We applied Deep Q-Network with a Convolutional Neural Network function approximator, which takes stock chart images as input, for making global stock market predictions. Our model not only yields profit in the stock market of the country where it was trained but generally yields profit in global stock markets. We train…
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48 results for “global stock prices”
We use insight from a model of earth tectonic plate movement to obtain a new understanding of the build up and release of stress in the price dynamics of the worlds stock exchanges. Nonlinearity enters the model due to a behavioral attribute of humans reacting disproportionately to big changes. This nonlinear response …
Regularities in stock marketsq-fin.GN
From the stock markets of six countries with high GDP, we study the stock indices, S&P 500 (NYSE, USA), SSE Composite (SSE, China), Nikkei (TSE, Japan), DAX (FSE, Germany), FTSE 100 (LSE, Britain) and NIFTY (NSE, India). The daily mean growth of the stock values is exponential. The daily price fluctuations about the me…
Study reveals 2020 stock crashes were mostly endogenous, not exogenous.
problem Identifying the cause of the 2020 global stock market crash.
method Applied log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) methodology to analyze stock market indexes.
result The 2020 stock market crashes were mostly endogenous, driven by systemic instability.
Develops a hybrid deep learning model for stock price prediction.
problem Predicting daily stock prices in the stock market.
method Representation learning with Stock2Vec embedding and temporal convolutional layers.
result Achieves better performance on stock price prediction than benchmarks.
Study compares CDS databases and finds discrepancies due to various factors.
problem Comparing discrepancies among CDS databases.
method Comparing five major sources of corporate CDS prices over 2004-2010.
result CMA quotes lead price discovery and databases disagree on stock-CDS return analysis.
LSTM model predicts stock prices with high accuracy in stable sectors but struggles with volatile ones.
problem Predicting stock prices in emerging markets with limited data.
method Developed and evaluated an LSTM network on historical OHLCV data and technical indicators.
result Strong predictive performance () for stable sectors, but challenges for volatile ones.
The study aims to explore the strength of causal relationship between stock price search interest and real stock market outcomes on worldwide equity market indices. Such a phenomenon could also be mediated by investor behavior and extent of news coverage. The stock-specific internet search trends data and corresponding…
This paper predicts stock prices during unusual events like the pandemic.
problem Lack of models to predict stock price changes during catastrophic events.
method ARIMA, LSTM, sentiment analysis models trained on historical data.
result Achieved 98% prediction accuracy for stock prices during anomalous circumstances.
Research uses SWT and BDLSTM to forecast stock and oil prices amid COVID-19.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on stock and oil prices forecasting.
method Integrates Stationary Wavelet Transform and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory networks.
result BDLSTM+WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in Crude Oil price forecasting.
Paper uses neural networks to analyze oil price impact on Iranian stock and industry indices.
problem Impact of oil price volatility on Tehran stock and industry indices.
method Feed-forward neural networks analysis of two periods: sanctions and post-sanctions.
result Neural networks predict stock and industry indices well, showing significant oil price volatility impact.
Following our previous investigation of the USA Standard and Poor index anti-bubble that started in August 2000, we analyze thirty eight world stock market indices and identify 21 anti-bubble. An ``anti-bubble'' is defined as a self-fulfilling decreasing price created by positive price-to-price feedbacks feeding overal…
We introduce a general class of stochastic processes driven by a multifractional Brownian motion (mBm) and study the estimation problems of their pointwise Hölder exponents (PHE) based on a new localized generalized quadratic variation approach (LGQV). By comparing our suggested approach with the other two existing ben…
Study uses APT and QR to identify risk factors affecting crude oil returns.
problem Determining the risk factors impacting crude oil returns.
method Employed Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression.
result Identified key risk factors: industrial production, inflation, energy prices, yield curve shape, and economic policy uncertainty.
MDGNN predicts stock prices by capturing multifaceted relations over time.
problem Challenges in predicting stock prices due to dynamic and intricate relations.
method MDGNN uses a discrete dynamic graph and Transformer structure to capture multifaceted relations and temporal evolution.
result MDGNN achieves the best performance in public datasets compared to SOTA methods.
