Study bounds noise level in linear regression with dependent data.
problem Analyzing noise level in linear regression with dependent data.
method Derive upper bounds for random design linear regression with β-mixing data, without realizability assumptions. result Correctly recovers the noise level of the problem, exhibiting graceful degradation with misspecification.
New compression schemes save communication in distributed mean estimation.
problem Efficiently compressing vectors for mean estimation in a limited communication setting.
method Collaborative compression schemes that exploit vector similarities without requiring known correlations.
result Analysis shows varying error types with vector similarity.
Global hydrological and land surface models are increasingly used for tracking terrestrial total water storage (TWS) dynamics, but the utility of existing models is hampered by conceptual and/or data uncertainties related to various underrepresented and unrepresented processes, such as groundwater storage. The gravity …
Paper establishes a formula linking model performance to insurance loss ratio.
problem Improving model performance does not always lead to proportional improvements in loss ratio.
method Derives a closed-form formula connecting Pearson correlation to expected loss ratio.
result Model improvements have diminishing marginal returns in reducing loss ratio.
Improved Bayesian inference via variational approximations of generalized rho-posteriors.
problem Robust Bayesian inference under model misspecification and data contamination.
method Introducing a modified ρ-posterior and using PAC-Bayesian analysis with variational approximations. result Theoretical guarantees for tractable inference with competitive robustness and computational efficiency.
Study risk-controlling prediction sets for single trajectory data from dynamical systems.
problem Performance guarantees for risk-controlling prediction sets in single trajectory data from unknown stochastic dynamical systems.
method Used blocking and decoupling techniques to analyze performance guarantees under different data generating processes.
result Performance guarantees similar to iid setting when data is stationary and contractive, with graceful degradation otherwise.
Machine Learning models are often composed of pipelines of transformations. While this design allows to efficiently execute single model components at training time, prediction serving has different requirements such as low latency, high throughput and graceful performance degradation under heavy load. Current predicti…
Proposes a new method for big portfolio selection using graph-based conditional moments.
problem Challenges in selecting portfolios for thousands of stocks.
method Graph-based Conditional Moments (GRACE) method: learns quantiles, means, variances, skewness, and kurtosis of stock returns.
result Shows superior performance compared to competitors, especially in measures of conditional variance, skewness, and kurtosis.
Despite the recent development in the topic of explainable AI/ML for image and text data, the majority of current solutions are not suitable to explain the prediction of neural network models when the datasets are tabular and their features are in high-dimensional vectorized formats. To mitigate this limitation, theref…
Study on RL on volatility surfaces, proving no free lunch for law-seeking methods.
problem Aligning RL agents with no-arbitrage laws in volatile markets.
method Built a law manifold, defined penalties, and used a Goodhart decomposition.
result No free lunch theorem: Law-seeking RL cannot outperform baselines.
New rigorous uncertainty bounds for Gaussian Process regression.
problem Need for frequentist uncertainty bounds in applications like learning-based control.
method Introduce new uncertainty bounds that are rigorous and practically useful.
result New bounds are less conservative and more useful for practical applications.
Gradient coding is a technique for straggler mitigation in distributed learning. In this paper we design novel gradient codes using tools from classical coding theory, namely, cyclic MDS codes, which compare favorably with existing solutions, both in the applicable range of parameters and in the complexity of the invol…
Method improves clarity in forecasting spatio-temporal data.
problem Forecasting spatio-temporal data with clarity and interpretability.
method Supervised semi-nonnegative matrix factorization with frequency regularization.
result Method offers clearer interpretability in forecasting spatio-temporal data.
We propose a joint source and channel coding (JSCC) technique for wireless image transmission that does not rely on explicit codes for either compression or error correction; instead, it directly maps the image pixel values to the complex-valued channel input symbols. We parameterize the encoder and decoder functions b…
In this work we present a novel approach for transfer-guided exploration in reinforcement learning that is inspired by the human tendency to leverage experiences from similar encounters in the past while navigating a new task. Given an optimal policy in a related task-environment, we show that its bisimulation distance…
It is well known that the distribution of returns from various financial instruments are leptokurtic, meaning that the distributions have "fatter tails" than a Normal distribution, and have skew toward zero. This paper presents a graceful micro-level explanation for such fat-tailed outcomes, using agents whose private …
Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.
problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.
