A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New model detects gradual changes in processes more accurately.
Paper detects gradual changes in cluster structure using MC fusion.
New concept of mixture complexity helps detect gradual clustering changes.
IUPM monitors machine learning models under gradual shifts using optimal transport and active labeling.
BRPC online Bayesian calibration handles gradual and abrupt system changes.
Many real-world time series, such as in health, have changepoints where the system's structure or parameters change. Since changepoints can indicate critical events such as onset of illness, it is highly important to detect them. However, existing methods for changepoint detection (CPD) often require user-specified mod…
New algorithm for nonstationary multi-armed bandits with optimal performance.
Methods for detecting structural changes, or change points, in time series data are widely used in many fields of science and engineering. This chapter sketches some basic methods for the analysis of structural changes in time series data. The exposition is confined to retrospective methods for univariate time series. …
In informationally efficient financial markets, option prices and this implied volatility should immediately be adjusted to new information that arrives along with a jump in underlying's return, whereas gradual changes in implied volatility would indicate market inefficiency. Using minute-by-minute data on S&P 500 inde…
First-best climate policy is a uniform carbon tax which gradually rises over time. Civil servants have complicated climate policy to expand bureaucracies, politicians to create rents. Environmentalists have exaggerated climate change to gain influence, other activists have joined the climate bandwagon. Opponents to cli…
We develop a mixture procedure for multi-sensor systems to monitor data streams for a change-point that causes a gradual degradation to a subset of the streams. Observations are assumed to be initially normal random variables with known constant means and variances. After the change-point, observations in the subset wi…
This work takes the first steps towards solving the "phaseless subspace tracking" (PST) problem. PST involves recovering a time sequence of signals (or images) from phaseless linear projections of each signal under the following structural assumption: the signal sequence is generated from a much lower dimensional subsp…
Self-training improves gradual domain adaptation with unlabeled data.
We introduce a Gaussian process-based model for handling of non-stationarity. The warping is achieved non-parametrically, through imposing a prior on the relative change of distance between subsequent observation inputs. The model allows the use of general gradient optimization algorithms for training and incurs only a…
Scales gradual pattern discovery from imprecise data.
New algorithm reduces online learning regret by exploiting historical invariances.
Detects data drift and outliers affecting ML model performance over time.
In this paper, a geometric function is introduced to reflect the attenuation speed of impact of one firm's default to its partner. If two firms are competitions (copartners), the default intensity of one firm will decrease (increase) abruptly when the other firm defaults. As time goes on, the impact will decrease gradu…
Gradually Truncated Log-normal distribution - Size distribution of firms Abstract Many natural and economical phenomena are described through power law or log- normal distributions. In these cases, probability decreases very slowly with step size compared to normal distribution. Thus it is essential to cut-off these di…
Study describes how conformal metrics behave as Q-curvature changes, forming spherical bubbles.
Proposes tPARAFAC2 for tracking evolving patterns in time-evolving data.
A new method uses normalizing flows for gradual domain adaptation.
Automatic Machine Learning (Auto-ML) has attracted more and more attention in recent years, our work is to solve the problem of data drift, which means that the distribution of data will gradually change with the acquisition process, resulting in a worse performance of the auto-ML model. We construct our model based on…
American options in a multi-asset market model with proportional transaction costs are studied in the case when the holder of an option is able to exercise it gradually at a so-called mixed (randomised) stopping time. The introduction of gradual exercise leads to tighter bounds on the option price when compared to the …
Usually considered as a classification problem, entity resolution (ER) can be very challenging on real data due to the prevalence of dirty values. The state-of-the-art solutions for ER were built on a variety of learning models (most notably deep neural networks), which require lots of accurately labeled training data.…
Study non-stationary distributions, proving risk bounds for density estimation.
The state-of-the-art solutions for Aspect-Level Sentiment Analysis (ALSA) were built on a variety of deep neural networks (DNN), whose efficacy depends on large amounts of accurately labeled training data. Unfortunately, high-quality labeled training data usually require expensive manual work, and may thus not be readi…
Gradual domain adaptation improves model transfer between domains with intermediate training.
The financial crisis clearly illustrated the importance of characterizing the level of 'systemic' risk associated with an entire credit network, rather than with single institutions. However, the interplay between financial distress and topological changes is still poorly understood. Here we analyze the quarterly inter…
A cost-effective framework for gradual domain adaptation using multifidelity.
Improved analysis of gradual domain adaptation with better generalization bounds.
We propose to tackle the mode collapse problem in generative adversarial networks (GANs) by using multiple discriminators and assigning a different portion of each minibatch, called microbatch, to each discriminator. We gradually change each discriminator's task from distinguishing between real and fake samples to disc…
The task of multi-step ahead prediction in language models is challenging considering the discrepancy between training and testing. At test time, a language model is required to make predictions given past predictions as input, instead of the past targets that are provided during training. This difference, known as exp…
In statistical modelling the biggest threat is concept drift which makes the model gradually showing deteriorating performance over time. There are state of the art methodologies to detect the impact of concept drift, however general strategy considered to overcome the issue in performance is to rebuild or re-calibrate…
Study shows activist board representation improves Japanese companies' performance.
Current studies about motor imagery based rehabilitation training systems for stroke subjects lack an appropriate analytic method, which can achieve a considerable classification accuracy, at the same time detects gradual changes of imagery patterns during rehabilitation process and disinters potential mechanisms about…
Paper proposes a method to design molecules with specific properties.
This paper describes audEERING's submissions as well as additional evaluations for the One-Minute-Gradual (OMG) emotion recognition challenge. We provide the results for audio and video processing on subject (in)dependent evaluations. On the provided Development set, we achieved 0.343 Concordance Correlation Coefficien…
ProteuS generates synthetic financial data with regime changes for testing drift detection.
Learning to cooperate is crucially important in multi-agent environments. The key is to understand the mutual interplay between agents. However, multi-agent environments are highly dynamic, where agents keep moving and their neighbors change quickly. This makes it hard to learn abstract representations of mutual interp…
The paper tackles gradual domain adaptation with manifold-constrained DRO, showing error bounds across distributions.
Game (Israeli) options in a multi-asset market model with proportional transaction costs are studied in the case when the buyer is allowed to exercise the option and the seller has the right to cancel the option gradually at a mixed (or randomised) stopping time, rather than instantly at an ordinary stopping time. Allo…
Surprise describes a range of phenomena from unexpected events to behavioral responses. We propose a measure of surprise and use it for surprise-driven learning. Our surprise measure takes into account data likelihood as well as the degree of commitment to a belief via the entropy of the belief distribution. We find th…
In this paper, we study time-varying graphical models based on data measured over a temporal grid. Such models are motivated by the needs to describe and understand evolving interacting relationships among a set of random variables in many real applications, for instance the study of how stocks interact with each other…
We investigate the spatial and temporal structures of four financial markets in Greater China. In particular, we uncover different characteristics of the four markets by analyzing the sector and subsector structures which are detected through the random matrix theory. Meanwhile, we observe that the Taiwan and Hongkong …
We study an optimal execution problem in a continuous-time market model that considers market impact. We formulate the problem as a stochastic control problem and investigate properties of the corresponding value function. We find that right-continuity at the time origin is associated with the strength of market impact…
A simple GI loss improves temporal generalization without complex methods.
Computational efficiency is an important consideration for deploying machine learning models for time series prediction in an online setting. Machine learning algorithms adjust model parameters automatically based on the data, but often require users to set additional parameters, known as hyperparameters. Hyperparamete…