The Interpretability of LSTM Models for Predicting Oil Company Stocks: Impact of Correlated Featuresq-fin.ST
Study shows adding correlated features doesn't improve LSTM model interpretability for oil stocks.
problem Improving interpretability of LSTM models for predicting oil company stocks.
method Designed and trained Standard LSTM networks using various correlated datasets.
result Adding correlated features does not enhance LSTM model interpretability.
Study examines impact of oil and gold prices on Tehran Stock Exchange.
problem Impact of oil and gold prices on Tehran Stock Exchange.
method ARIMA-Copula model, cross-validation, Clayton copula.
result TSE is indirectly influenced by gold price through other factors such as oil; TSE is not independent of oil price volatility.
Nostradamus: Weathering Worthq-fin.ST
Nostradamus links climate and stock market performance.
problem Understanding the impact of climate on stock prices.
method Analyzing historical data, climate indicators, and natural disasters.
result Significant correlation between climate and stock price fluctuations.
SAMBA predicts stock returns efficiently using Mamba and graph neural networks.
problem Accurate stock price predictions for financial returns.
method SAMBA integrates Mamba architecture with graph neural networks to achieve near-linear computational complexity.
result SAMBA significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models in prediction accuracy.
Improved genetic algorithm optimizes SVR for robust long-term stock index forecasting.
problem Inaccurate long-term stock price predictions.
method Adaptive Weighted Genetic Algorithm-Optimized SVR (IGA-SVR).
result Reduction in MAPE by 19.87% compared to LSTM and 50.03% compared to OGA-SVR.
A new test for volatility in clustered time series data, robust to distributional assumptions.
problem Volatility issues in clustered multiple time series data, especially in stock market indicators.
method Bootstrap method for multiple time series, accounting for contagion effect.
result The test is correctly sized and powerful, especially for stationary mean and contained volatility in fewer clusters.
The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of 7,796 worldwide companies for the period 2004 through 2013. We develop a panel reg…
We study precursors to the global market crash that occurred on all main stock exchanges throughout the world in October 2008 about three weeks after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on 15 September. We examine the collective behavior of stock returns and analyze the market mode, which is a market-wide c…
Modern approaches to stock pricing in quantitative finance are typically founded on the 'Black-Scholes model' and the underlying 'random walk hypothesis'. Empirical data indicate that this hypothesis works well in stable situations but, in abrupt transitions such as during an economical crisis, the random walk model fa…
Study examines asset pricing using various attention models, finding global self-attention and sliding window sparse attention models perform well.
problem Traditional asset pricing models miss temporal dependency and short memory issues.
method Investigates RNN attention models with various attention mechanisms for large-cap US stocks.
result Global self-attention and sliding window sparse attention models outperform in deriving returns and hedging risks, especially during the pandemic.
We propose a mathematical model for the word-of-mouth communications among stock investors through social networks and explore how the changes of the investors' social networks influence the stock price dynamics and vice versa. An investor is modeled as a Gaussian fuzzy set (a fuzzy opinion) with the center and standar…
Model explains stock price bubbles through debt crises and financial crashes.
problem Analyzing financial fragility and stock price bubbles.
method Stock-flow consistent model integrating macroeconomic and financial market dynamics.
result Model demonstrates how credit expansion and crash risk lead to recurrent boom-bust cycles.
Study finds price-based clustering outperforms AI and human methods in stock market analysis.
problem Investigates if AI can improve stock clustering compared to traditional methods.
method Compares price-based, human-informed, and AI-driven clustering methods using synthetic factor models.
result Price-based clustering reduces RMSE by 15.9% relative to GICS and 14.7% relative to LLM embeddings.
