The study finds a long-term relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
problem Examining the relationship between Dubai crude oil and US natural gas prices.
method Used unit root and cointegration tests, ARDL cointegration technique, and Toda-Yamamoto causality test.
result There is a long-run relationship with unidirectional causality from Dubai crude oil to US natural gas.
Paper introduces a new volatility model for natural gas markets and discusses swing option pricing.
problem Modeling price and storage dynamics in natural gas markets with path-dependent volatility.
method Developed a novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model and used deep learning for swing option pricing.
result Proposed a deep learning method for numerical approximations of swing option pricing.
We consider the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving (two-body) collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce saving propensity λ of agents, such that each agent saves a fraction λ of its money and trades with t…
The recently announced Energy Union by the European Commission is the most recent step in a series of developments aiming at integrating the EU's gas markets to increase social welfare (SW) and security of gas supply. Based on a spatial partial equilibrium model, we analyze the changes in consumption, prices, and SW up…
Modeling gas fee competition in decentralized exchanges to optimize arbitrage profits.
problem Gas fees and transaction ordering in decentralized exchanges create arbitrage opportunities.
method Developed a first equilibrium model of gas fee competition between two arbitrageurs under three transaction reversion settings.
result Mixed equilibria exist, and their characteristics depend on inventory risk and transaction settings.
Swing options on the gas market are american style option where daily quantities exercices are constrained and global quantities exerciced each year constrained too. The option holder has to decide each day how much he consumes of the quantities satisfying the constraints and tries to use a strategy in order to maximiz…
Optimizes routing in decentralized exchanges with gas fees.
problem Routing in decentralized exchanges with fixed gas fees.
method General optimization framework with mixed-integer model, incorporating gas fees.
result Explicit Karush-Kuhn-Tucker system linking prices, fees, and activation.
We consider the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving (two-body) collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce saving propensity λ of agents, such that each agent saves a fraction λ of its money and trades with t…
This research uses reinforcement learning to find optimal emission offsets in greenhouse gas markets.
problem Finding optimal emission offsets in greenhouse gas markets to control excess emissions.
method Utilized reinforcement learning, specifically Nash-DQN, to estimate market Nash equilibria.
result Emitting firms can achieve significant financial savings by abiding by the Nash equilibria found in the market.
The recent liberalization of the electricity and gas markets has resulted in the growth of energy exchanges and modelling problems. In this paper, we modelize jointly gas and electricity spot prices using a mean-reverting model which fits the correlations structures for the two commodities. The dynamics are based on Or…
This study introduces a new GAS blending ensemble model for Bitcoin price prediction.
problem Predicting Bitcoin price fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market.
method Integrates advanced ensemble learning methods, feature selection algorithms, and sentiment analysis.
result The GAS model demonstrates excellent performance in daily Bitcoin trend prediction.
This paper considers ideal gas-like models of trading markets, where each agent is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally, these models introduce different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Unlike these traditi…
Paper models uncertainty in electricity and gas markets to assess its impact.
problem Addressing uncertainties in coupled electricity and gas markets.
method Integrated and stochastic optimisation approaches for large-scale energy systems.
result Quantifies the value of encoding uncertainty in models.
The paper models natural gas futures prices and volatility, using Monte Carlo and reinforcement learning.
problem Hedging and selecting delivery strategies in natural gas markets.
method Dynamical model for futures prices, least-square Monte Carlo simulation, reinforcement learning.
result Calibrated futures price quotes and implied volatility smiles for different delivery periods.
We have numerically simulated the ideal-gas models of trading markets, where each agent is identified with a gas molecule and each trading as an elastic or money-conserving two-body collision. Unlike in the ideal gas, we introduce (quenched) saving propensity of the agents, distributed widely between the agents ($0 \le…
Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics is offering models of markets as complex systems, such as the gas-like model, able to predict money distributions observed in real economies. However, this model reveals some technical hitches to expl…
Optimizes U.S. stock portfolios with natural gas and crude oil to reduce risk and enhance returns.
problem Reduces portfolio risk and enhances returns by diversifying with natural gas and crude oil.
method Uses time-varying multivariate copula analysis and variance regimes to handle structural changes in asset prices.
result Minimizes portfolio variance, semi-variance, and tail risk with or without return constraints.
