A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper proposes a new model for predicting and analyzing economic variables.
Paper proposes a new MAR model for global economic forecasting.
Study shows how market efficiency changes during the pandemic.
LTMs use latent vectors for efficient autoregressive generation.
Sparse Tucker decomposition with graph regularization improves time series forecasting accuracy.
Standard autoregressive seq2seq models are easily trained by max-likelihood, but tend to show poor results under small-data conditions. We introduce a class of seq2seq models, GAMs (Global Autoregressive Models), which combine an autoregressive component with a log-linear component, allowing the use of global \textit{a…
A new clustering method for vector time series using autoregressive dynamics.
The 2006 sudden and immense downturn in U.S. House Prices sparked the 2007 global financial crisis and revived the interest about forecasting such imminent threats for economic stability. In this paper we propose a novel hybrid forecasting methodology that combines the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) from …
Study improves dividend discount model using VAR process.
Paper proposes a forecasting model combining autoregressive models with spectral attention.
We show Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with scalar Moving Average components could be estimated by generalized least square (GLS) for each fixed moving average polynomial. The conditional variance of the GLS model is the concentrated covariant matrix of the moving average process. Under GLS the likelihood …
Sustainability became the most important component of world development, as countries worldwide fight the battle against the climate change. To understand the effects of climate change, the ecological footprint, along with the biocapacity should be observed. The big part of the ecological footprint, the carbon footprin…
Alternative sampling method for autoregressive models using Langevin dynamics.
We present an efficient alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm for segmenting a multivariate non-stationary time series with structural breaks into stationary regions. We draw from recent work where the series is assumed to follow a vector autoregressive model within segments and a convex estimati…
Global watermark for diffusion language models decouples detection from local contexts.
There has been considerable advance in understanding the properties of sparse regularization procedures in high-dimensional models. In time series context, it is mostly restricted to Gaussian autoregressions or mixing sequences. We study oracle properties of LASSO estimation of weakly sparse vector-autoregressive model…
New framework IIA identifies innovations in general nonlinear vector autoregressive processes.
We present a distributionally robust formulation of a stochastic optimization problem for non-i.i.d vector autoregressive data. We use the Wasserstein distance to define robustness in the space of distributions and we show, using duality theory, that the problem is equivalent to a finite convex-concave saddle point pro…
Enhances FAVAR models with autoencoder for better economic forecasting and interpretability.
Paper proposes LATC for multivariate time series prediction and missing data imputation.
Global information is essential for dense prediction problems, whose goal is to compute a discrete or continuous label for each pixel in the images. Traditional convolutional layers in neural networks, initially designed for image classification, are restrictive in these problems since the filter size limits their rece…
Paper uses non-linear dimension reduction for better economic forecasting.
Neural autoregressive models are explicit density estimators that achieve state-of-the-art likelihoods for generative modeling. The D-dimensional data distribution is factorized into an autoregressive product of one-dimensional conditional distributions according to the chain rule. Data completion is a more involved ta…
Vector autoregressive models characterize a variety of time series in which linear combinations of current and past observations can be used to accurately predict future observations. For instance, each element of an observation vector could correspond to a different node in a network, and the parameters of an autoregr…
Efficient audio synthesis is an inherently difficult machine learning task, as human perception is sensitive to both global structure and fine-scale waveform coherence. Autoregressive models, such as WaveNet, model local structure at the expense of global latent structure and slow iterative sampling, while Generative A…
BAVART model combines VAR and BART for non-linear forecasting.
Linear attention in Transformers can be interpreted as dynamic VAR models.
Proposes PredVAR model for reduced-dimensional dynamics from noisy data.
ARMA cell simplifies neural autoregressive modeling for time series.
Representation learning seeks to expose certain aspects of observed data in a learned representation that's amenable to downstream tasks like classification. For instance, a good representation for 2D images might be one that describes only global structure and discards information about detailed texture. In this paper…
High-speed model accurately simulates neuromorphic devices.
Autoregressive feedback is considered a necessity for successful unconditional text generation using stochastic sequence models. However, such feedback is known to introduce systematic biases into the training process and it obscures a principle of generation: committing to global information and forgetting local nuanc…
mGENRE improves multilingual entity linking with autoregressive sequence prediction.
Develops a new framework to measure network connectedness across and within markets.
Incorporating nonlinearity is paramount to predicting the future states of a dynamical system, its response to shocks, and its underlying causal network. However, most existing methods for causality detection and impulse response, such as Vector Autoregression (VAR), assume linearity and are thus unable to capture the …
A new model trains prior and encoder/decoder networks simultaneously for efficient generation.
New method for estimating and testing impulse responses in high-dimensional VAR systems.
High-dimensional time series data exist in numerous areas such as finance, genomics, healthcare, and neuroscience. An unavoidable aspect of all such datasets is missing data, and dealing with this issue has been an important focus in statistics, control, and machine learning. In this work, we consider a high-dimensiona…
This paper explores how Transformers predict next tokens in autoregressive tasks.
Study compares local and global models for hierarchical forecasting accuracy.
Global methods outperform local in forecasting groups of time series, even in heterogeneous datasets.
Calculates local Granger causality for Gaussian and nonlinear systems.
We study sparse principal component analysis for high dimensional vector autoregressive time series under a doubly asymptotic framework, which allows the dimension to scale with the series length . We treat the transition matrix of time series as a nuisance parameter and directly apply sparse principal component…
We report on time-varying network connectedness within three banking systems: North America, the EU, and ASEAN. The original method by Diebold and Yilmaz is improved by using exponentially weighted daily returns and ridge regularization on vector autoregression (VAR) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). We…
Volatility is a key measure of risk in financial analysis. The high volatility of one financial asset today could affect the volatility of another asset tomorrow. These lagged effects among volatilities - which we call volatility spillovers - are studied using the Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model. We account for the p…
The paper develops fast Bayesian methods for estimating huge PVARs with competitive forecasts.
LMConv improves autoregressive models for image generation and completion.
Study on estimating sparse transition matrix of partially-observed VAR with noisy and sparse data.