This research tackles uncertainty in gradient boosting models using ensemble methods.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in gradient boosting models for high-risk applications.
method Probabilistic ensemble-based framework for gradient boosting classification and regression models.
result Ensembles of gradient boosting models detect anomalous inputs but have limited ability to improve total uncertainty.
The paper proposes a method to estimate predictive uncertainty in neural networks using gradient uncertainty.
problem Overconfidence in neural network predictions, especially in safety-critical applications.
method Incorporates gradient uncertainty into posterior sampling for efficient predictive uncertainty estimation.
result The proposed method effectively estimates predictive uncertainty on MNIST and notMNIST datasets.
A new method reduces complexity and uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex neural networks.
method Condensed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (cSVGD) method.
result Condensed SVGD provides uncertainty quantification on parameters.
New algorithms split deep learning tasks into representation and uncertainty estimation.
problem Challenges in uncertainty quantification for deep learning models.
method Proposes a two-stage approach: representation learning and uncertainty estimation.
result Simple methods outperform complex uncertainty layers in selective classification and out-of-distribution detection.
SLANG improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning models.
problem Challenging uncertainty estimation in large deep-learning models.
method SLANG estimates a 'diagonal plus low-rank' structure based on back-propagated gradients.
result SLANG enables faster and more accurate uncertainty estimation than mean-field methods.
Study proves rigidity for solitons with uncertainty principle.
problem Rigidity of shrinking Ricci solitons with uncertainty principle.
method Proves rigidity theorems for shrinking gradient Ricci solitons.
result Proves rigidity theorems with sharp constant in R^n.
Proposes a method to quantify and explain deep learning model uncertainties.
problem Deep learning model predictions are sensitive to perturbations and adversarial attacks.
method Gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify problematic regions and propose mitigation strategies.
result Proposed UA-Backprop method achieves competitive accuracy and efficiency compared to existing methods.
A new method for estimating uncertainties in neural ODEs without numerical integration.
problem Accurate estimation of predictive uncertainties in neural ODEs.
method Distributional Gradient Matching (DGM) algorithm that jointly trains a smoother and a dynamics model.
result Significantly more accurate predictions compared to traditional methods.
Gradient boosting can be seen as Gaussian process inference.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in out-of-domain detection.
method Gradient boosting reformulated as a kernel method converging to Gaussian process inference.
result Gradient boosting can provide better uncertainty estimates through Monte-Carlo estimation of posterior variance.
Uncertainty sampling is explained as a gradient step on a smoothed loss, leading to better parameters.
problem Reducing the amount of data required to learn a classifier.
method Interprets uncertainty sampling as a preconditioned stochastic gradient step on a smoothed zero-one loss.
result Uncertainty sampling converges to stationary points of the smoothed population zero-one loss.
New method handles uncertainty in adversarial attacks using ensemble noise simulation.
problem Uncertainty in adversarial attacks on neural networks.
method Simulates attacker's noisy perturbation using various gradient-based attack algorithms and a pre-processing Denoising Autoencoder (DAE) defense.
result Significant improvements in post-attack accuracy with the proposed ensemble-trained defense.
New method RECAST improves uncertainty calibration in neural networks.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in neural networks for better predictions.
method Proposed RECAST method combining cosine annealing, warm restarts, and Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics.
result RECAST offers the best calibrated measure of uncertainty compared to recent methods.
A scalable model estimates revenue uncertainty for SMEs.
problem Estimating revenue uncertainty for SMEs to manage credit limits.
method Scalable Natural Gradient Boosting Machines.
result The method distinguishes accurate from inaccurate revenue forecasts.
New method improves uncertainty quantification for large batch sizes and misspecified models.
problem Challenges in tuning algorithms for accurate uncertainty quantification in large batch sizes and misspecified models.
method Proposes new discrete-time approximations to SGD and SGLD, proving error bounds for practical tuning.
result Quantitative, non-asymptotic error bounds for accurate predictions of covariance and autocorrelation time.
Twin-Boot integrates uncertainty estimation into optimization using parallel training of identical models.
problem Uncertainty in overparameterized models, especially in low-data regimes.
method Twin-Bootstrap Gradient Descent (Twin-Boot) trains two identical models on independent bootstrap samples and uses their divergence to guide learning.
result Improves calibration and generalization, yields interpretable uncertainty maps.
