dboost optimizes prediction models for convex cone problems.
problem Optimizing prediction models for decision-making.
method Gradient boosting with implicit differentiation for convex quadratic cone programming.
result dboost reduces out-of-sample decision regret.
Gradient equilibrium improves online learning performance without requiring sublinear regret.
problem Achieving sublinear regret in online learning.
method Gradient equilibrium: average of gradients converges to zero.
result Gradient equilibrium can be achieved by standard online learning methods.
This research tackles uncertainty in gradient boosting models using ensemble methods.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in gradient boosting models for high-risk applications.
method Probabilistic ensemble-based framework for gradient boosting classification and regression models.
result Ensembles of gradient boosting models detect anomalous inputs but have limited ability to improve total uncertainty.
New method reduces training cost by using approximate gradients.
problem Training neural networks is computationally expensive.
method Uses control variates to approximate gradients without full backward pass.
result Efficacy demonstrated on a vision transformer classification task.
Treeffuser predicts tabular data distributions using gradient-boosted trees.
problem Probabilistic prediction with flexible, non-parametric models.
method Gradient-boosted trees for score estimation in conditional diffusion model.
result Treeffuser outperforms existing methods in probabilistic prediction tasks.
Researchers compare different gradient methods for ridge regression, finding conjugate gradients have similar performance.
problem Comparing statistical properties of different gradient methods in ridge regression.
method Explicit non-standard error decomposition to bound prediction error of conjugate gradient iterates.
result Conjugate gradient iterates share optimality properties with gradient flow and ridge regression up to a constant factor.
Unified comparison of gradient boosting algorithms for insurance claims.
problem Improving predictive accuracy and computational efficiency in insurance claim prediction.
method Unified notation and comprehensive numerical study comparing 12 gradient boosting algorithms on 5 datasets.
result No trade-off between model adequacy and predictive accuracy.
Randomized gradient-based ensemble improves prediction accuracy.
problem Improving prediction accuracy in machine learning.
method Randomization and gradient-based aggregation of weakly-correlated estimators.
result The method outperforms existing techniques in terms of increased accuracy.
We study how the behavior of deep policy gradient algorithms reflects the conceptual framework motivating their development. To this end, we propose a fine-grained analysis of state-of-the-art methods based on key elements of this framework: gradient estimation, value prediction, and optimization landscapes. Our result…
We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the cov…
Stochastic gradient methods are dominant in nonconvex optimization especially for deep models but have low asymptotical convergence due to the fixed smoothness. To address this problem, we propose a simple yet effective method for improving stochastic gradient methods named predictive local smoothness (PLS). First, we …
Despite having various attractive qualities such as high prediction accuracy and the ability to quantify uncertainty and avoid over-fitting, Bayesian Matrix Factorization has not been widely adopted because of the prohibitive cost of inference. In this paper, we propose a scalable distributed Bayesian matrix factorizat…
We present a predictor-corrector framework, called PicCoLO, that can transform a first-order model-free reinforcement or imitation learning algorithm into a new hybrid method that leverages predictive models to accelerate policy learning. The new "PicCoLOed" algorithm optimizes a policy by recursively repeating two ste…
A new gradient boosting method improves interpretability of probabilistic models.
problem Learning interpretable yet accurate probabilistic models with limited rule complexity.
method A new objective function that measures the angle between risk gradient and condition output vector projection.
result Significantly improves comprehensibility/accuracy trade-off of fitted ensemble.
Unified probabilistic gradient boosting for entire conditional distribution modeling.
problem Creating accurate probabilistic forecasts from regression tasks.
method Unified probabilistic gradient boosting framework using XGBoost and LightGBM, modeling conditional moments or CDF via Normalizing Flows.
result Achieves state-of-the-art forecast accuracy.
GBMixed boosts mixed models for clustered data, estimating mean and variance flexibly.
problem Flexible estimation of mean and variance components in clustered data.
method Gradient Boosting framework for linear mixed models with likelihood-based gradients.
result GBMixed accurately recovers complex nonlinear fixed effects and covariances.
Proposes ridge regression on Riemannian manifolds for time-series prediction.
problem Time-series prediction on Riemannian manifolds.
method Combines Riemannian least-squares fitting via Bézier curves, empirical covariance on manifolds, and Mahalanobis distance regularization.
result Significant error reduction in synthetic spherical experiments and hurricane forecasting.
