A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
UK universities pension scheme valuation study shows high dependence on gilt yields.
We derive a closed-form formula for computing bond prices between coupon payments. Our results cover both the `Treasury' and the `Street' pricing methods used by sovereign and corporate issuers. We apply our formulas to two UK gilts, the 8% Treasury Gilt 2015, and the 0.5% Treasury Gilt 2022, and show that we can obtai…
Repo dealers' market power affects bond prices by up to 2 percentage points.
<ENGLISH> Consider a closed, smooth manifold M of nonpositive sectional curvature. Write p:UM-> M for the unit tangent bundle over M and let R_> denote the subset consisting of all vectors of higher rank. This subset is closed and invariant under the geodesic flow on UM. We will define the structured dimension sdim(R_>…
Certain momentum-dependent terms in the fermion sector of the Lorentz-violating Standard Model Extension (SME) yield solvable classical lagrangians of a type not mentioned in the literature. These cases yield new relatively simple examples of Finsler and pseudo-Finsler structures. One of the cases involves antisymmetri…
The Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) Bayes framework (McAllester, 1999) can incorporate knowledge about the learning algorithm and (data) distribution through the use of distribution-dependent priors, yielding tighter generalization bounds on data-dependent posteriors. Using this flexibility, however, is difficult,…
The paper analyzes the mathematics of the relationship between the default risk and yield-to-maturity of a coupon bond. It is shown that the yield-to-maturity is driven not only by the default probability and recovery rate of the bond but also by other contractual characteristics of the bond that are not commonly assoc…
We discuss a simple extension of the Ho and Lee model with generic time-dependent drift in which: 1) we compute bond prices analytically; 2) the yield curve is sensible and the asymptotic yield is positive; and 3) our analytical solution provides a clean and simple way of separating volatility from the drift in the sho…
Crop yield prediction is extremely challenging due to its dependence on multiple factors such as crop genotype, environmental factors, management practices, and their interactions. This paper presents a deep learning framework using convolutional neural networks (CNN) and recurrent neural networks (RNN) for crop yield …
Deep learning models forecast multiple yield curves with improved accuracy.
Using a recently introduced method to quantify the time varying lead-lag dependencies between pairs of economic time series (the thermal optimal path method), we test two fundamental tenets of the theory of fixed income: (i) the stock market variations and the yield changes should be anti-correlated; (ii) the change in…
Develops methods to learn correlation potentials for time-dependent Kohn-Sham systems.
Cover's celebrated theorem states that the long run yield of a properly chosen "universal" portfolio is as good as the long run yield of the best retrospectively chosen constant rebalanced portfolio. The "universality" pertains to the fact that this result is model-free, i.e., not dependent on an underlying stochastic …
We analyze a simple prefiltered variation of the least squares estimator for the problem of estimation with biased, semi-parametric noise, an error model studied more broadly in causal statistics and active learning. We prove an oracle inequality which demonstrates that this procedure provably mitigates the variance in…
Using the descriptive method of log-periodic power laws (LPPL) based on a theory of behavioral herding, we use a battery of parametric and non-parametric tests to demonstrate the existence of an antibubble in the yields with maturities larger than 1 year since October 2000. The concept of ``antibubble'' describes the e…
Project estimates risk-neutral dependence from option prices.
The discrete-time multifactor Vasiček model is a tractable Gaussian spot rate model. Typically, two- or three-factor versions allow one to capture the dependence structure between yields with different times to maturity in an appropriate way. In practice, re-calibration of the model to the prevailing market conditions …
In many applications, data come with a natural ordering. This ordering can often induce local dependence among nearby variables. However, in complex data, the width of this dependence may vary, making simple assumptions such as a constant neighborhood size unrealistic. We propose a framework for learning this local dep…
US Yield curve has recently collapsed to its most flattened level since subprime crisis and is close to the inversion. This fact has gathered attention of investors around the world and revived the discussion of proper modeling and forecasting yield curve, since changes in interest rate structure are believed to repres…
Unified framework matches equity and bond yields.