Adaptive AI delegation framework for dynamic decision authority allocation.
problem Dynamic allocation of decision authority to AI-generated recommendations under evolving evidence quality and uncertainty.
method Formulated as a Governance-Aware POMDP, using Bayesian inference for informational state estimation and sequential optimization for authority allocation.
result Sequential Bayesian governance provides the strongest general-purpose policy across AI-quality regimes, adapting to evolving evidence.
Task-adaptive clustering improves few-shot learning with unlabeled data.
problem Handling unseen tasks with limited labeled data.
method Task-conditioned clustering in a new projection space.
result State-of-the-art semi-supervised few-shot classification performance.
Bayesian parametric matrix models provide uncertainty quantification for spectral learning.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spectral learning for safety-critical applications.
method Bayesian parametric matrix models (B-PMMs) that extend PMMs to provide uncertainty estimates.
result B-PMMs achieve exceptional uncertainty calibration (ECE < 0.05) while maintaining favorable scaling.
LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.
problem Lack of formal guarantees for multi-evidence reasoning in AI.
method LPF uses variational autoencoders and Sum-Product Networks to aggregate evidence items.
result Proves multiple formal guarantees including calibration preservation and error decay.
GRACE-C improves causal learning from time series data.
problem Misleading causal information due to mismatched timescales.
method Combines constraint programming with theoretical insights and prior information.
result Significantly faster and scalable causal learning for large datasets.
This paper proposes a novel scheme for the watermarking of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) policies. This scheme provides a mechanism for the integration of a unique identifier within the policy in the form of its response to a designated sequence of state transitions, while incurring minimal impact on the nominal pe…
Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches have demonstrated advanced performance in image captioning by directly optimizing the metric used for testing. However, this shaped reward introduces learning biases, which reduces the readability of generated text. In addition, the large sample space makes training unst…
Measures DNA quality degradation effects.
problem Identifying degraded DNA sequence data.
method Novel quality quantification based on intentional degradation effects.
result Quantified measures of degradation can be used for multiple purposes.
Modeling coating degradation with fewer data points.
problem Efficiently forecasting material degradation from high-frequency sensor data.
method Discrete degradation events using Hawkes processes.
result Forecasting future coating failure with superior performance.
Paper uses deep learning to model systems with degrading behavior.
problem Modeling systems with degrading hysteretic behavior and uncertainty.
method Uses low-fidelity data to train a deep operator network (DeepONet).
result Improves prediction error in degrading hysteretic systems with uncertainty.
Statistical test detects model degradations in optimized language models.
problem Detecting model degradations in optimized language models.
method Statistical hypothesis testing framework based on McNemar's test.
result Even small accuracy degradations (0.3%) can be attributed to actual degradations, not noise.
BNCR-GAN improves GANs to generate clean images from degraded inputs.
problem Generating clean images from blurred, noisy, and compressed degraded inputs.
method Multiple-generator model with image, blur-kernel, noise, and quality-factor generators, using masking architectures and adaptive consistency losses.
result BNCR-GAN effectively learns clean image generators from degraded images without degradation parameters.
Framework optimizes battery storage for markets by separating long-term degradation from short-term market dynamics.
problem Intractable computation due to timescale mismatch between battery degradation and market dynamics.
method Approximate dynamic programming with value function approximation and pseudo-time encoding.
result Policy outperforms benchmarks in real-time market scenarios.
HOTCAKE compresses CNNs by decomposing kernels into smaller parts.
problem Compressing deep CNNs without significant accuracy loss.
method Input channel decomposition, guided Tucker rank selection, higher order Tucker decomposition, fine-tuning.
result HOTCAKE produces highly compressed CNN models with good accuracy.
Paper develops a hybrid DNN approach for RUL prediction with adaptive drift.
problem RUL estimation challenges in practice, especially online update and uncertainty quantification.
method Hybrid DNN approach with Wiener-based-degradation model and adaptive drift. LSTM-CNN for trajectory prediction and Bayesian inference for adaptive drift.
result Superior accuracy in RUL prediction demonstrated on turbofan engines data.
A method for inferring ground-truth signals from degraded sensor data.
problem Inferring ground-truth signals from multiple degraded sensor signals.
method Iterative correction of degraded signals using a Bayesian multi-sensor data fusion method.
result The method effectively infers ground-truth signals from noisy and degraded sensor data.