Modeling financial markets as gas molecules, the paper predicts phase transitions similar to water and steam.
problem Understanding the dynamics of financial markets through phase transitions.
method Developed a lattice gas model equivalent to the Ising model on a social network, analyzing critical exponents and auto-correlations.
result Financial market dynamics exhibit phase transition-like behavior, with critical exponents analogous to water and steam.
In simulations of some economic gas-like models, the asymptotic regime shows an exponential wealth distribution, independently of the initial wealth distribution given to the system. The appearance of this statistical equilibrium for this type of gas-like models is explained in a rigorous analytical way.
This paper considers the ideal gas-like model of trading markets, where each individual is identified as a gas molecule that interacts with others trading in elastic or money-conservative collisions. Traditionally this model introduces different rules of random selection and exchange between pair agents. Real economic …
We discuss the ideal gas like models of a trading market. The effect of savings on the distribution have been thoroughly reviewed. The market with fixed saving factors leads to a Gamma-like distribution. In a market with quenched random saving factors for its agents we show that the steady state income (m) distributi…
The paper examines how cheaper and faster chains affect Uniswap v3 liquidity and profitability.
problem Impact of cheaper and faster chains on Uniswap v3 liquidity and profitability.
method Comparative analysis of Uniswap v3 activity on different chains with varying gas prices and block times.
result Liquidity providers are more capital efficient and receive higher fee returns on cheaper and faster chains.
We analyze an ideal gas like models of a trading market. We propose a new fit for the money distribution in the fixed or uniform saving market. For the marketwith quenched random saving factors for its agents we show that the steady state income (m) distribution P(m) in the model has a power law tail with Pareto in…
Study analyzes European energy markets' reactions to 2022 events using Bayesian methods.
problem Detecting structural breakpoints in energy and financial markets during turbulent times.
method Combines Hurst exponent for market efficiency, BEAST for abrupt changes, and seasonal/trend analysis.
result Markets exhibit varied reactions to critical events, affecting their trends and breakpoints.
We describe an agent-based simulation of a fictional (but feasible) information trading business. The Gas Price Information Trader (GPIT) buys information about real-time gas prices in a metropolitan area from drivers and resells the information to drivers who need to refuel their vehicles. Our simulation uses real wor…
Study compares costs and arbitrage in CEXs vs DEXs, finding DEXs better for large trades.
problem Comparing transaction costs and arbitrage in crypto exchanges.
method Comprehensive dataset analysis of transaction costs and no-arbitrage deviations.
result Fixed gas fees in DEXs impose a significant burden on small trades, while CEXs offer more competitive costs for larger trades.
This work models GHG offset credit markets to find optimal strategies for market participants.
problem Optimizing GHG offset credit markets to reduce emissions and penalize excess emissions.
method Characterized optimal behavior in single-player and two-player GHG offset credit markets using optimal stopping and control problems, and mixed-Nash equilibria.
result Market participants benefit from optimal OC trading and generation, highlighting the importance of acting optimally.
This paper focuses on the valuation and hedging of gas storage facilities, using a spot-based valuation framework coupled with a financial hedging strategy implemented with futures contracts. The first novelty consist in proposing a model that unifies the dynamics of the futures curve and the spot price, which accounts…
Blockchain scaling reduces gas fees, allowing more frequent liquidity updates and concentration.
problem Adverse selection risk and high gas fees on decentralized exchanges.
method Instrumental variables analysis using blockchain scaling solutions (Arbitrum, Polygon) as instruments.
result Higher repositioning intensity and precision lead to greater liquidity concentration, benefiting small trades.
Economy is demanding new models, able to understand and predict the evolution of markets. To this respect, Econophysics offers models of markets as complex systems, that try to comprehend macro-, system-wide states of the economy from the interaction of many agents at micro-level. One of these models is the gas-like mo…
Study finds average 2.02 bps loss in automated market maker routing.
problem Measuring sub-optimality in automated market maker routing.
method Three reproducible optimal benchmarks: SCO, FVO, G-FVO; bisection-based algorithm for optimal routing.
result Average 2.02 bps loss per trade, \$24 million total loss.