A method predicts GNS of transformer layers using normalization layer norms.
problem Estimating gradient noise scale with minimal variance.
method Simultaneously compute per-example gradient norms and parameter gradients.
result Total GNS is predicted well by normalization layer GNS.
Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting corporate bankruptcy.
problem Predicting financial distress of publicly traded U.S. firms.
method Benchmarked various machine learning models using a comprehensive sample of bankruptcies.
result Gradient boosted trees outperform other models in one-year-ahead forecasts.
GGA improves untrustworthy prediction detection in neural networks without retraining.
problem Susceptibility of neural networks to untrustworthy predictions, especially adversarial attacks and out-of-distribution data.
method Geometric Gradient Analysis (GGA) analyzes the geometry of neural network loss landscapes based on saliency maps.
result GGA outperforms existing methods in detecting untrustworthy predictions, including adversarial and out-of-distribution data.
Gradient tree boosting is a prediction algorithm that sequentially produces a model in the form of linear combinations of decision trees, by solving an infinite-dimensional optimization problem. We combine gradient boosting and Nesterov's accelerated descent to design a new algorithm, which we call AGB (for Accelerated…
Variational inference transforms posterior inference into parametric optimization thereby enabling the use of latent variable models where otherwise impractical. However, variational inference can be finicky when different variational parameters control variables that are strongly correlated under the model. Traditiona…
TracIn measures how training examples affect model predictions.
problem Measuring the influence of training examples on model predictions.
method Tracing changes in loss during training when a specific example is used.
result TracIn provides a scalable method to estimate example influence.
Gradient Boosted Mixed Models estimate mean and variance components for clustered data.
problem Limited flexibility in linear mixed models for complex settings.
method Gradient Boosting extended to mixed models with likelihood-based gradients and flexible base learners.
result Accurate recovery of variance components and improved predictive accuracy.
Analysis of cross-validation for early-stopped gradient descent in high-dimensional regression.
problem Inconsistency of GCV for early-stopped GD in high-dimensional least squares regression.
method Theoretical analysis of GCV and LOOCV applied to early-stopped GD in high-dimensional least squares regression.
result LOOCV converges uniformly to the prediction risk of early-stopped GD, while GCV is generically inconsistent.
LoBoost improves local conformal prediction for gradient-boosted trees without extra data splits.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in gradient-boosted tree predictions.
method Model-native local conformal prediction using leaf structure.
result Competitive interval quality and improved test MSE with large calibration speedups.
New method estimates gradients accurately with sharp bounds.
problem Accurate gradient estimation in regression problems.
method Nearest-neighbor based pointwise estimate of gradients.
result Sharp nonasymptotic bounds for gradient estimation.
We present PredRNN++, an improved recurrent network for video predictive learning. In pursuit of a greater spatiotemporal modeling capability, our approach increases the transition depth between adjacent states by leveraging a novel recurrent unit, which is named Causal LSTM for re-organizing the spatial and temporal m…
The study examines how hyperparameters affect prediction discrepancies in machine learning models.
problem Prediction inconsistencies across different machine learning models trained on the same dataset.
method Investigation of six models (Elastic Net, Decision Tree, k-NN, SVM, RF, XGBoost) on 21 benchmark datasets, focusing on key hyperparameters.
result Hyperparameter tuning improves model performance but increases prediction discrepancies, especially in Extreme Gradient Boosting.
Paper predicts stock market values using machine learning.
problem Predicting stock market values for Tehran stock exchange groups.
method Used machine learning algorithms including Decision Tree, Bagging, Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting, Gradient Boosting, XGBoost, Artificial neural network, Recurrent Neural Network, and Long short-term memory (LSTM).
result LSTM shows highest accuracy among all algorithms tested.
Spectral gradient methods outperform Euclidean in certain deep learning scenarios.
problem When do spectral gradient updates outperform Euclidean in deep learning?
method Layerwise condition comparing squared nuclear-to-Frobenius ratio to stable rank of activations.
result Spectral updates can be more effective than Euclidean in deep networks and transformers.
Gradient-free method improves predictive accuracy for probabilistic models.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and robust predictive performance in deep learning.
method CAVI-CMN, a gradient-free variational method for conditional mixture networks.
result CAVI-CMN achieves competitive and often superior predictive accuracy compared to MLE with backpropagation.