Enhanced neural network framework improves constraint satisfaction with topological conditioning.
problem Maintaining semantic coherence while satisfying physical and logical constraints in neuro-symbolic reasoning.
method Integrates topological conditioning with gradient stabilization mechanisms using Forman-Ricci curvature, Deep Delta Learning, and Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy.
result Achieves mean energy reduction to 1.15 compared to baseline values of 11.68, with 95 percent success rate.
Paper uses neural networks to predict NOx emissions from gas turbines.
problem Predicting NOx emissions from degrading gas turbines.
method Applied neural network algorithm to model NOx emissions from nine process variables.
result Neural network model optimizes process variables for minimal NOx emissions.
CNN identifies AGN host galaxies from Sloan Digital Sky Survey data.
problem Identifying AGN host galaxies using traditional methods is time-consuming.
method Trained a convolutional neural network on 210,000 galaxies.
result CNN can distinguish AGN host galaxies from non-active galaxies.
Paper predicts bearing degradation stages for pharmaceutical industry maintenance.
problem Predicting when to maintain specific parts of production machines.
method AutoEncoder-based k-means segmentation of high-frequency vibration data.
result Framework generates reliable predictions for bearing degradation stages.
Paper proposes a new regularization method to prevent model degradation under distribution shifts.
problem Model performance degrades under distribution shifts.
method Supervised contrastive learning with heterogeneous similarity.
result The proposed method outperforms existing regularization methods on benchmark datasets.
Analyzes layer-wise quantization effects in neural networks.
problem Identifying and fixing degradation in quantized neural networks.
method Layer-wise quantization analysis framework.
result Local fixes can significantly reduce quantization degradation.
With the proliferation of mobile devices and the internet of things, developing principled solutions for privacy in time series applications has become increasingly important. While differential privacy is the gold standard for database privacy, many time series applications require a different kind of guarantee, and a…
The paper proposes a method to detect relevant model degradations without over-alerting.
problem Detecting meaningful changes in machine learning model performance over time.
method Sequential monitoring scheme accounting for temporal dependence and multiple testing issues.
result The proposed method outperforms benchmark methods in detecting relevant changes in model quality.
The literature on optimal reinsurance does not deal with how much the effectiveness of such solutions is degraded by errors in parameters and models. The issue is investigated through both asymptotics and numerical studies. It is shown that the rate of degradation is often O(1/n) as the sample size n of historical …
Deep learning predicts RNA degradation from crowdsourced data.
problem Predicting RNA degradation to improve thermostability.
method Crowdsourced machine learning competition on Kaggle.
result 41% of predictions matched experimental data, and models generalized to longer RNA molecules.
Proposes a federated learning approach for RUL prediction from nonparametric degradation and failure signals.
problem Cost-effective RUL prediction from limited, non-shared CM signals with unknown parametric forms.
method Joint modeling of nonlinear degradation signals and failure events using federated learning.
result Superior RUL prediction compared to alternatives, validated through simulations and real data.
Paper presents a probabilistic diagnostic model for identifying and treating supervised learning degradation issues.
problem Degradation problems in supervised learning, including class imbalance, overlapping, small-disjuncts, noisy labels, and sparseness.
method Develops a novel probabilistic diagnostic model to identify and treat degradation issues in supervised learning.
result Early and correct diagnosis of degradation issues allows for selecting appropriate remediation treatments and unbiased performance metrics.
Study optimizes HTL-free PSCs with MWCNTs, improving efficiency and stability.
problem Optimizing efficiency and degradation in HTL-free perovskite solar cells.
method Machine learning-driven framework integrating experimental validation and numerical simulations.
result Achieved RMSEs of 0.0179 and 0.0117 for efficiency and degradation, respectively.
This research improves asset life prediction by integrating deep learning with mixture distributions.
problem Predicting residual useful life for assets with multiple failure modes.
method Integrates mixture (log)-location-scale distribution with deep learning.
result Proposed models outperform existing methods in predicting residual useful life.
CRC improves multivariate forecasting accuracy without risking performance degradation.
problem Systematic errors and lack of guarantees in multivariate forecasters.
method CRC uses a causality-inspired encoder and hybrid corrector with a safety mechanism.
result CRC consistently improves accuracy and ensures high non-degradation rates.