individual, we work with over-parametrized problem and propose general class of group penalties s…

2012-07-18abs ↗pdf ↗

Study uses machine learning and survival analysis to predict CKD progression.

problem Early detection and management of CKD to reduce ESRD risk.
method Combines machine learning and classical statistical models to identify novel CKD progression predictors.
result Deep learning models outperform other methods in predicting CKD progression.

Spatially-aware model improves earthquake hazard assessment accuracy.

problem Misrepresentation of seismic effects across diverse landscapes.
method Causal Bayesian network with Gaussian Processes and normalizing flows.
result Achieves up to 35.2% AUC improvement over existing methods.

There is currently great interest in applying neural networks to prediction tasks in medicine. It is important for predictive models to be able to use survival data, where each patient has a known follow-up time and event/censoring indicator. This avoids information loss when training the model and enables generation o…

2018-05-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning improves CVD risk prediction from health records.

problem Predicting cardiovascular disease risk from administrative health data.
method Combined survival analysis and deep learning models.
result Deep learning models outperform traditional Cox models in accuracy and explained time-to-event occurrence.

Study optimal reinsurance contracts to prevent moral hazard under non-concave premium principles.

problem Preventing moral hazard in reinsurance contracts under non-concave premium principles.
method Develops optimal reinsurance contracts under a diffusion risk model with incentive compatibility constraints and extended distortion premium principles.
result An optimal reinsurance contract exists and is characterized by solving a double obstacle problem.

A new model uses neural networks to efficiently learn multivariate temporal point processes.

problem Efficiently modeling multivariate temporal point processes with low parameter complexity.
method Modeling the cumulative hazard function with neural networks for each variate.
result The proposed model achieves state-of-the-art performance on data fitting and event prediction tasks.