How does dynamic price information flow among Northern European electricity spot prices and prices of major electricity generation fuel sources? We use time series models combined with new advances in causal inference to answer these questions. Applying our methods to weekly Nordic and German electricity prices, and oi…
Deep learning optimizes gas storage operations.
problem Optimizing underground natural gas storage operations.
method Reinforcement learning techniques applied to high-dimensional forward markets with constraints.
result Performance of deep learning method superior to least-squares Monte-Carlo approach.
We analyze the ideal gas like models of markets and review the different cases where a `savings' factor changes the nature and shape of the distribution of wealth. These models can produce similar distribution of wealth as observed across varied economies. We present a more realistic model where the saving factor can v…
In this work we analyse a stochastic control problem for the valuation of a natural gas power station while taking into account operating characteristics. Both electricity and gas spot price processes exhibit mean-reverting spikes and Markov regime-switches. The Levy regime-switching model incorporates the effects of d…
In this article we present a continuous time model for natural gas and crude oil future prices. Its main feature is the possibility to link both energies in the long term and in the short term. For each energy, the future returns are represented as the sum of volatility functions driven by motions. Under the risk neutr…
Model improves volatility estimation for LNG markets.
problem LNG markets have spatial structure with different price dynamics at hubs.
method Joint modeling strategy using high-frequency data from thickly-traded hubs.
result Model has superior predictive performance for risk management metrics.
High-fee pools attract more liquidity but execute less volume; low-fee pools have more stable LPs.
problem Optimal liquidity supply and execution on decentralized exchanges with fixed gas costs.
method Analysis of Uniswap data to compare high- and low-fee pools.
result Fragmented liquidity leads to more LPs and competition, improving overall market efficiency.
Empirical analysis of financial market trends and reversions across various time scales.
problem Understanding trends and reversions in financial markets over different time scales.
method Analysis of 14 years of futures tick data, 30 years of daily futures prices, 330 years of monthly asset prices, and yearly financial data since medieval times.
result Markets exhibit trending and reversion regimes with different time scales, explaining trends persistence and reversions.
In terms of transfer entropy, we investigated the strength and the direction of information transfer in the US stock market. Through the directionality of the information transfer, the more influential company between the correlated ones can be found and also the market leading companies are selected. Our entropy analy…
Designs a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
problem Designing a framework for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
method Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework, affine functions, Girsanov kernel, measure changes.
result Validates measure changes for forward contracts in power and gas markets.
In this paper we treat a gas storage valuation problem as a Markov Decision Process. As opposed to existing literature we model the gas price process as a regime-switching model. Such a model has shown to fit market data quite well in Chen and Forsyth (2010). Before we apply a numerical algorithm to solve the problem, …
Study examines economic impact of wind energy on Colombian electricity market.
problem Impact of wind energy on Colombian electricity market pricing and conventional generation.
method Built a unit commitment model to simulate market legislation and system data.
result Wind energy reduces the operation of gas-fired plants by up to 20%.
GA-MSSR optimizes forex trading rules for higher returns and reduced risk.
problem Noisy market data affects the consistency and profitability of trading algorithms.
method Optimized trading rules derived from technical indicators using a Genetic Algorithm.
result GA-MSSR achieved superior performance with significant positive returns and reduced risk factors.
RAmmStein optimizes liquidity management in AMMs by learning to rebalance efficiently.
problem Optimal control of concentrated liquidity in decentralized exchanges.
method Formulates as an optimal control problem, uses Deep Reinforcement Learning with HJB-QVI.
result Achieves highest net ROI (1.60%) compared to greedy strategies, reduces rebalancing frequency by 85%.
Paper presents fast methods for pricing energy derivatives using mean-reverting jump-diffusion models.
problem Pricing energy derivatives with mean-reverting and occasional spikes.
method Exact and fast simulation of spot price dynamics using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and jump-diffusion processes.
result Apparent computational advantages of the proposed procedures for pricing Asian options, gas storages, and swings.
We propose and discuss some toy models of stock markets using the same operatorial approach adopted in quantum mechanics. Our models are suggested by the discrete nature of the number of shares and of the cash which are exchanged in a real market, and by the existence of conserved quantities, like the total number of s…
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.