This paper analyzes the process of long-run co-movements and stock market globalization on the basis of cointegration tests and vector error correction (VEC) models. The cointegration tests used here allow for structural breaks to be explicitly modeled and breakpoints to be computed on a relative-time basis. The data u…
We analyzed cross-correlations between price fluctuations of global financial indices (20 daily stock indices over the world) and local indices (daily indices of 200 companies in the Korean stock market) by using random matrix theory (RMT). We compared eigenvalues and components of the largest and the second largest ei…
Stock market integration in the Latin American markets: further evidence from nonlinear modelingq-fin.ST
This article studies the financial integration between the six main Latin American markets and the US market in a nonlinear framework. Using the threshold cointegration techniques of Hansen and Seo (2002), we show significant threshold stock market linkages between Mexico, Chile and the US. Thus, the dynamics of these …
By incorporating market impact and asymmetric sensitivity into the evolutionary minority game, we study the coevolutionary dynamics of stock prices and investment strategies in financial markets. Both the stock price movement and the investors' global behavior are found to be closely related to the phase region they fa…
Nonlinearity in stock networksq-fin.ST
Stock networks, constructed from stock price time series, are a well-established tool for the characterization of complex behavior in stock markets. Following Mantegna's seminal paper, the linear Pearson's correlation coefficient between pairs of stocks has been the usual way to determine network edges. Recently, possi…
Since the beginning of the new millennium, stock markets went through every state from long-time troughs, trade suspensions to all-time highs. The literature on asset pricing hence assumes random processes to be underlying the movement of stock returns. Observed procyclicality and time-varying correlation of stock retu…
Combines CNN and Transformer for financial time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting financial time series, especially stock prices, is challenging due to short-term and long-term dependencies.
method Uses CNN for short-term dependencies and Transformer for long-term dependencies.
result Demonstrated superior performance in forecasting stock price changes compared to traditional methods.
We consider the effects of the global financial crisis through a local Korean financial market around the 2008 crisis. We analyze 185 individual stock prices belonging to the KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index), cosidering three time periods: the time before, during, and after the crisis. The complex networks gen…
Hybrid model predicts stock prices using online forum sentiments and popularity.
problem Predicting stock prices accurately considering investor sentiment.
method XLNET for sentiment analysis, BiLSTM-highway model integration, combining post popularity.
result Hybrid model outperforms traditional methods in stock price prediction.
AI model predicts stock prices using social media data and hybrid neural networks.
problem Predicting stock price movements during the COVID-19 pandemic.
method Integrates social media trends and historical stock data using a hybrid CNN-BLSTM framework.
result The proposed framework outperforms traditional models in predicting stock price movements.
Stock prices are driven by various factors. In particular, many individual investors who have relatively little financial knowledge rely heavily on the information from news stories when making investment decisions in the stock market. However, these stories may not reflect future stock prices because of the subjectivi…
Deep learning models predict stock prices with high accuracy.
problem Accurate prediction of stock prices despite market unpredictability.
method CNN and LSTM-based deep learning models trained on historical stock data.
result Models achieve high accuracy in forecasting future stock prices.
The study introduces a new stickiness parameter for stock prices using a non-linear model.
problem Understanding how closely individual stocks follow a stock index's price movements.
method Developed a non-linear pricing model inspired by tectonic plate movements to measure stickiness.
result Defined a stickiness parameter for stock price returns using a novel model.
The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is unknown. We show that the stock price can be better described by a function indicati…
The Time Function of Stock Priceq-fin.ST
The paper defines the time function of stock prices using a mathematical model.
problem Understanding the movement and predictability of stock prices over time.
method Empirical evidence and mathematical modeling of white noise.
result Derives auto-correlation function, displacement formula, and power spectral density of stock price movement.
Warrants with stock price dependent threshold conditions give the right to buy specially issued stocks, if the performance of the stock price satisfies some requirements. Existence of these derivatives changes the price process of the underlying. We show that in the presence of such warrants one cannot assume that the …
The paper explains stock predictability by integrating rational finance without behavioral finance assumptions.
problem The predictability of stock returns observed in the stock market.
method Developed a statistical model within rational finance to incorporate stock predictability into the Black-Scholes formula.
result Empirical analysis shows asymmetric predictability by spot and option traders, and potential stock return predictors.
Quantum algorithms improve stock price prediction accuracy.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy using quantum techniques.
method Extracted stock price indicators, used QA and PCA for feature selection and dimensionality reduction, trained QSVM for binary classification.
result Quantum Support Vector Machine (QSVM) outperformed classical models in stock price prediction accuracy.
Deep learning predicts cross-sectional stock prices for practical investment.
problem Predicting stock prices using cross-sectional factors.
method Deep learning model for daily stock price prediction.
result Profitable investment framework demonstrated in Japanese stock market.
Game-theoretic model captures investor interactions for stock price forecasting.
problem Complex market dynamics driving stock price movements.
method Game-theoretic modeling of heterogeneous investor interactions in a dynamic graph structure.
result Our method outperforms state-of-the-art stock price forecasting methods.