Boosted conformal procedure improves prediction intervals.
problem Enhancing prediction interval properties like coverage and length.
method Gradient boosting to optimize conformity score function.
result Significant improvements in interval length and coverage.
Wasserstein gradient boosting predicts probability distributions for supervised learning.
problem Distribution-valued supervised learning where outputs are probability distributions.
method Fits a new weak learner to Wasserstein gradients of loss functionals of probability distributions.
result Superior performance in probabilistic prediction compared to existing methods.
Gradient boosting enhances existing Mendelian models for genetic disease risk prediction.
problem Improving existing Mendelian models for genetic disease risk prediction.
method Combining gradient boosting with existing Mendelian models.
result Improved model outperforms both original and gradient boosting-only models.
LSTM and gradient boosting models fail to outperform random chance in predicting MNQ futures.
problem Predicting intraday direction in MNQ futures using LSTM and gradient boosting.
method Comparing LSTM and gradient boosting models on 944 trading days of MNQ futures data.
result No model achieves statistically significant accuracy above random chance.
NGBoost boosts multivariate probabilistic regression.
problem Joint probabilistic regression for multivariate targets.
method Natural Gradient Boosting for nonparametric modeling.
result Competitive performance in oceanographic velocity prediction.
Hybridizes CEM and gradient descent for efficient model-predictive control.
problem Efficiently planning optimal action sequences in high-dimensional spaces.
method Interleaves Cross-Entropy Method (CEM) and gradient descent steps.
result Faster convergence and avoidance of local optima compared to CEM.
Gradient descent on LSE objectives implicitly performs EM, leading to collapse without volume control.
problem Gradient collapse in autoencoders without volume control.
method Introduced a single-layer encoder with an LSE objective and InfoMax regularization for volume control.
result Gradient--responsibility identity holds exactly; LSE alone collapses; variance prevents dead components; decorrelation prevents redundancy.
Gradient boosting for spatial regression models improves prediction accuracy.
problem Spatial data with autoregressive disturbances.
method Model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial regression models.
result Improves prediction accuracy on out-of-sample spatial data.
Meta-Graph learns to predict missing edges quickly from few samples.
problem Few-shot link prediction on graphs, especially when samples are sparse.
method Meta-learning framework that uses higher-order gradients and learned graph signatures.
result Meta-Graph can quickly adapt to new graphs using only a small sample of true edges.
Over the past decade there has been considerable interest in spectral algorithms for learning Predictive State Representations (PSRs). Spectral algorithms have appealing theoretical guarantees; however, the resulting models do not always perform well on inference tasks in practice. One reason for this behavior is the m…
Predicting traffic incident duration is a major challenge for many traffic centres around the world. Most research studies focus on predicting the incident duration on motorways rather than arterial roads, due to a high network complexity and lack of data. In this paper we propose a bi-level framework for predicting th…
This paper examines a novel gradient boosting framework for regression. We regularize gradient boosted trees by introducing subsampling and employ a modified shrinkage algorithm so that at every boosting stage the estimate is given by an average of trees. The resulting algorithm, titled Boulevard, is shown to converge …
New analysis reveals batch size effects on stochastic conditional gradient methods.
problem Understanding the role of batch size in stochastic conditional gradient methods.
method Deriving a new analysis focusing on momentum-based stochastic conditional gradient algorithms (e.g., Scion).
result Increasing batch size initially improves optimization accuracy but can degrade performance beyond a critical threshold.
This paper explores evasion attacks against Bayesian models.
problem Bayesian predictive models are vulnerable to evasion attacks.
method Developed gradient-based attacks for specific point predictions and entire posterior distributions.
result Optimal evasion attacks can be designed against Bayesian models.
Research creates a machine learning model for predicting TAVI patient mortality.
problem Lack of robust risk scores for TAVI patients.
method Gradient boosting on decision trees, feature analysis and selection, model validation.
result Model outperforms existing risk scores with AUC of 0.83.
Gradient boosting of regression trees is a competitive procedure for learning predictive models of continuous data that fits the data with an additive non-parametric model. The classic version of gradient boosting assumes that the data is independent and identically distributed. However, relational data with interdepen…