The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
Unified probabilistic foundation for fuzzy simplicial sets in dimensionality reduction.
problem Lack of clear probabilistic interpretation in fuzzy simplicial sets.
method Introducing a probabilistic framework explaining fuzzy simplicial sets as marginals of probability measures on simplicial sets.
result Unified probabilistic theoretical foundation for fuzzy simplicial sets.
Proposes a new framework for open set recognition using conditional probabilistic generative models.
problem Unknown samples can mislead traditional deep neural networks during testing.
method Conditional Probabilistic Generative Models (CPGM) that combine generative models with discriminative information.
result Significantly outperforms baselines on multiple benchmark datasets.
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit …
Probabilistic pseudo knots model uncertain knot diagrams.
problem Modeling knots with unresolved crossings.
method Assign probabilities to undetermined crossings; define probabilistic equivalence and extend classical knot invariants.
result Capture uncertainty in physical, biological, and computational contexts.
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
problem Adversarial attacks on neural models outputting probability distributions.
method Effective generation of adversarial attacks through Monte-Carlo estimation and Bayesian conditioning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of attacks with small input perturbations.
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in continuous latent-space models.
method Continuous mixtures of tractable probabilistic models with finite integration points.
result Hybrid models achieve state-of-the-art performance in density estimation.
Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.
problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.
Framework uses probabilistic programming for physics simulation in games.
problem Efficiently simulate physics in games using probabilistic programming.
method Combines model-free and model-based approaches to improve efficiency.
result Model outperforms model-free or model-based approaches alone.
This paper explores semi-qualitative probabilistic networks (SQPNs) that combine numeric and qualitative information. We first show that exact inferences with SQPNs are NPPP-Complete. We then show that existing qualitative relations in SQPNs (plus probabilistic logic and imprecise assessments) can be dealt effectively …
We extend probabilistic programming to handle conditioning on marginal distributions.
problem Conditioning probabilistic programs on marginal distributions of observable variables.
method We define and implement stochastic conditioning, allowing inference in probabilistic programs conditioned on marginal distributions.
result We demonstrate the effectiveness of stochastic conditioning in various real-life scenarios.
ICON learns differential equation operators from examples, revealing probabilistic inference.
problem Learning operators for differential equations from limited examples.
method Probabilistic operator learning using ICON architectures trained on diverse datasets.
result ICON implicitly performs Bayesian inference on solution operators.
Generative networks minimize predictive scoring rules for probabilistic forecasting.
problem Evaluating and improving probabilistic forecasts using generative models.
method Training generative networks to minimize predictive-sequential scoring rules on temporal sequences.
result Our method outperforms adversarial approaches in probabilistic calibration.
Solves optimal control with state constraints using probabilistic methods.
problem Optimal control of diffusion processes within state constraints.
method Probabilistic representation and optimal control under mild conditions.
result Explicit formulae for optimally controlled dynamics in examples.
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
Paper introduces PCP for efficient, reliable predictive inference.
problem Developing reliable predictive inference methods for target variables.
method Probabilistic conformal prediction using conditional random samples.
result PCP provides sharper predictive sets compared to existing methods.
New method for probabilistic modeling of integer submodular functions.
problem Lack of probabilistic modeling for integer submodular functions.
method Proposed Generalized Multilinear Extension and block-coordinate ascent algorithm.
result Demonstrated effectiveness and viability on real-world datasets.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
The book explores universal time-series forecasting using mixture predictors.
problem Sequential probability forecasting in a general setting.
method Mixture predictors combining multiple predictors.
result Universality of mixture predictors in a general probabilistic setting.
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understandi…
In a recent paper, the authors proposed a general methodology for probabilistic learning on manifolds. The method was used to generate numerical samples that are statistically consistent with an existing dataset construed as a realization from a non-Gaussian random vector. The manifold structure is learned using diffus…
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
Normal-bundle bootstrap generates new data preserving geometric structure.
problem Probabilistic models often exhibit salient geometric structure.
method NBB method decomposes probability measure into manifold and normal spaces, estimates manifold as density ridge, and generates new data by bootstrapping projection vectors.
result NBB generates new data that preserves the geometric structure of a given data set.
Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.
problem Complexity of electricity load forecasting due to changing drivers and local generation.
method Adaptive probabilistic approach using Kalman filter and online gradient descent.
result Adaptive probabilistic forecasts improve performance in both point and probabilistic forecasting.
Stein's method improves probabilistic inference and learning.
problem Improving probabilistic inference and learning methods.
method Constructing Stein discrepancies from Stein operators and Stein sets, discussing their properties.
result Connection between Stein operators and Stein variational gradient descent.
This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.
problem The challenge of creating robust probabilistic predictions that remain consistent under distribution shifts.
method A causality-inspired framework to investigate invariance and robustness of probabilistic predictions with respect to proper scoring rules.
result Arbitrary distribution shifts do not admit invariant and robust probabilistic predictions, unlike point predictions.
Unified framework for learning flexible probabilistic programs using DPP and PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Learning and generalizing from complex probabilistic models.
method Unified DPP representation and PAC-Bayes bounds for stochastic programs.
result Improved performance and generalization prediction using flexible DPP model representations and learned complexity measures.