Mathematical models with time dependent parameters are of great interest in financial Mathematics because they capture real life scenarios in the financial market. In this study, via the Lie group technique, we analyse evolution-type equations with time dependent parameters and give the general symmetry structure of th…
This paper uses CausalGANs and RL with LLM to predict bond yields.
We present three models of stock price with time-dependent interest rate, dividend yield, and volatility, respectively, that allow for explicit forms of the optimal exercise boundary of the finite maturity American put option. The optimal exercise boundary satisfies the nonlinear integral equation of Volterra type. We …
Crop yield forecasting is the methodology of predicting crop yields prior to harvest. The availability of accurate yield prediction frameworks have enormous implications from multiple standpoints, including impact on the crop commodity futures markets, formulation of agricultural policy, as well as crop insurance ratin…
The paper deals with regression problems, in which the nonsmooth target is assumed to switch between different operating modes. Specifically, piecewise smooth (PWS) regression considers target functions switching deterministically via a partition of the input space, while switching regression considers arbitrary switch…
Using Weitzenböck techniques on any compact Riemannian spin manifold we derive a general inequality depending on a real parameter and joining the spectrum of the Dirac operator with terms depending on the Ricci tensor and its first covariant derivatives. The discussion of this inequality yields vanishing theorems for t…
Study improves sampling from non-log-concave distributions using Fisher information.
We introduce two versions of a new sketch for approximately embedding the Gaussian kernel into Euclidean inner product space. These work by truncating infinite expansions of the Gaussian kernel, and carefully invoking the RecursiveTensorSketch [Ahle et al. SODA 2020]. After providing concentration and approximation pro…
The limit of energies of a sequence of harmonic maps as their annular domains approach the boundary of moduli space depends upon the boundary point approached. The infinite energy case is associated with limits of images containing ruled surfaces. The finite energy case yields a limit of images, under a suitable topolo…
Strong worst-case performance bounds for episodic reinforcement learning exist but fortunately in practice RL algorithms perform much better than such bounds would predict. Algorithms and theory that provide strong problem-dependent bounds could help illuminate the key features of what makes a RL problem hard and reduc…
Unexpectedly, weighted Pareto variables are stochastically dominant.
Proposes logistic-beta process for modeling dependent probabilities with beta marginals.
New algorithm speeds up MCMC for complex distributions.
This study analyzes factors affecting China's stock market volatility.
The paper uses causal machine learning to optimize rework decisions in manufacturing.
Improved gap-dependent bounds for reinforcement learning with linear approximations.
A new model explains relative spreads between economies using dynamic Nelson-Siegel and functional regression.
Global sensitivity analysis with variance-based measures suffers from several theoretical and practical limitations, since they focus only on the variance of the output and handle multivariate variables in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce a new class of sensitivity indices based on dependence measures which o…
Sharp large deviations and Gibbs conditioning for portfolio credit risk models.
The paper develops a new model to evaluate policies in complex temporal/spatial experiments.
Model explains yield curve dynamics using order flow shocks.
New method tests Granger non-causality in panel data with cross-sectional dependencies.
We present an improved analysis of the Euler-Maruyama discretization of the Langevin diffusion. Our analysis does not require global contractivity, and yields polynomial dependence on the time horizon. Compared to existing approaches, we make an additional smoothness assumption, and improve the existing rate from $O(η)…
Novel signature approach for pricing and hedging path-dependent options with market frictions.
Improved adaptive rates for Lipschitz bandit problem.
Representation and learning of long-range dependencies is a central challenge confronted in modern applications of machine learning to sequence data. Yet despite the prominence of this issue, the basic problem of measuring long-range dependence, either in a given data source or as represented in a trained deep model, r…
While defaults are rare events, losses can be substantial even for credit portfolios with a large number of contracts. Therefore, not only a good evaluation of the probability of default is crucial, but also the severity of losses needs to be estimated. The recovery rate is often modeled independently with regard to th…
We study 'meta-dependence' in conditional independence tests across different empirical distributions.