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
Enhances ENet's prediction accuracy while maintaining uncertainty estimation.
problem Gradient shrinkage problem in ENet's loss function.
method Proposes a multi-task learning framework with a modified MSE loss function.
result Improves ENet's prediction accuracy without losing uncertainty estimation.
New method improves calibration of BayesCG for better uncertainty quantification.
problem Bayesian conjugate gradient method's poor calibration limits its utility.
method Randomized postiteration strategy to enhance posterior calibration.
result The method improves the distribution of posterior errors and enhances uncertainty quantification.
Extends neural network training framework to handle noise and uncertainty.
problem Handling noise and uncertainty in neural network training.
method Integrates non-zero aleatoric noise and derives posterior covariance for epistemic uncertainty.
result Derives an estimator for posterior covariance, providing a handle on epistemic uncertainty.
Enhances XGBoost for better uncertainty quantification in ML predictions.
problem Uncertainty in ML predictions, especially for XGBoost.
method Quantile Extreme Gradient Boosting (QXGBoost) using Huber norm in quantile regression.
result QXGBoost produces more accurate 90% prediction intervals.
Treeffuser predicts tabular data distributions using gradient-boosted trees.
problem Probabilistic prediction with flexible, non-parametric models.
method Gradient-boosted trees for score estimation in conditional diffusion model.
result Treeffuser outperforms existing methods in probabilistic prediction tasks.
BADGE samples diverse and uncertain points for deep neural nets.
problem Efficiently selecting batches for active learning with deep models.
method Samples groups of points that are disparate and high-magnitude in a hallucinated gradient space.
result BADGE consistently performs as well or better than other methods for active learning.
We consider the binary classification problem when data are large and subject to unknown but bounded uncertainties. We address the problem by formulating the nonlinear support vector machine training problem with robust optimization. To do so, we analyze and propose two bounding schemes for uncertainties associated to …
Stochastic gradient descent approximates Gaussian process posteriors efficiently.
problem Efficiently sampling from Gaussian process posteriors with limited computational resources.
method Developed stochastic gradient optimization objectives for sampling from Gaussian process posteriors.
result Stochastic gradient descent produces accurate predictive distributions, even in non-convergent cases.
This work accelerates uncertainty propagation in DNNs using active subspace.
problem Challenges in propagating uncertainty in DNN predictions from real-world data.
method Gradient-based active subspace method and response surface technique.
result Efficient uncertainty propagation in DNN predictions at low computational cost.
New method quantifies uncertainty in kernel models without distributional assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in kernel methods without strong distributional assumptions.
method Gradient perturbation to extract uncertainty information.
result Exact, non-asymptotic confidence regions for kernel models.
Cheap methods improve uncertainty in SGD solutions.
problem Uncertainty quantification in SGD solutions.
method Two resampling-based methods: parallel resampling with replacement and online resampling.
result Significantly reduced computation effort in constructing confidence intervals.
A new RL method using SSD compares action uncertainties to manage aleatoric uncertainty.
problem Managing aleatoric uncertainty in RL environments.
method Distributional RL based on SSD, mapping to Wasserstein gradient flow.
result Optimal particle-based algorithm for SSD policy demonstrates better uncertainty balancing.
New framework quantifies uncertainty in data and models using RKHS.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in data and models.
method Projecting data into RKHS, transforming PDF, decomposing gradient flow.
result Decomposes uncertainty moments, providing discriminative resolution.
NGBoost boosts multivariate probabilistic regression.
problem Joint probabilistic regression for multivariate targets.
method Natural Gradient Boosting for nonparametric modeling.
result Competitive performance in oceanographic velocity prediction.
We study the quantification of uncertainty of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) based on gradient metrics. Unlike the classical softmax entropy, such metrics gather information from all layers of the CNN. We show for the EMNIST digits data set that for several such metrics we achieve the same meta classification acc…
NGBoost boosts probabilistic predictions using natural gradients.
problem Uncertainty estimation in probabilistic predictions.
method Gradient boosting for probabilistic regression with natural gradient correction.
result NGBoost outperforms existing methods for probabilistic prediction.
Cross-regularization adapts model complexity during training.
problem Manual tuning of model complexity for overfitting prevention.
method Directly adapts regularization parameters through validation gradients during training.
result Organic emergence of architecture-specific regularization during training.