Efficiently combines autoregressive and set-based models for joint distributions.
problem Joint distributions over multiple predictions from set-based models.
method Causal autoregressive buffer that caches context and captures dependencies.
result Up to 20x faster joint sampling and density evaluation, up to 7x lower memory usage.
Generative AI improves surrogate models by blending LF and HF data.
problem Data scarcity between high-fidelity and low-fidelity simulations.
method Probabilistic multi-fidelity surrogate framework using generative transfer learning.
result The model achieves HF accuracy with fewer HF evaluations.
Probabilistic numerics expands numerical tasks with black box methods.
problem Difficult conditioning of random variables in numerical tasks.
method Construct probabilistic numerical methods based on final outputs, extrapolating limiting quantities.
result Higher orders of convergence achieved in various numerical tasks.
Auto-Associative models cover a large class of methods used in data analysis. In this paper, we describe the generals properties of these models when the projection component is linear and we propose and test an easy to implement Probabilistic Semi-Linear Auto- Associative model in a Gaussian setting. We show it is a g…
New method models asymmetric data with improved tail dependence.
problem Asymmetric data and tail dependence modeling.
method Generalized Skew-t Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis.
result Improved modeling of asymmetric data with tail effects.
New framework uses conformal predictions for robust, scalable machine learning classification.
problem Developing robust and reliable machine learning models for classification.
method Introducing scalable classifiers linked to statistical order theory and probabilistic learning theory, defining a score function and conformal safety set.
result Demonstrated practical implications in cybersecurity for identifying DNS tunneling attacks.
We describe a probabilistic (generative) view of affinity matrices along with inference algorithms for a subclass of problems associated with data clustering. This probabilistic view is helpful in understanding different models and algorithms that are based on affinity functions OF the data. IN particular, we show how(…
New method for probabilistic prediction sets with conditional validity.
problem Marginal coverage guarantee of existing methods.
method Combines conformal methods with approximate conditional validity.
result Consistently outperforms existing approaches in conditional coverage.
Probabilistic fair clustering tackles uncertain group membership.
problem Fair clustering with imperfect group membership.
method Probabilistic algorithms for metric graphs and metric membership.
result Approximation ratio guarantees for fair clustering.
DMVI uses diffusion models for efficient probabilistic inference in PPLs.
problem Efficient probabilistic inference in complex probabilistic programming languages.
method DMVI employs diffusion models as variational approximations to the posterior distribution, optimizing a bound on the marginal likelihood.
result DMVI produces more accurate posterior inferences than existing methods in PPLs with similar computational cost and less manual tuning.
PVI combines federated learning and variational inference for probabilistic model training.
problem Federated learning's lack of probabilistic model uncertainty estimation.
method Partitioned variational inference (PVI) framework for federated probabilistic model training.
result PVI unifies fragmented literature and demonstrates effectiveness in various federated settings.
Probabilistic active meta-learning improves data efficiency in robotics.
problem Data-efficient learning in robotics where data collection is expensive.
method Conceptualizing meta-learning with a probabilistic latent variable model for sequential task selection.
result Improves data efficiency compared to baselines on simulated robotic experiments.
A new probabilistic approach improves deep metric learning by considering image uncertainties and class-specific variances.
problem Proxy-based deep metric learning struggles with image uncertainties and class-specific structures.
method Introduces non-isotropic probabilistic proxy-based deep metric learning using directional von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result Improves generalization performance and competitive on standard benchmarks.
Enhanced probabilistic sampling on manifolds using Double Diffusion Maps and Geometric Harmonics.
problem Overfitting and loss of generalization in PLoM when N is small and dimensionality approaches N.
method Extending PLoM with Double Diffusion Maps and Geometric Harmonics to handle small N and high-dimensional data.
result Effective and robust method for generating statistically consistent realizations from limited data.
Paper integrates real data into probabilistic models using Fourier transform.
problem Learning from constrained data sets in high dimensions.
method Functional approach based on weak formulation of Fourier transform of probability measures.
result Estimation of posterior probability measures for QoI and QoI with control parameter.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Despite the recent success in probabilistic modeling and their applications, generative models trained using traditional inference techniques struggle to adapt to new distributions, even when the target distribution may be closely related to the ones seen during training. In this work, we present a doubly-amortized var…
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
problem Generative models lack awareness of decision costs.
method Integrates a decision loss into the training objective.
result Improves cost-sensitive forecast accuracy.
MD-CGAN models forecast time series with probabilistic posterior distributions.
problem Limited applications of GANs in time series forecasting, especially with probabilistic predictions.
method Mixture Density Conditional Generative Adversarial Model (MD-CGAN) using Gaussian mixture output.
result MD-CGAN outperforms benchmarks, especially in noisy time series.
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
problem Efficient exact inference in probabilistic models.
method SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, leveraging new techniques for scalability.
result SPPL achieves up to 3500x speedups in exact inference.
New probabilistic constructions for Kähler-Einstein metrics.
problem Finding Kähler-Einstein metrics on complex algebraic varieties.
method Microcanonical measures and maximum entropy principles.
result Novel characterizations and evolution equations.