A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Deep learning optimizes gas storage operations.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts…
In this paper we treat a gas storage valuation problem as a Markov Decision Process. As opposed to existing literature we model the gas price process as a regime-switching model. Such a model has shown to fit market data quite well in Chen and Forsyth (2010). Before we apply a numerical algorithm to solve the problem, …
We consider solution of stochastic storage problems through regression Monte Carlo (RMC) methods. Taking a statistical learning perspective, we develop the dynamic emulation algorithm (DEA) that unifies the different existing approaches in a single modular template. We then investigate the two central aspects of regres…
Study simulates Variance Gamma processes for energy derivatives pricing.
Underwater gas reservoirs are used in many situations. In particular, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) facilities that are currently being developed intend to store greenhouse gases inside geological formations in the deep sea. In these formations, however, the gas might percolate, leaking back to the water and eventua…
Model forecasts natural gas consumption with Fourier series and feedback.
The study models and forecasts natural gas prices using skewed, heavy-tailed distributions.
We consider a class of discrete time stochastic control problems motivated by some financial applications. We use a pathwise stochastic control approach to provide a dual formulation of the problem. This enables us to develop a numerical technique for obtaining an estimate of the value function which improves on purely…
PIML enhances machine learning for subsurface energy systems.
The recently announced Energy Union by the European Commission is the most recent step in a series of developments aiming at integrating the EU's gas markets to increase social welfare (SW) and security of gas supply. Based on a spatial partial equilibrium model, we analyze the changes in consumption, prices, and SW up…
This paper presents several numerical applications of deep learning-based algorithms that have been introduced in [HPBL18]. Numerical and comparative tests using TensorFlow illustrate the performance of our different algorithms, namely control learning by performance iteration (algorithms NNcontPI and ClassifPI), contr…
SNAPO optimizes policies for complex sequential decisions using differentiable simulation.
The process of exploring and exploiting Oil and Gas (O&G) generates a lot of data that can bring more efficiency to the industry. The opportunities for using data mining techniques in the "digital oil-field" remain largely unexplored or uncharted. With the high rate of data expansion, companies are scrambling to develo…
In this paper, we introduce an extension of a Brownian bridge with a random length by including uncertainty also in the pinning level of the bridge. The main result of this work is that unlike for deterministic pinning point, the bridge process fails to be Markovian if the pining point distribution is absolutely contin…
A new Latent Diffusion Model generates realistic reservoir facies.
Most energy and commodity markets exhibit mean-reversion and occasional distinctive price spikes, which results in demand for derivative products which protect the holder against high prices. To this end, in this paper we present exact and fast methodologies for the simulation of the spot price dynamics modeled as the …
Paper introduces MN-DAG for modeling evolving causal relationships in multivariate time series.
This paper presents the R package GAS for the analysis of time series under the Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) framework of Creal et al. (2013) and Harvey (2013). The distinctive feature of the GAS approach is the use of the score function as the driver of time-variation in the parameters of nonlinear models. T…
GAS models have been recently proposed in time-series econometrics as valuable tools for signal extraction and prediction. This paper details how financial risk managers can use GAS models for Value-at-Risk (VaR) prediction using the novel GAS package for R. Details and code snippets for prediction, comparison and back…
For a given real generic curve $\ga: S^1\to \Bbb {RP}^n$ let $D_\ga$ denote the ruled hypersurface in consisting of all osculating subspaces to $\ga$ of codimension 2. A curve $\ga: S^1\to \Bbb {RP}^n$ is called convex if the total number of its intersection points (counted with multiplicities) with any h…
This paper analyzes Ethereum's gas fees and their derivatives, providing a comprehensive model.
Subsurface applications including geothermal, geological carbon sequestration, oil and gas, etc., typically involve maximizing either the extraction of energy or the storage of fluids. Characterizing the subsurface is extremely complex due to heterogeneity and anisotropy. Due to this complexity, there are uncertainties…
Geodesic X-ray transform proves injective for smooth one-forms on gas giant manifolds.
Study the Hessian geometry of an ideal gas in a centrifuge.
The prediction of the gas production from mature gas wells, due to their complex end-of-life behavior, is challenging and crucial for operational decision making. In this paper, we apply a modified deep LSTM model for prediction of the gas flow rates in mature gas wells, including the uncertainties in input parameters.…
In this paper we study the pricing and hedging of structured products in energy markets, such as swing and virtual gas storage, using the exponential utility indifference pricing approach in a general incomplete multivariate market model driven by finitely many stochastic factors. The buyer of such contracts is allowed…
Improved GAS models using trees and forests for better forecasts.
This study compares GNNs and GA-MLPs, finding GA-MLPs can distinguish graphs but not count walks.
Game theory models storage investment to balance market competition and profits.
Paper proposes GAS-ALD model for financial risk prediction.
Optimizes routing in decentralized exchanges with gas fees.
We calculate the free energy of Coulomb gas systems on Riemann surfaces.
Study the geometry of gas giant planets to infer their internal structure.
GAS-Norm improves deep learning time series forecasting in non-stationary settings.
Modeling gas fee competition in decentralized exchanges to optimize arbitrage profits.
The study finds a long-term relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
In this work we analyse a stochastic control problem for the valuation of a natural gas power station while taking into account operating characteristics. Both electricity and gas spot price processes exhibit mean-reverting spikes and Markov regime-switches. The Levy regime-switching model incorporates the effects of d…
The objective of this paper is to introduce the notion of generalized almost statistical (briefly, GAS) convergence of bounded real sequences, which generalizes the notion of almost convergence as well as statistical convergence of bounded real sequences. As a special kind of Banach limit functional, we also introduce …
We consider the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving (two-body) collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce saving propensity of agents, such that each agent saves a fraction of its money and trades with t…
We consider the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving (two-body) collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce saving propensity of agents, such that each agent saves a fraction of its money and trades with t…
New method assesses energy storage value beyond cost reduction.
Blockchain scaling reduces gas fees, allowing more frequent liquidity updates and concentration.
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
Monitoring gas turbine combustors health, in particular, early detecting abnormal behaviors and incipient faults, is critical in ensuring gas turbines operating efficiently and in preventing costly unplanned maintenance. One popular means of detecting combustor abnormalities is through continuously monitoring exhaust g…
Paper uses neural networks to predict NOx emissions from gas turbines.
The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new growth adjusted price-earnings measure (GA-P/E) and assess its efficacy as measure of value and predictor of future stock returns. Taking inspiration from the interpretation of the traditional price-earnings ratio as a period of time, the new measure computes the requisit…