A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New method for evaluating LLMs reduces bias in open-ended evaluations.
The paper explores game-theoretic alignment of LLMs with human preferences, finding limitations and conditions.
We solve a continuous-time game-theoretic problem for Kihlstrom-Mirman preferences.
This paper makes a small step towards a non-stochastic version of superhedging duality relations in the case of one traded security with a continuous price path. Namely, we prove the coincidence of game-theoretic and measure-theoretic expectation for lower semicontinuous positive functionals. We consider a new broad de…
We give an exposition and numerical studies of upper hedging prices in multinomial models from the viewpoint of linear programming and the game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk. We also show that, as the number of rounds goes to infinity, the upper hedging price of a European option converges to the solution of…
Study solves HJB equations for time-inconsistent control problems.
Game-theoretic models predict asset prices in financial markets.
In this expository paper we illustrate the generality of game theoretic probability protocols of Shafer and Vovk (2001) in finite-horizon discrete games. By restricting ourselves to finite-horizon discrete games, we can explicitly describe how discrete distributions with finite support and the discrete pricing formulas…
Develops a game-theoretic approach to solve SGEP efficiently.
Interval bankruptcy problems arise in situations where an estate has to be liquidated among a fixed number of creditors and uncertainty about the amounts of the claims is modeled by intervals. We extend in the interval setting the classical results by Curiel, Maschler and Tijs (1987) that characterize division rules wh…
This paper studies robust payoff allocation in submodular games, especially against replication.
Despite the notable successes in video games such as Atari 2600, current AI is yet to defeat human champions in the domain of real-time strategy (RTS) games. One of the reasons is that an RTS game is a multi-agent game, in which single-agent reinforcement learning methods cannot simply be applied because the environmen…
Game-theoretic model captures investor interactions for stock price forecasting.
Selection of input features such as relevant pieces of text has become a common technique of highlighting how complex neural predictors operate. The selection can be optimized post-hoc for trained models or incorporated directly into the method itself (self-explaining). However, an overall selection does not properly c…
We investigate upper and lower hedging prices of multivariate contingent claims from the viewpoint of game-theoretic probability and submodularity. By considering a game between "Market" and "Investor" in discrete time, the pricing problem is reduced to a backward induction of an optimization over simplexes. For Europe…
A game-theoretic approach to multi-criteria ranking from ordinal data.
One often finds in the literature connections between measures of fairness and measures of feature importance employed to interpret trained classifiers. However, there seems to be no study that compares fairness measures and feature importance measures. In this paper we propose ways to evaluate and compare such measure…
We consider the game-theoretic scenario of testing the performance of Forecaster by Sceptic who gambles against the forecasts. Sceptic's current capital is interpreted as the amount of evidence he has found against Forecaster. Reporting the maximum of Sceptic's capital so far exaggerates the evidence. We characterize t…
A new game-theoretic approach balances downside risk with expected reward.
A new approach to group fairness treats it as a bargaining problem.
A game-theoretic framework identifies influential hyperparameters for neural networks.
What is the role of real-time control and learning in the formation of social conventions? To answer this question, we propose a computational model that matches human behavioral data in a social decision-making game that was analyzed both in discrete-time and continuous-time setups. Furthermore, unlike previous approa…
We analyze the dynamics of a forecasting game which exhibits the phenomenon of information cascades. Each agent aims at correctly predicting a binary variable and he/she can either look for independent information or herd on the choice of others. We show that dynamics can be analitically described in terms of a Langevi…
In this article we consider a game theoretic approach to the Risk-Sensitive Benchmarked Asset Management problem (RSBAM) of Davis and Lleo \cite{DL}. In particular, we consider a stochastic differential game between two players, namely, the investor who has a power utility while the second player represents the market …
The 1/3 Financial Rule helps prevent household bankruptcy through balanced spending, savings, and debt repayment.
Paper proposes a game-theoretic approach to generate unlearnable examples.
Proposes a game-theoretic framework for ML trust regulation.
GT-DDP optimizer trains residual networks using game theory.
In this paper, we consider equilibrium strategies under Volterra processes and time-inconsistent preferences embracing mean-variance portfolio selection (MVP). Using a functional Itô calculus approach, we overcome the non-Markovian and non-semimartingale difficulty in Volterra processes. The equilibrium strategy is the…
Improves GANs training through game theory.
In this paper, we propose a gamification approach as a novel framework for smart building infrastructure with the goal of motivating human occupants to reconsider personal energy usage and to have positive effects on their environment. Human interaction in the context of cyber-physical systems is a core component and c…
Energy game-theoretic frameworks have emerged to be a successful strategy to encourage energy efficient behavior in large scale by leveraging human-in-the-loop strategy. A number of such frameworks have been introduced over the years which formulate the energy saving process as a competitive game with appropriate incen…
In this paper, we propose a game theoretical adversarial intervention detection mechanism for reliable smart road signs. A future trend in intelligent transportation systems is ``smart road signs" that incorporate smart codes (e.g., visible at infrared) on their surface to provide more detailed information to smart veh…
We study the origins of the effect in finance and SDE. In particular, we show, in the game-theoretic framework, that market volatility is a consequence of the absence of riskless opportunities for making money and that too high volatility is also incompatible with such opportunities. More precisely, riskles…
New method solves continuous time mean-variance model for consistent investment strategy.
Paper introduces metrics for evaluating multi-agent policies using best response dynamics.
Predicting the outcomes of integrating Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) into the National Aerospace (NAS) is a complex problem which is required to be addressed by simulation studies before allowing the routine access of UAS into the NAS. This thesis focuses on providing 2D and 3D simulation frameworks using a game theore…
The results of a learning process depend on the input data. There are cases in which an adversary can strategically tamper with the input data to affect the outcome of the learning process. While some datasets are difficult to attack, many others are susceptible to manipulation. A resourceful attacker can tamper with l…
Game-theoretic analysis of mining gaps in blockchain systems.
Model optimal growth strategy in a market with short-lived assets.
The paper improves dropout's utility by reducing interactions in deep neural networks.
New algorithm solves minimax games with linear constraints.
Modeling the purposeful behavior of imperfect agents from a small number of observations is a challenging task. When restricted to the single-agent decision-theoretic setting, inverse optimal control techniques assume that observed behavior is an approximately optimal solution to an unknown decision problem. These tech…
The paper analyzes optimal stock position-building strategies in competitive markets.
This paper establishes a non-stochastic analogue of the celebrated result by Dubins and Schwarz about reduction of continuous martingales to Brownian motion via time change. We consider an idealized financial security with continuous price path, without making any stochastic assumptions. It is shown that typical price …
Paper solves a complex stopping problem using regularization and HJB equations.
We consider the mean--variance portfolio optimization problem under the game theoretic framework and without risk-free assets. The problem is solved semi-explicitly by applying the extended Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman equation. Although the coefficient of risk aversion in our model is a constant, the optimal amounts of m…
A large body of research is currently investigating on the connection between machine learning and game theory. In this work, game theory notions are injected into a preference learning framework. Specifically, a preference learning problem is seen as a two-players zero-sum game. An algorithm is proposed to incremental…