Enhances sample diversity in SGMCMC for better uncertainty estimation in BNNs.
problem Limited sample diversity in SGMCMC affects uncertainty estimation and model performance.
method Reparameterizes neural network weights to produce a more diverse set of samples.
result The proposed approach achieves superior performance in image classification tasks, including OOD robustness.
Model separates overall uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components for active learning.
problem Active learning with uncertainty quantification.
method Non-stationary Heteroscedastic Gaussian process model.
result Model separates overall uncertainty into aleatoric and epistemic components.
Wasserstein gradient boosting predicts probability distributions for supervised learning.
problem Distribution-valued supervised learning where outputs are probability distributions.
method Fits a new weak learner to Wasserstein gradients of loss functionals of probability distributions.
result Superior performance in probabilistic prediction compared to existing methods.
GoBOED optimizes experiments for specific decision-making objectives, improving downstream outcomes.
problem Reducing parameter uncertainty does not always improve decision-making in critical settings.
method Combines variational posterior surrogate and differentiable convex decision layer for gradient-based design optimization.
result GoBOED identifies designs that better align with specific decision objectives and reveals wider optimal design windows.
Regression trees learn gradients of differentiable functions.
problem Understanding gradients of differentiable functions using regression trees.
method Developed a method to estimate gradients of differentiable functions using regression trees and exposed quantities from tree learning libraries.
result Gradient estimates from regression trees can be used to improve predictive analysis and solve tasks in uncertainty quantification.
Single deep model detects out-of-distribution data with single forward pass.
problem Detecting out-of-distribution data points in neural networks.
method Deterministic uncertainty quantification (DUQ) using gradient penalty for reliable detection.
result Single model outperforms or matches ensemble methods in out-of-distribution detection.
New method for neural network uncertainty quantification using empirical Neural Tangent Kernel.
problem Accurately quantify uncertainty in neural network predictions.
method Post-hoc, sampling-based approach using gradient-descent on linearized networks.
result Method effectively approximates Gaussian process posterior and outperforms existing methods in efficiency and accuracy.
fSGLD optimizes deep learning by favoring flat regions in the loss landscape.
problem Understanding and improving the behavior and generalization of deep learning algorithms.
method Flatness-Aware Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (fSGLD) that biases learning towards flat basins.
result fSGLD targets a flatness-biased Gibbs distribution with explicit excess risk guarantees.
Forest tree species mapped with high accuracy using satellite data.
problem Classifying dominant tree species in Swedish forests.
method Extreme gradient boosting model with Bayesian optimization, combining Sentinel-1/2 satellite data and field observations.
result Overall accuracy of 85%, F1 score of 0.82, Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.81.
OrthoGrad improves neural calibration by constraining gradient updates orthogonally.
problem Overconfidence in neural networks, leading to poor uncertainty estimates.
method Orthogonal gradient updates to optimize for decision boundaries and reduce overconfidence.
result Significant improvements in test loss, predictive entropy, and confidence measures.
Enhances financial optimization under model uncertainty using subsampling.
problem Model uncertainty in financial decision-making from limited data.
method Superimposes uncertainty measure on model space, uses subsampling for model distribution approximation, adapts SGD for efficiency.
result Uncertainty measures outperform traditional methods and achieve comparable performance to Bayesian methods.
New algorithm reduces overfitting in neural networks.
problem Overfitting in neural networks.
method Integrates SMC with SGHMC for mini-batch sampling.
result SMCSGHMC outperforms SGD and deep ensembles.
Proposes a method to propagate uncertainty in neural networks for sparse coding.
problem Uncertainty in neural networks for sparse coding.
method Representing the target vector as a spike and slab distribution at each layer, deriving gradients of normalisation constants, and using Bayesian inference.
result Designs a novel Bayesian neural network for sparse coding.
New method uses biased MD to create accurate MLIPs.
problem Creating a comprehensive data set for MLIPs.
method Bias MD by MLIP's energy uncertainty, using gradient-based uncertainties.
result Develops uniformly accurate MLIPs with lower computational cost.
New method optimizes black-box functions using generative models and Wasserstein distance.
problem Optimizing black-box functions with stochastic responses in high dimensions.
method Deep generative surrogate models and Wasserstein distance for uncertainty estimation.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in robustness to function shape and stochasticity.